So..........Is the race close? Does McCain REALLY have a chance?

[Proud Liberal Dem]

As somebody who has been closely observing this election (possibly closer than any other election in recent memory) I have been veering wildly from being exuberant about Obama's chances to win in November to being cautiously optimistic about the possibility (god forbid) of McCain somehow edging him out and becoming the next President.
In regards to Obama, I hear about lots of polls showing Obama winning most states and even being competitive in some traditionally red states (even here in Indiana of all places). Additionally, Obama's trip abroad seems to have worked out beautifully for him in terms of clearly demonstrating that he has the intelligence and personality capable of being a (better) world leader and helping blunt McCain's attacks on his foreign policy positions while McCain and his enablers and supporters seem reduced to whimpering pitifully about the media's positive coverage of him and making snide and desperate attacks against him.
Yet many pundits (yeah, I know) seem to be suggesting that the election is a lot more "competitive" (than what it seems to me) and I also have to remind myself about how Kerry was "swiftboated" in the 2004 election, as well as the pernicious yet clingy "rumors" about Obama and his wife and their past associations that might lead people (i.e. white people) to cast an anti-Obama vote for McCain. Election fraud and malfeasance (if it IS really close) remains a definite possibility and the media, for all of their positive coverage of Obama, also previously spent hours circulating wild rumors and speculation about him and his wife, their acquaintances and they still seem to be giving McCain a largely "free ride" on a lot of things so I don't think that I can completely close my mind to the possibility of McCain somehow winning if only as a result of Obama being unable to overcome some of the above concerns.
Despite these concerns, however, I still can't really see how McCain is going to pull a win off in this election short of Obama's campaign suffering a catastrophic implosion or some kind of MAJOR scandal and I'm not even fully convinced it's going to be a close one (or at least as close as the MSM seems to be making it out to be).
What are everybody else's feelings and observations about this race (so far)?

[mediaman007]

1. Agree completely!

We've seen the best of John McCain. He has shown us all that he has. A blue chip VP might get him some attention, but only for one news cycle.

[Virginia Dare]

8. It sounds like he can't find any A-listers to do it..

he's reduced to the B-List, aka Mittsy McRomney.

[KittyWampus]

2. So many Democratic party offices have opened up across the country since Dean headed

the DNC, we have a fighting chance to battle election fraud.

[uppityperson]

3. In a true, honest race? He's done. With lies, cheating, fraud? He's got a chance.

It is a long ways until the election and they will pull all sorts of stuff from direct lies to innuendos to disenfranchising voters to outright fraud.

Realize though, I am a realistic pragmatic cynic.

[AndyTiedye]

4. The Question is How Many Votes Can They Steal

[question everything]

5. "The horses running back to the burning barn"

was a comment made by my spouse the other day.

Meaning, as much as many voters blame the Republicans for the bad news that we hear every day, they may vote for a Republican as a matter of habit.

But I think that it is more than that and, yes, Obama's background is a factor which, I hope, the campaign will know how to handle.

As it would have been with Hillary.

For two years now, poll after poll showed that a "no name Democrat" was preferred as the next president. Yet, when specific names were mentioned, the support dropped.

I do worry when poll show that among African Americans, the support for Obama is overwhelming. Something like 90% or so. Was there ever such a support to previous Democratic candidates? This may paint Obama as the "black candidate" instead of a candidate who happened to be black. (I know that for many DUers there is no difference, but there is).

Obama started as transcending race and, no doubt, still wants to present himself this way. But the rally by Oprah, the overwhelming win in the black communities during the primaries, the bullying by the Black Congressional Caucus of other members to "not stand in a way of a brother winning the White House" - shifted his image from a candidate who happened to be black to a "black candidate."

And this worries many voters. No, we are not a color blind society and bad economic conditions tend to awaken racist feelings among many unemployed.

I no longer listen to pundits - except from what I read on occasion on DU - but I wonder whether his current trip may hurt him, generating by some the urge to say: you are not a President, yet. I don't know.

Yes, we will win. I think that many Republicans will stay home because they do not like McCain: he is too old, too tired, not "enough" rabid credentials.

Both Kerry and, I think, Obama, have tried to distance themselves from being strongly pro-choice, often offering caveats. I think that Obama has to distance himself from being the "black candidate.' Why? Because we have an elections to win. I think that most African Americans will understand this, and I hope that Muslim Americans will understand this, too, if there are no women in Muslim scarves being prominent behind him.

[griffi94]

7. that's a really

well thought out piece.
i think cautious optimism is called for. i absolutely believe that obama can win, but imo it's going to be a steeper hill to climb
than many here think.
the habits of how people will vote will come into play i think. some of the very things that are obamas strengths will also have downsides. he's attracted a lot of new voters, but that has cost him a small percentage of the old reliable voters.
jmho but i think who wins in nov. will come down to less than a million votes in a few battle ground states.
the polls that show obama competing in states like new mexico, colorado, and virginia are welcome news, but pennsylvania is also seriously in play, and according to recent polls michigan as well.
i think obama can be the next president, but i also think mccain has a pretty good chance as well.

[VADem11]

6. The Myth of A Toss-Up Election

I posted this before but it can't hurt to post it again.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz-thomas-e-mann-and-larry-j-sabato/the-myth-of-a-toss-up-ele_b_113827.html

I think McCain has a ceiling and once he and Obama are side by side, the race will break for Obama. He is ahead where it counts, the state polls. I think of this like 1980 where it didn't break for Reagan until the end.

[AlinPA]

9. Yes it will be close. The media and R's have yet to go full throat on God, Guns, Gays and Flags.

When they bomb Iran, wave the flags, get all the anti-gay messages, anti-gay marriage bills at the state level, prayer in schools and creationism advertisements going with McCain holding his bible, it will be close.

[BlooInBloo]

10. Of course it's dead-close. Obama's black.