The Daily Widget – Monday, Aug 4 – Obama 350, McCain 188 – New Crosstab Project

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


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1. TIDBITS – New Crosstab Project

Here’s how you can help!

I’m in the process of building a new spreadsheet that will make electoral projections based on demographics by state. This will be a very useful fact-checker against the state polls! And you can help if you’re willing. It will be very simple. All I ask you to do (only if you are willing and able) is to post links in any Daily Widget thread to websites with certain kinds of data for a specific state.

With this new data, we will be able to project the electoral vote and the popular vote for Obama and McCain from a different angle, without using state polls.

The process is simple. When you find state data for the demographics listed below, just post a link. I’ll dig through the link and input the data into the new spreadsheet. In the meantime, I’ll be inputting the crosstab info from all the national polls into the same spreadsheet. Your state data plus my crosstab data will give us a projection for Obama and McCain for each state. When we total up the state data, we’ll get a national projection for Obama and McCain.

The data I am seeking is for five different demographics: Registered voters, Voter turnout, Gender, Ethnicity, and Age. Here are the specific questions I’d like to have answered for each state.

1. Voter Registration:
- What percent of the state’s population is currently registered to vote?
- What percent of the state’s population was registered to vote in 2004? 2000? (1996? 1992?)

2. Turnout:
- What percent of the state’s registered voters turned out in 2004? 2000? (1996? 1992?)

3. Gender:
- What percent of the state’s population is female/male?
- What percent of the state’s registered voters is female/male?
- What percent of the state’s turnout in 2004 was female/male? 2000? (1996? 1992?)

4. Ethnicity: Same three questions as Gender, but with this breakdown instead of female/male:
- African American
- Hispanic (all)
- White Non-Hispanic
- All others

5. Age Group: Same questions as Gender, but with this breakdown (or close to it):
- 18 to 29
- 30 to 49
- 50 to 64
- 65 and older

We can call this the Crosstab Project. I don’t expect everyone to participate, and I will be grateful to those who do. ¡Muchas Gracias!


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2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


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3. NEW STATE POLLS

Obama is narrowing the gap in Alaska and Arizona. The new poll for New York shows Obama with an 18-point lead, but it qualifies as a lolpoll since the percentage of Undecideds is greater than McCain’s take (the same could be said for the Oklahoma poll). Missouri switches back to red as Survey USA shows McCain +5. Survey USA had McCain up by 7 in their last Missouri poll a month ago.


Alaska Obama 42, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 7/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona Obama 38, McCain 43, Nader 3 (Behavioral Research Center, 7/30, +/- 5.0, 401 RV)
Kentucky Obama 35, McCain 56 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 7/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 44, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 7/31, +/- 2.6, 1459 LV)
New York Obama 44, McCain 26, Undecided 30 (Siena, 7/23, +/- 3.8, 671 LV)
North Carolina Obama 43, McCain 47 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 7/30, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 24, McCain 56, Undecided 20 (Sooner Poll, 7/23, +/- 3.5, 750 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


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4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


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5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


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6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


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7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








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8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. Thanks for the project.

I will spend more time on it this afternoon, after work.

Here is NC %of registered voters link.
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?ID=70

And current voters registered at the top of this page:
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?id=69

More to come....

[phrigndumass]

2. Thanks tek! :)

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

Now we will have two ways to catch them cheating.

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good Morning!

Start here for Maine:

http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/votreg.htm

I'll check back later. I'm still up to my ears in boxes. It looks like it breaks it up by year, county and town though. Hope that helps you. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. Great stuff, all the way back to 1994 ... Thanks! :)

Usually when they break it up, they also give a total.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Off to work kick

Have a good day :D

[Willo]

6. Hope this helps.

New York State Board of Elections - Enrollment by County
http://www.elections.state.ny.us/EnrollmentCounty.html

Youth Vote
Circle (The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement)
http://www.civicyouth.org/?page_id=154



This guide lists recommended sources of statistical information on U.S. elections available in Gelman Library or on the World Wide Web.
http://www.gwu.edu/gelman/guides/social/election.html#section2

[phrigndumass]

9. Thanks WIllo! It's strange to me how NY and New England use "enrolled"

instead of the term "registered" ...

Great youth stats from Tufts!

The historical voting tables by Congressional District from your last link will definitely help.

Thanks! :hi:

[DavidDvorkin]

7. The new project is an excellent idea

[phrigndumass]

10. Thanks! We can use Rasmussen for their crosstabs

... and pretty much leave their score alone. Traitors! (kidding, lol)

:hi:

[TheDoorbellRang]

8. Here's some stats for Missouri

Voter turnout since 2000:
http://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/s_default.asp?id=results

MO stats comparing who voted in non-presidential election years:
http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_FastFacts2006/missouri_final.pdf

If I get a chance, I'll see what else I can find for you. Thanks for all your work on this, phrigndumass! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

11. Thanks TDR! We've been registering voters in St. Louis

So it's nice to see some MO stats.

Love the young voter stats ... Missouri had 4% more young voters than the national average according to your second link.

Thanks! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

12. Thanks to everyone for PM-ing the links as well!

It looks like I have links to 19 states worth of data so far. I hope to have this all entered by the end of the coming weekend and have some initial results to show everyone next Monday.

Thank You!

(on edit: I'm like a kid in a candy store, lol)

[Demeter]

14. I Don't Know If We Should Be Enabling Your Habit, P-Man

I'm working the primary tomorrow--pray for a low humidity or a high rate of air conditioning (neither very likely).

Repeat your request until you have enough data--so that people don't lose track of what they are trying to find. If I'm sane on Weds or Thurs, I can look for Mich. info.

[phrigndumass]

15. Do they have detox for mathaholics? lol :)

I'm looking to score some digits, starting to get the shakes :D

Someone beat you to the Michigan stats, but thanks! I've been getting PM's all day with data from everywhere.

We had very high humidity today in Illinois. Our heat index was 112 degrees. Hope it doesn't find its way to Michigan!

:hi:

[tekisui]

13. Hey, phrign,

This link could be very helpful. It is the 2004 election results. The link is to NC, but in the upper right hand you can choose each state.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/NC/P/00/epolls.0.html

The numbers are who voted by percentage. Gender, race, etc. It is not the actual populations of each state, I will keep looking.

Adding: NC Population numbers:
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/37000.html

[phrigndumass]

16. The exit polls from CNN will go a long way to getting this done, thanks tekisui!

I was actually digging around on CNN for this data, but I didn't manage to find what you found.

:yourock: