Battlegrounds: Ten states most likely to switch party in November

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
Friday Line: Battleground States

(NOTE: Number 10 is guessed least likely of the "likeliest" to switch parties; number 1, most likely.)

....10. Florida (Bush won with 52 percent in 2004) Previous ranking: 10

9. Pennsylvania (John Kerry won with 51 percent in 2004): Democrats are feeling more and more optimistic about their chances of keeping the Keystone State on their side in the fall. Vice presidential picks could make a real difference here. If John McCain opts for former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, the state could well move up the Line; if Barack Obama goes with Scranton (Pa.) native Sen. Joe Biden (Del.) as his second-in-command, Democrats will strengthen their hand. (Previous ranking: 8)

8. Virginia (Bush, 54 percent): The seriousness with which Gov. Tim Kaine (D) moves this state up a slot on the Line. Kaine isn't as popular in the Commonwealth as former governor Mark Warner (D) but a native son on the ticket would almost certainly help Obama. (Previous ranking: 9)

7. Colorado (Bush, 52 percent): The recent Quinnipiac-washingtonpost.com survey made us think twice about how large the Democrats' gains have been in the Rocky Mountain State. (Previous ranking: 6)

6. Ohio (Bush, 51 percent): Republicans insist that McCain is the perfect Republican candidate to win in the Buckeye State. And, if Obama's struggles to court the blue-collar, economic voters anywhere, it's likely to be felt most here. (Previous ranking: 4)

5. Michigan (Kerry, 51 percent) Previous ranking: 5

4. New Hampshire (Kerry, 50 percent): If you believe former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (Mass.) is the frontrunner as McCain's veep pick (and we do), then the Granite State represents Republicans' best chance of switching a Democratic state from 2004. McCain has lasting appeal in New Hampshire and, unlike in many other states, will run even (or better) against Obama among political independents. (Previous ranking: 7)

3. New Mexico (Bush, 50 percent): McCain's next door neighbor appeal should help in New Mexico -- a state where demographic trends are moving in Democrats' direction. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Nevada (Bush, 50 percent) Previous ranking: 3

1. Iowa (Bush, 50 percent): Republicans concede this state is close to a sure-thing for Obama. The Hawkeye State has been at the center of the last two general election fights (in 2000 and 2004) but looks to be far less competitive this time around. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/08/friday_line_battleground_state.html

[Eric J in MN]

1. Obama will win New Hampshire. So will Jeanne Shaheen.

Democrats are doing well in New England these days.

[featherman]

2. Mostly pro-McCain "the race is tight' BS from WaPo

They couldn't put all 10 as moving from GOP to Dem so they had to come up with SOMETHING. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire...indeed... hah... in their dreams

[fasttense]

3. I thought PA routinely voted for Democrats in the presidential election.

They go repuke sometimes with federal and state reps but in the presidential I thought they always went for Democrats.

I seriously doubt Obama was ever in a position to lose PA.

[DU9598]

5. 2004

I never understood in 2004 while the media kept saying Pennsylvania was in play. It was never really close and Kerry walked away with it there. I just think the media needs a "big" state to have in play that belongs to the Dems.

[DU9598]

4. Woo Hoo Iowa

I'm from Iowa, Iowa! Land where the tall corn grows!! Woo Hoo. Deep, dark blue from now on, baby!

[phrigndumass]

6. Good read, DMM :)

To add to it, here are the current poll results for the states (Pennsylvania isn't even close):



:hi:

[DeepModem Mom]

7. Very interesting, phrigndumass -- thanks!

:hi:

[MikeyCNY]

8. If McCain is truly awful in the debates and Bayh is VP

Indiana will flip. Easily.

[depakid]

9. Come election night, if Pennsylvamia is projected red, we'll know the national results

If Pennsylvania remains blue and Virginia projects blue- we'll also know the national results.

[NorthCarolina]

10. I believe North Carolina can be included in that list also

eom

[mnhtnbb]

11. Obama definitely has a chance in NC. The polls are much closer in NC

between Obama and McCain than they were at this time for Kerry/Edwards v Bush/Cheney in 04.
The right choice for Veep could put Obama ahead.

[AwakeAtLast]

12. I will state for the record again: Don't count Indiana out

I see 10 Obama signs to one McLame sticker. Yes I said sticker. I don't think anyone wants to put a McLame sign in their yard. :D

[eppur_se_muova]

13. Soon as I land a new job, this is my donations list. nt