Obama's fall in the poll has nothing to do with McCain attacking him.

[Drunken Irishman]

I am tired of hearing this.

Obama's trip had two possible scenarios in terms of poll numbers:

1. A sustained gain that went well into August, the game changer some thought could happen with his trip.

2. A quick gain that only lasted a few days and eventually returned to the average number.

Scenario number 2 is exactly what happened.

Let's look at where Obama was the Saturday of before the start of his trip:



Prior to his trip, Obama led McCain 45-43. His trip expanded that lead to 49-40 on the Sunday after it began and then it quickly returned to...45-44, or a +1 McCain increase. Not a surprise, but how could it have happened so fast? Easy, Obama's trip was not about creating a quick bounce, rather to plant the seeds of leadership on the world stage. Obama knew this when he began, which is exactly why he said he didn't expect a huge jump in the polls. This type of bounce is essentially what a candidate sees post-convention. It's only temporary and expands Candidate A's lead over Candidate B by a significant margin, or the convention closes the gap. However, these bumps rarely ever maintain throughout the rest of the election cycle.

That's just how it is. The media won't report this, however, I had my doubts Obama would keep his significant lead over McCain. I knew there was a chance the bump was solely manufactured by the fact he was dominating the news with positive press, which often influences many voters, hence the post-convention bump rarely sustaining itself.

Obama didn't lose his 9-point lead because McCain went negative. Obama lost his 9-point lead because it was a superficial lead to begin with. The campaign knew this, I sorta knew it, though I didn't want to believe it, and so now that it's happened, it shouldn't be a surprise. Obama is right back where he was pre-trip and expect these numbers to fluctuate from 45-48% for Obama until the convention, where he'll probably build another large lead, only to watch it dwindle down to 1-2 points again. So don't be surprised if that happens, in fact expect it.

[Richardo]

1. I heart rational posts in this forum

K&R.

:patriot:

[Muttocracy]

2. Obama floor = McCain ceiling. nt

[cbc5g]

3. +1 excellent analysis

k&r

[angee_is_mad]

4. Thank you

for your calm and reasonable post. People go into panic mode if Barack isn't leading by double digits.

Remember, Barack is an educated black man with a muslim name running for president. That is some white people's worst nightmare.

As I have said before, this election is going to be close. Hell it may be the closest election in recent memory, but Barack will WIN!!!!

YES WE CAN!!!

[greenbriar]

5. according to the map, obama is at 316 to McCains 209 electoral votes

http://www.electoral-vote.com/




I don't see that as him being behind

[AtomicKitten]

6. We understand that, however, the wingnuts are convinced ugly works.

Since ugly is all they have, expect more of it. Of note is that ugly just doesn't seem to have that special "magic" anymore, and that realization is an underlying tenet of the Obama campaign. America seems to be finding ugly less filling.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Let them continue it.

They'll be surprised when it does not work.

I think this attack on Obama will backfire.

[AtomicKitten]

9. the attacks are so over-the-top and ham-handed, they are laughable

[cbc5g]

8. McSames attacks might have come for that exact reason

They were timed to come right near the end of Obama's trip and after it. They want their supporters to think that they can make Obama fall in the numbers FAST by attacking. They want the narrative to be that McCains attacks are effective when in actuality they aren't. So they are making a plea for money and media attention. This is desperation.

[Imagevision]

10. Idon't know? M$M and pollsters are repug owned - take it with a grain of salt?