One thing to keep an eye on about the Gallup poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

McCain is at 44%, but notice he hasn't been able to push his lead above 44% at all since Obama won the nomination. This may change tomorrow, who knows, but as of right now, McCain tops out at 44%, while Obama tops out at nearly 50%. This is a bump for McCain, but it seems every time he hits 44%, he tops out and then climbs downward again. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama was up again tomorrow by a point.

[BluegrassDem]

1. McCain is at his ceiling, that's why Obama will win

Obama's floor numbers are at least as good as McCain's. Obama's numbers can only improve come election time. That's why I know he'll win. McCain can't ever garner no more than the mid-40's...EVER.

[elocs]

Democrats...we do love to obsess about polls. Almost as much as about the death of a Republican.

One thing to remember though, this is a 50 state election, not a national election.

[FrenchieCat]

4. We hang on to these daily polls, almost as much as we hang on

to every word uttered by McCain's corporate media pundits.

[panader0]

2. What blows my mind about the ever-changing numbers is

how some people can keep changing their minds. How can some people be so stupid? One week they feel this way and the next week that way? Shit, it's beyond me, these polls............

[writes3000]

3. They're polling a different group of people everyday. Of course, the polls are going to swing.

But Drunken-Irishman's point is right on.

Look at the range of each candidate. Obama's range is consistently better than McCain's.

[DLnyc]

5. Another thing to keep in mind: Gallup is strongly red-biased.

Take a look at Pollkatz's Bush Approval graph (below). Gallup's little red diamonds are very consistently several points above the mean of all the polls. Just sayin' . . .

A better idea of the national trend, if you think that is important, is, IMHO, Pollster:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

[grantcart]

6. more critical is the lack of third party options

There is growing evidence that third party candidates, including Nader are going to kill McCain.

A poll in Maricopa County (Phoenix) showed that only 1 out of 10 Nader supporters is a Democrat.

Every poll that includes third party shows a big shift towards Obama.

I think that among conservatives there is going to be a massive protest vote against McCain.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I was right.

I said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama was up again tomorrow by a point.

He is.



It won't be a large increase for Obama, in fact, I believe he'll probably only hold a 1-3 lead over McCain from here until the convention, but that's ok. Again, Obama shows he can hit the 45% mark, McCain clearly has yet to prove he can.

Even when it's even, McCain's ceiling is 44%, while Obama's lowest point appears to be McCain's ceiling.

[cbc5g]

8. gratz...also note that if it were REALLY a tie we would expect some days with McSame ahead

Based on margin of error. But that hasn't happened yet since Hillary conceded.