Is Obama preparing a 'powder keg' ?

[grantcart]

At a Congressional campaign office the other day the Chief of Operations mentioned that they were working on a 'powder keg' for their advertising.

What he meant that they weren't going to spend anything until September and October when concentrated buys would have more impact rather than spreading the buys out.


Obama's frugal approach had him sitting on about $ 90 million the last time we heard.

If I am not mistaken that money has to be spent by August 28th.

McCain would also have to spend all of his primary money (about $ 25 million) before his September Convention, after which he will receive about $85 million for the GE.

Will we be seeing an Obama advertising powder keg in August (already announced $ 5 million ad buy during the Olympics)?

[MonkeyFunk]

1. Smart

I don't know why people here insist he try to dominate the news cycle every day. That's just dumb - the real campaign will start in September.

[depakid]

9. Were you cognizant in 2004?

We got KILLED using this approach in July-August.

[MonkeyFunk]

11. Yes

I've been following politics for over 40 years.

Obama doesn't need to make news every day, as some here claim. That has nothing to do with Kerry. It wasn't the timing that hurt Kerry. It was his lack of a cogent response, and a couple bone-headed decisions. He didn't get killed in the summer.

[depakid]

15. From my recollection, by the time September rolled around, the campaign had been pummelled

and barely raised a hand against Bush with its own ads. The excuse at the time for "going black" was that the campaign didn't have the money.

That's not the case this year, so lets hope that they use their advantage to define McCain and make their case for NO THIRD TERM for Bush. They won't get a second chance anymore than Kerry did- already a lot of these gaffes and incredibly stupid statements are sinking right into the memory hole- which is where they'll be come September

[MonkeyFunk]

17. Obama's not being pummelled.

He's doing fine.

[BlooInBloo]

22. There are as many differences between 2004 and now as there are similarities....

See, for example:

http://www.americablog.com/2008/08/why-mccains-personal-attacks-on-obama.html

Remember and learn from the past, but don't let it be an anchor around your neck.

[AndyTiedye]

20. Kerry Made a Perfectly Good Response. The MSM REFUSED TO AIR IT!

…and then had the audacity to diss him for not responding.

[MonkeyFunk]

24. Then it was a poor response

Now if you're saying the media refused to air Kerry ads, that would be something. But these battles aren't fought on the 3-digit cable channels. Kerry's response was inadequate if he relied on CNN to air it.

[AndyTiedye]

28. He Would Have Had To Spend ALL His Money In August to Make a Dent in the Media Slimefest

Then he would have been out of money for the final stretch. Disaster!

[grantcart]

30. Kerry also had limited options because he accepted public funding

If he got swiftboated Obama could unload millions in ads overnight.

[MonkeyFunk]

32. Well this whole argument presumes

that he lost because of the swiftboaters I'm not convinced of that. I don't know that they changed a lot of minds - just threw raw meat to the base.

[grantcart]

34. actually I am just presuming that if that was the reason it doesn't apply to Obama

which is your whole point


Phrigndumass has the following chart which is very selective in the events that it does cover but it does reinforce the point that after the swiftboat ads Kerry was unable to rebound.

But everything is different, as you point out. Not only is Obama and McCain different, the fact that people have seen the swiftboating thing done means that atleast the element of surprise is gone.

[SeattleGirl]

16. Maybe so, but there was also that small matter of the

stolen election in Ohio.

[Hippo_Tron]

23. The convention was in late July in 2004, not in late August

Everything in an election cycle is divided into pre-convention and post convention and post convention is what counts for real. The Swift Boat ads were devastating because they came out after the Democratic Convention and Kerry didn't have the money to respond.

If they had come out pre-convention then he would have still had primary money to spend responding to them and a chance to undo their damage with the convention news cycle.

This Britney/Paris thing is the tip of the iceberg and hardly effective enough to make a fuss about. Wait until after the convention when they run ads about the alleged Hamas ties, Reverand Wright redux, and oh yea did we mention Obama is black. That's the shit they are really going to need to respond to and that is what they are saving their powder for.

[depakid]

26. Dry powder democrats have never proven effective in my lifetime

and like MonkeyFunk- I've been watching and/or involved on the ground with politics campaigns for a long time.

[MonkeyFunk]

29. But there's nothing egregious to respond to

the Britney/Paris ad is just dumb, but it's not a vicious smear on his character.

Obama's doing fine.

[slinkerwink]

41. that we did

[pot luck]

2. I thought he could use the money raised in the primaries for the GE

since he didn't accept public financing?

[grantcart]

6. Money from those that have maxed out on their primary money would definitely have to be spent

before the primary season is over if he wanted to also take money for the GE.


I am not sure about the rest of the money raised during the primary.

I do know that Hillary cannot use her GE funds to help pay for primary debt, and that she could not use her GE money for the GE election if she was on the ticket as a VP.

If he can then it would appear that Obama is preparing for an even bigger powder keg for the post convention.

[pot luck]

13. Oh, okay.

[Hamlette]

3. did you see the spread sheet they did for the primaries?

it predicted the % of votes and number of delegates for each contest, caucuses, state and county conventions, primaries. It was eerie how close they came and in many cases were spot on.

I'd LOVE to see the spread sheet for the general election but my guess is they are keeping it close to the vest.

I have confidence in these guys.

There was a blog post a couple of months ago in a discussion about whether Obama has what it takes to win this thing. It said, basically, I'm from Chicago and I feel sorry for these people (Hillary, McCain) they will have no idea what hit them. It went on to give details which made me believe it was from a person who knew what she was talking about.

[grantcart]

7. I didn't see it but there was a youtube of Russert talking about it

They had gotten it by an error in emailing and they were stunned at how closely the Obama campaign had performed according to the plan at that point.

People are still completely unaware of what they are doing on voter registration. Once colleges open - its really going to take off.

[Hamlette]

12. “The largest field operation in the history of American politics.”

He's following it at fivethirtyeight.com It is really quite astonishing. He has 20 field offices in VA and is expected to have 60 by the election. McCain has 6. He'll have 24 in Wisconsin by mid August, McCain has 5.

He's expected to have 200 paid organizers in each of PA and FL (at least). They are putting big bucks in it. I think it is a good idea. Nate Silver (the guy who runs 538 makes a great case for what its so smart.

I saw the Russert thing too, it was in the middle of the primary season but someone did a comparison at the end and it was just as accurate as the early stuff. And it had been made MONTHS before some of those primaries.

I know a couple of ppl working for him. They are very smart ppl. It could happen.

[grantcart]

35. I saw the heading I have to look at it tomorrow

[flamingdem]

4. Good news. Blast 'em Barry;) nt

[DFLforever]

5. I don't think he has to spend all his primary money by the

convention because he's not being publicly financed. But McCain does.

If they're not doing any large advertising until the Olympics, I hope they create some excitment for next week's news cycles...maybe releasing their July fundraising numbers early, maybe picking a VP or creating diversions around picking a VP.

I badly want the topic changed from McCain's slimy ads.

[grantcart]

8. you might be right but he does have to spend the money from the people that

have given the max - or stop receiving any money/send back their GE donations.

If your correct on the other then it would mean a bigger September 'powder keg'.

[dkf]

33. After the slugfest with Hillary, I'm sure he's already spent

enough from his primary and general contributors.

[GoesTo11]

10. They need some tactical surprises and innovations

As we can see, just like in 2000 and 2004, the media is totally in bed with the Republicans. More now than ever, as they probably realize that in an Obama presidency a lot of crimes against the people would be exposed.

What's the formula to take that on? We all know the onslaught is coming. Gore didn't know it was coming. Kerry knew but didn't know how to respond. I hope to heaven Obama's figured out a strategy and is just keeping his powderkeg dry. That last 2 months will be the key.

[Imagevision]

14. Too soon to blast McCain, 2-3 weeks before the GE. would be most effective then

Obama can let everything about Johnny be put out there, am I'm not talking Lohan material!

[GoesTo11]

18. What percent of Americans know the basic dirt on McCain?

How many people do you think know about calling his wife a ****?

(Actually, this would be a great push poll question, for women only: Does the fact that John McCain called his wife a **** make you more or less likely to support him?)

How many know about dumping his first wife and the other affairs?

How many know about cooperating with his captors?

How many know any of the details of Keating 5?

How many know how rich the McCains are? How connected his father and grandfather were and how the connections helped him?

What it really means to be 894 in a class of 899?

[DFLforever]

19. These things can't be put in ads by the campaign.

This is the kind of stuff we have to spread by e-mail and word of mouth. Make sure everyone we know is up to speed on the real history of John McCain.

[AndyTiedye]

21. Can't 527s Run Those Kinds of Ads?

[DFLforever]

25. Sure, they can run damaging ads.

I'm not sure how they could effectively handle this stuff with the exception of the Keating 5 business.

And you'd have the problem of getting anything anti-McCain placed on TV.

[AndyTiedye]

31. They Can Black Us Out Completely, Even Advertising

and they could do that to the campaign as well as all 527s. It would not surprise me if the do just that.

[MonkeyFunk]

36. no they can't

don't be silly. You think the networks will refuse advertisements from the Obama campaign?

[AndyTiedye]

42. They Would If That Was The Only Way to Keep it Close Enough to Steal

[sufrommich]

43. I think there are FCC regulations that television media

has to offer both presidential candidates an equal opportunity to buy ads.

[nc4bo]

45. That's the key. Take my very, very, very repug friend for example...

We go to art classes every Friday and we don't really talk about politics well, one comment she made about Bush and Offshore Drilling (I just kept my mouth shut) but she opened the door again when she mentioned my Obama bumper sticker.

She said she didn't trust Obama (she's All Fox, All the Time), brought up the Muslim thang yada-yada. Since I don't want to lose my friend, I just countered it with a one or two facts.

1. That Big Oil is sitting on 68 million acres of land that is ready to be developed and 2) Keating 5.

She said she had no idea about either one and you know what? I believe her 100%.

After our quick chat, she said she wasn't too enthused with McSame (or Obama - I think she said it to not hurt my feelings) and didn't really feel inspired enough to vote in this election.

Maybe she'll bring up the topic again and I'll pass on some O info but I'm not counting on it.

You would be SURPRISED at how many people just do not know about the REAL McCain.

[BlooInBloo]

27. I don't know, but I've seen enough of him to know that he doesn't do anything without a plan....

And a good one at that.

But alas he doesn't confide in me (the fucker!) - so I dunno the details. I'll be curious to see it, though - and hope for its success.

[trocar]

37. Worried

I am worried that the low road is going to win. I listened to part of an Obama speech today and he used more "ah's" than about anything else. He is too distracted by this crap emanating from the McCain outhouse? Please don't let this stupid McCain BS be the straw that breaks our collective camel of hope. We NEED to win.

[Teaser]

38. of course you are

All anyone on this board does is worry. Worry and panic, they are what DU does best.


Welcome home.

[grantcart]

40. your reply concerned me so much I couldn't sleep last night

[Vinca]

39. Ah ha! I suspected he had something like that up his sleeve.

Get McBush to waste money on stupid Britney ads, then cream him when he can't afford much of a response. Barack is so smart.

[DemocracyInaction]

44. It will be a "hearts and flowers" powder keg

Unfortunately, I think that's all you are going to see. I don't think they will do an effective job of linking McCain to Bush. I'm sure that none of the stuff we know and want so badly to get out there will be touched with a ten foot pole. We always fail to understand the mentality level of the average American---their entertainment is nothing but who can stab whom in the back first and win the prize....they love blood letting. That's why we always die with our spotless kid gloves on. I doubt we will see really vicious 527 ads. We always get our panties in a wad over them. By the way, months ago, one of the slime behind the "swift boat ads" was praying for an Obama win because he said that Kerry's swiftboating will look like a public service anouncement when they are through with Obama.

[nc4bo]

46. Would Chicago politics = a powder keg?

Obama is viciously cunning not stupid and definitely not conventional and he has surrounded himself with experienced and knowledgeable people.

I think he's got this, I really do (crosses fingers and toes).

[grantcart]

47. good point - a lot of people underestimated him Chicago too.