http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article753812.eceBy Adam C. Smith, Times Political Editor
In print: Sunday, August 3, 2008
Who wins Florida and the White House may boil down to struggle between grandma and her grandkids.
There is a stark generation gap in this election. John McCain is winning over seniors, Barack Obama is winning the youngest voters, and the repercussions could extend well past November.
"This may be the first generational election in recent history," said Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute. "This is the first election where the split by age is so dramatic.''
A Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters released last week found Democrat Obama trouncing Republican McCain among those under 35 years old, 66 percent to 27 percent. But among Florida voters 55 and older, McCain led Obama by 10 percentage points, 51 percent to 41 percent.
Overall, Quinnipiac showed Florida a dead heat, with Obama at 46 percent support and McCain at 44.
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"If you're Obama you're encouraged but you're also scared to death,'' Newhouse said of the recent polls. "Your victory depends on a huge margin and turnout among 18- to 34-year-olds, who are historically the least likely to go to the polls."
Hal Alterman, a Democratic activist at the On Top of the World retirement community in Clearwater, sees it first-hand. He worries that Obama could lose many Democratic-leaning seniors, partly because passionate former Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters still feel wounded and partly because of the youth-oriented approach of the Obama campaign.
"When you keep talking about tomorrow, people who are older start feeling like yesterday,'' said Alterman, a former Clinton backer who at 68 is among the younger residents at On Top of the World.
"There's a discomfort, a real feeling of distrust, with Obama," said Alterman, recounting how a 20-something Obama organizer recently visited his club and instead of explaining the strengths of Obama, mainly instructed the 70- and 80-year-olds to update their voter registration signatures.
"Part of it is the generational divide," said Alterman, "and part is loyalty to the Clintons. She was carrying the banner for us, and he was the 'them.' Now the Obama people are saying, 'Here's the revolution, come march behind our banner and join us,' but they are not doing a good job of reaching out and saying here's why we need you."
Florida seniors used to be a reliable, decisive voting block for Democrats. But time has shifted that critical piece of the electorate (about 27 percent of all Florida voters in 2004 were at least 60, according to exit polls) from FDR acolytes to Ronald Reagan fans. President Bush won Florida voters over age 60 by five percentage points in 2004, which was his margin overall. At the same time, the only age group of Florida voters John Kerry won as voters under 30, which he won by 17 points.
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More indication that having Hillary Clinton on the ticket would help Obama defeat McCain.
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