What polls or opinions do you believe?

[old mark]

CNN said this morning McCain is gaining ground on Obama.
Another news program this morning said that Obama is pulling further ahead of McCain.

Lies, damn lies and statistics?

What is reality?

mark

[NYC_SKP]

1. Pay no attention to the MSM and the National Polls...Instead,

I like to follow the state by state trends at pollster and the electoral trends at fivethirtyeight.com.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6573215&mesg_id=6573215

[elocs]

2. There is no point in obsessing about national polls.

This is a 50 state race, not national.

[jkshaw]

3. None

Polls, that is. I take even Keith Olbermann's opinions with a grain of salt this early in the election.

[Kerrytravelers]

4. I use to believe the final poll on Election Day, the election returns.

I'm not so sure I can even believe them anymore, not after 2000 and 2004.

[The River]

5. I Don't Believe Polls

the sample is always way too small
and hasn't kept pace with changing
phone demographics.

It's less about the ideology of the media
or various polling firms than it is about the $$$$$$$$$$$

No close race = no news = lower revenue
No close race = no need for continuous polling =
lower revenue.

If the truth were told McSames numbers would
be just lightly better than *bushs current #'s.
Somewhere around...let me guess.....29% ?

[WeDidIt]

6. Only one poll counts

That's the antionwide poll that will be taken on November 4.

EVERY poll the media touts is bullshit for the msot part. From there, the campaigns themselves generally ahve pretty good internal polling but the only way you can tell what those polls say is to see how the campaigns act and react.

[Bill McBlueState]

7. For me it's not about "believing" or not believing a poll

We should try to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each poll, and then decide how much confidence to put in its result.

[FrenchieCat]

8. Polls are part of the tool kit that gives this country's corporate media

the talking point support that they need.

They do effect voters eventually.......as that is what they are designed to do.

I believe that pollsters have agendas, and for the most part, calling homes at 3:00 p.m. on a weekday in a particular zip code area is the way to get this done.

I don't believe the polls, but I believe that they do affect voters in the long haul. This is why daily polling is extremely dangerous, and why our corporate media are traitors to the cause of democracy.

[sniffa]

9. My own

[PBS Poll-435]

10. Polls are a forecasting tool, nothing more.

They are not a crystal ball.

[LWolf]

11. I don't use polls, and I don't trust anyone's opinion but my own. nt

[DFLforever]

12. Pollster.com aggregate poll is the soundest.

I avoid RCP because of their lack of transparency.

The tracking polls are interesting. It looks like McCain's assaults have bottomed out for the time being. Which is telling because Obama's numbers are usually at the lowest Sat through Tues. when weekend numbers factor in. No matter the few points he's pulled O down, McCain himself wasn't able to get above his usual ceiling in the lower 40's.

I pay zero attention to any of the pundits on cable TV and that includes the good guys as well. I don't trust the media bubble. They're usually the last ones to know what is going on in the country.

edit for wrong word.

[old mark]

13. Thanks for the responses.

I have not been much of a fan of politics till this election.
I'm amazed that most people don't seem to see the manipulative shit
on the so-called news programs.

mark