The Daily Widget – Wednesday, July 23 – Obama 344, McCain 194 – Bizarro Map (Without Rasmussen)

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Wed Jul-23-08 06:50 AM
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The Daily Widget – Wednesday, July 23 – Obama 344, McCain 194 – Bizarro Map (Without Rasmussen)

Contents:
1. Tidbits
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map, Links and Sources

* * * * * * *

1. TIDBITS – Bizarro Map (Without Rasmussen)

I’ve been wondering for a while now if Rasmussen had a server crash last month and restored their data from a 2004 backup. Ohio, red? Strong red, no less? They’ve gotta be yanking our chains. Seriously.

So today I yank back. What would an electoral map look like completely free of Rasmussen data? Would Obama’s strategy be the same without Rasmussen’s data?

Here is the Bizarro Map (no Rasmussen data) followed below by today’s map with Rasmussen data:

First, only four states are flipped: Ohio, Virginia, Montana and Nevada. And second, the Central-South (away from the east coast) is out of play. Rasmussen gives us the misperception that Texas and the entire South are in play.

The difference in electoral votes between the two maps is only 20 total; the map without Rasmussen data would show Obama leading by 20 more electoral votes. Not a big deal, considering the big picture.

What is a big deal, however, is the difference in pink states. Rasmussen shows many red states as pink, or close races, while the Bizarro map shows a solid, strong set of red states. I’m more inclined to believe the Bizarro map than the normal map showing Rasmussen data.

Obama could save valuable time and resources by concentrating primarily in these areas:

Midwest: Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio
Southeast: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
Northeast: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Maine
West: Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Montana

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2. WIDGETS

^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.

^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

* * * * * * *

3. NEW STATE POLLS

Is it a lolpoll? Rasmussen tells us that Ohio, instead of being Weak Blue, is actually Strong Red. After averaging it with yesterday’s Public Policy Polling release showing Obama leading by 8 in Ohio, the state becomes Lean Red (Obama 45, McCain 46). Florida also switches back from Lean Blue to Lean Red. Colorado and New Hampshire remain in the Lean Blue category.

Colorado

Obama 50, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 7/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida

Obama 45, McCain 47 (American Research Group, 7/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
New Hampshire

Obama 47, McCain 45 (American Research Group, 7/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio

Obama 42, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 7/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

* * * * * * *

4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES

^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

* * * * * * *

5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

* * * * * * *

6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING

^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

* * * * * * *

7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP, LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

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