Electoral College Impact - Which VP Candidate will have the most impact?

[grantcart]

With Phrigndumass' new chart showing the spread of strength of the two candidates it is easy to see where the Vice Presidential Candidate will have to have an impact. The VP nominee will have to help move states in "Lean Obama" to the left. There are 4 states that are close together that together have 65 electoral college votes OH, IN, PA, VA.

Strictly considering the impact of the VP Candidate on those 4 states, which candidate is the most likely to ad 5-6 points to them?

[SteelPenguin]

1. I voted Bayh

Not that I'd like him to be the VP Candidate, but I think if that's purely what we're looking at...Bayh would be the only one of those to almost guarantee Indiana goes blue. He's tremendously popular there. Plus his conservative democratic credentials would, and do, play well in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Probably Virginia too, but I'm not as familiar with that area personally. As someone living in Western PA though I think Bayh would swing the most people.

[Muttocracy]

2. how about Schweitzer (Gov MT)

[tokenlib]

4. I agree--Schweitzer would have an interesting effect....

He probably wouldn't bring in Montana--but he would make the entire West more competative--and reach out to rural areas elsewhere.

[Muttocracy]

5. no idea how he would play in the midwest when they got to know him

but I would think he would have blue-collar and independent appeal.

[tokenlib]

6. His being a real rancher and gun toter would bring dividends---

Schweitzer would be a bold choice--going after underlying cultural issues that have plagued democrats---

[Muttocracy]

7. Might make a nice contrast with Mitt or whoever is the GOP VP. nt

[Skwmom]

17. Mitt Romney would look like a plastic phony. I hope the Obama team realizes that

people want real change, and a typical politician isn't what they are looking for.

[mikekohr]

40. Schweitzer showed the Democratic Party how to win in rural, conservative states

No nonsense, plain talking, no bulshit tolerance, common sense attitude. I am a big fan of Brian Schweitzer and I believe he would bring much to the winning candadicy of Barack Obama.

mike kohr

[grantcart]

8. My opinion is that Obama is over performing in the mountain states

and it doesn't make any sense to take somebody from that area.

He is 'underperfoming' (in relation to his strong performance elsewhere) in Ohio/PA/IN. If you add in VA you have a block of 4 that the Republicans must win atleast 2 to win or even stay in the game. We have a chance in all 4 so I think that the VP will be somebody from this area or somebody that is going to be very attractive to this area.

[tokenlib]

10. Schweitzer is more a "cultural" pick than geographic

He provides a colorful contrast with Obama. Where Obama comes across on a superficial level as an "intellectual"--Schweitzer comes across as a gun toting rancher who gets his hands dirty (maybe a bit of a pun as he's also a soil scientist). Even his dog is the type that would follow you hunting. Schweitzer is known for down to earth comments on issues.

Biden, Kaine, Clinton, Sebelius--name them all--they come across first as political figures. Schweitzer comes across as more than a governor. Schweitzer out in a "field" doesn't look like a photo-op. If we want change--then let's have a real change ticket. Let's take a stab at some of the "cultural" image issues.

In the end though, I think Obama will go more traditional. So you'll end up with Kaine, Biden, or someone "well known" on the political stage. I hope I'm wrong though...

[Skwmom]

15. Obama going traditional will help McCain and the corporate media sell their message that Obama is

nothing more than a phony politician.

Can you imagine, after all of the effort trying to define Obama as a typical, no change politician, and Obama picks Schweitzer. It would be priceless. Plus, it would attract the independents in droves.

[Blondiegrrl]

29. Good rationale. Schweitzer would also help where the

"Don't take my guns away" Dems are concerned.

[Blondiegrrl]

27. I would LOVE Schweitzer. I'm not sure what the rest of America would think, however. n/t

[Skwmom]

14. Schweitzer screams authenticity. He would get huge support in OH, PA, WV and VA.

I've lived in three of those states. A typical politician will hurt Obama, which is why I think many are pushing for a DC politician.

This country is going to go through some difficult times. I think Obama/Schweitzer could really rally this country and bring back common sense to D.C.

They have been trying to paint Obama as a typical, phony politician. This ticket would be so exciting that McCain/whoever would NEVER recover. Schweitzer would leave the corporate media gasping for air.

Obama/Schweitzer would excite people and give them hope. McCain/VP in comparison would look like your typical politicians.

[Radical Activist]

3. If Strictland can deliver Ohio then the election is over.

Checkmate.
A strong Midwestern ticket would probably ensure Iowa and Missouri as well.

[mikekohr]

41. I believe Strickland removed his name from consideration n/t

mike kohr

[PBS Poll-435]

9. Clinton

Clinton guarantees Arkansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

Clinton helps with rural Missouri and West Virginia.

Game, Set, Match.

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. Someone who helps make voters comfortable with Obama as Commander in Chief

I think this is an election where malaise about Republican control tilts almost the entire board toward Democrats, if the anxious vorer block gets over their fear factor about Obama. So it isn't a matter of picking a VP who can deliver a key state or two, it's about picking a VP who helps Obama keep so many states in play that McCain must hold onto to win, that McCain has to spread his resourses too thinly across the whole board to keep from bleeding electoral votes that are essential to him.

Pretty much all of the states that are not dark blue or red can theoretically be competitive. That's a lot of states, so I think it would be a mistake to pick a Kain, for example, if the reasoning behind that is to move Virginia solidly toward Obama if Kain didn't also help Obama somewhat in states like Alaska and South Dakota and Indiana.

In other words I think Obama needs to pick someone solid enough that voters who are a little nervous about Obama's poossible youthful inexerience will feel reassured about the national security competence of an Obama Administration. Such a pick could shift a dozen or more states 3 to 5 % toward Obama, making the game board almost impossible for McCain to defend, exhausting his resourses and making blue leaning states all safe for Obama as a result of McCain's inability to aggressively campaign in them.

So someone like Biden works I think. I thing General Clark would do that trick also. Bayh or Nunn might too (though they are as DLC as they come and that could disillusion some of Obama's activist base from enthusiastically backing the ticket). Possibly Dodd. Clinton maybe, plus she energizes the female vote which is a different consideration. Richardson could if he were a more effective campaigner than he seems to be based on his Presidential run.

[grantcart]

18. I agree

if you read the numbers behind the numbers in the polls there is a consensus that Obama is smarter and would be a better leader but there is a lingering degree of anxiety with 15% of the population that still is considering him.

There is no enthusiasm for McCain. Its a train that has literally left the station.

I was surprised that Schwitzer received so many hits and I understand the interest in him but seriously Obama doesn't need help in the mountain states where he is 'outperforming expectations'.

I think it will be Kaine.

Here is his Wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Kaine

Here is a summary of his pre political career days:

Kaine was born in St. Paul, Minnesota to Mary Kathleen Burns and Albert A. Kaine, an engineer and small business owner. Kaine grew up in the Kansas City area and graduated from Rockhurst High School there.

Kaine graduated from the University of Missouri–Columbia with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics in 1979.<1> He attended Harvard Law School, taking a year-long break during law school to work with the Jesuit order as a Catholic missionary in Honduras.<2> He graduated from Harvard Law School in 1983, and was admitted to the Virginia Bar.

Kaine practiced law in Richmond for 17 years, specializing in representing people who had been denied housing opportunities because of their race or disability. He was recognized by local, state and national organizations for his fair housing advocacy. He also taught legal ethics for six years at the University of Richmond Law School.<3>

Over ten years into his legal career, in 1994, he was elected to the city council of the independent city of Richmond from the portion of the city in which he resided under Richmond's system of nine wards. He would later be elected mayor of Richmond by the city council (which until 2004 chose the mayor from among its membership). He spent a total of seven years on the city council, including his time as mayor. The City of Richmond had been long notorious for having one of the highest murder rates in the United States. The trend had worsened greatly in the 1980s, and had continued into the 1990s. As mayor, Kaine was credited with helping to create and implement the gun law known as Project Exile.



Kaine has some unique assets - catholic, lay missionary, Spanish speaker and Governor in a state turning red to blue.

He also has a three state background - born in Minnesota, raised in Missouri and lives in Virginia.

I also didn't realize that his early years he was a civil rights attorney (and also from Harvard).

On a personal basis Obama is very old fashioned about loyalty and the fact that he was first in will not be forgotten:

Kaine endorsed Senator Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries. Kaine's endorsement was claimed to be the first from a state-wide elected official outside of Illinois to endorse Obama's bid

[Tom Rinaldo]

21. Kain is an impressive person, and impressive is good

He would help swing Virginia into Obama's domain and that is a key Red to Blue shift. I think voters would see Kain as solid, but he is a first term Governor without real foreign policy credentials. That's my big problem with that pairing. Neither Kain nor Obama have been in national politics long and neither has deep national security creds. That's why I would lean away from Kain. Warner would have worked a little better. He at least completed a full term as Governor and he has a good resume in business also, helping Warner seem more well rounded and better complimenting Obama in my opinion for those reasons. But of course Warner said no.

I doubt Obama will pick Clark so I would lean toward Biden. He can be an attack dog if needed along with his having sufficient gravitas and national security credentials from his years chairing the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee

[grantcart]

34. I wonder how Biden polls in OH/IN/PA/VA

[Tom Rinaldo]

42. Me too. But my hypothesis is that someone like him will add a couple of points everywhere

Some other choices might be better at delivering a specific key State.

[Blondiegrrl]

26. No foreign policy experience?

I would rank foreign policy experience as No. 1 on the list of Very Important VP Credentials.

Out of the above list, I'd vote Joe Biden.

[nam78_two]

12. I am starting to lean Biden myself.nt

[Douglas Carpenter]

13. of those listed I believe Gov. Richardson would add the most

He would greatly add to the experience and foreign policy experience equation

Several years in the House, former Secretary of Energy, former Ambassador to the United Nations and a successful and currently serving Governor since 2002.

He would give an extra push of the Hispanic vote and would help poll some regional Western and Southwestern votes and perhaps some Catholic votes as well.

This from Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Richardson

Richardson spent a little more than 14 years in Congress. As a congressman, he kept his interest in foreign relations. He visited Nicaragua, Guatemala, Cuba, Peru, India, North Korea, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Sudan to represent U.S. interests.

Richardson served as Chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus in the 98th Congress (1983–1985) and as Chairman of the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Native American Affairs in the 103rd Congress (1993–1994). While in the House, Richardson sponsored bills such as the Indian Tribal Justice Act, the American Indian Religious Freedom Act Amendments, the American Indian Trust Fund Management Reform Act, the American Indian Agricultural Resource Management Act, the Indian Dams Safety Act, the Tribal Self-Governance Act, the Indian Tribal Jurisdiction Bill (commonly known as the “Duro Fix”) and the Jicarilla Apache Tribe Water Rights Settlement Act.

In 1996, he traveled to Baghdad with Peter Bourne and engaged in lengthy one-on-one negotiations with Saddam Hussein to secure the release of two American aerospace workers who had been captured by the Iraqis after wandering over the Kuwaiti border. He became a member of the Democratic leadership, where he worked closely with Bill Clinton on several issues.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations

In 1997, Clinton appointed Richardson as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. As ambassador, he represented the United States in UN proceedings regarding the Palestinian National Authority and the State of Israel<5>, the completion of negotiations that strengthened the role and mandate of the United Nations Environment Programme regarding ecologically sustainable development<6>, as well as other duties of an ambassador to the UN. Richardson served there until 1998, when he was appointed U.S. Secretary of Energy, a post that he held for the remainder of the Clinton administration. According to his autobiography, Richardson was asked by the White House in 1997 to interview Monica Lewinsky for a job on his staff at the UN. Richardson did so, and offered her a position, which she declined.<7>


U.S. Secretary of Energy

Richardson as Secretary of EnergyThe Senate confirmed Richardson to be Clinton's Secretary of Energy on July 31, 1998. His tenure at the Department of Energy was marred by the Wen Ho Lee nuclear espionage scandal. Richardson was also criticized by the Senate for his handling of the espionage inquiry by not testifying in front of Congress sooner. Richardson justified his response by saying that he was waiting to uncover more information before speaking to Congress.<8>

Richardson created the Director for Native American Affairs position in the Department in 1998, and in January 2000 oversaw the largest return of federal lands, 84,000 acres (340 km²) to an Indian Tribe (the Northern Ute Tribe of Utah) in more than 100 years.<9> Richardson also directed the overhaul of the Department's consultation policy with Native American tribes and established the Tribal Energy Program.

[Alexander]

36. Richardson would hurt with LGBT support

He said being gay is a choice and used the word "maricon" on Imus which means "f*ggot" in English.

[newmajority]

37. **sigh* ..... I thought we cleared that one up

Richardson's alleged rhetoric was blown way out of proportion. Mostly by the same bunch who were calling him "Judas" not so long ago.

Meanwhile, his actual record on LGBT issues as governor of New Mexico tells an entirely different story.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GF-WJ3cWIQY

[Labors of Hercules]

49. Voting for McCain or not voting...

Would be obviously contrary to lgbt interests, so how would it "hurt" our support regardless of who Obama picks as his VP?

We're not stupid you know.

[Clark2008]

16. What the hell would Edwards win?

He proved in 2004 that he can't bring in North Carolina.

Geesch.

[MichDem10]

24. OHIO

Edwards would help to solidify the LABOR vote in Ohio plus increase the rural vote. OHIO = Obama POTUS! :KICK:

[phrigndumass]

19. In no particular order: Bayh, Clinton or Kaine

Bayh could bring IN, OH
Clinton could bring OH, PA
Kaine could bring VA, possibly help WV, NC

On Edit: These choices are for strategy purposes only!

[musicblind]

20. That was a really close call for me between Hillary and Edwards there

I finally decided on Hillary because I think she has wider appeal beyond just the south. But either of those two would help him a lot (imo)

[depakid]

22. I think the data is bogus- but regardless, Wes Clark brings more to the ticket by far

in key electoral states than any other prospective nominee.

[grantcart]

25. the data or the premise?

[depakid]

30. The polling data

I have no idea what organization would assert Obama has only a 3 point lead in Oregon- but that's just laughable.

Even Gordon Smith has been running ads touting his connections to Obama here!

Others are way off the mark, too but oh well- par for the course.

[grantcart]

31. that was an outlier from Survey USA tomorrow a new poll shows Obama + 9 (RAS) and that is still low

[TheDonkey]

23. I think Kaine, maybe Bayh.

[ruggerson]

28. Where's Schweitzer?

[tokenlib]

33. I just hope Barack asks that question..real soon...n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

32. The MAIN man. Richardson !!!! Get on board !!

[tritsofme]

35. No VP candidate has flipped a state since at least LBJ in 1960

Its a flawed strategy.

[Awsi Dooger]

38. It's strategy that hasn't been properly applied

Gore would have won without chad question in 2000, with Bob Graham on the ticket. Kerry in 2004 lacked a viable option from Ohio. We needed a John Glenn-type, minus 20 years.

Kaine makes by far the most sense, among the remaining logical options. Annexing Virginia and its 13 electoral votes flops the margin for error. We could lose Florida and Ohio and still reach 270 by splitting the second tier swing states. Otherwise, you need an extremely unlikely sweep.

I'll continue to insist a VP is only important in his home state. I have no idea where this nonsense sprouts, that a VP can impact entire regions, or similar types of states. Pure folly. It's true Hillary's case is somewhat different in retrieving her block of supporters. But overall I discount that. You're far better off identifying a VP who can swing a significant state, as LBJ did with Texas in '60. And it's a handful of points in that state, not 5 or 6, particularly in a major state. The smaller population of the state, the more the favorite son impact seems to be.

That list of poll margins is not accurate, in many cases. Someone else already pointed that out. For one thing, the insistence that Indiana is in our camp is wild. Sorry, that is a heavily red state on the presidential level, completely different than the surrounding states. Everything in the state's makeup hints it will remain red in '08, with a lack of high population cities other than Indianapolis. Obama can carry Indiana in a national landslide. Otherwise, adding Bayh wouldn't even enable it.

Oh yeah, we got the Edwards-couldn't-win-North-Carolina-for-Kerry dribble. Frankly, anyone who posts that earns the Jack-O-Lantern award for the day, like the Billy Mumy Twilight Zone episode.

Yeah, a state that's 13 points red compared to the nation itself, and an incumbent Republican with a small national lead, and a Democratic VP is supposed to magically overturn that. Whatever we want. :rofl:

[grantcart]

43. many good points however

I believe that Kaine could have a broader impact because a) he actually is a two state guy - raised in MO and lives in VA

but more importantly

b) he is a strong Catholic.


I think that there is a very strong catholic bond with the older generation in those old ethnic neighborhoods in PA/OH/IN

as well as NY/NJ etc where it really isn't needed. Let's say for example that someone else was the nominee how much extra participation would Obama bring in Black communities if he was the Vice.

Also as a fluent Spanish speaker (he was a lay missionary in South America) he would help to energize Hispanic participation that would also identify strongly with his Catholicism.


I believe that it will be Kaine.

[salonghorn70]

50. Other Catholics

Good point about a Catholic nominee. Remember, a couple of weeks ago when it was being reported that Obama's vetting team considered it important to have a Catholic on the ticket? Aren't Bayh and Biden Catholics also?

[Radical Activist]

44. Edwards could have brought in NC if

they had sent him there and made a real effort. The Kerry campaign is to blame for that, not Edwards.
Plus, a VP candidate can only do so much when you have someone at the top of the ticket that had so little appeal in the South.

[grantcart]

45. I know that Edwards campaign said that but his poll numbers in NC

this time were never very good.


Its hard for me to believe that Kerry wouldn't send Edwards there without having some type of polling data.


I like Edwards and don't understand why he isn't more popular but he doesn't seem to have that great a base in North Carolina.

[Radical Activist]

46. Today and back then are not the same.

He has been out of office a long time. Its not surprising that his numbers went down in the past four years of being out of the public eye, but that doesn't mean he couldn't have won the state with some effort in '04.

[Radical Activist]

48. Also, I'm sure they had polling numbers for MO

which ended up being very close, even after they completely abandoned the state. That was idiotic. It was a very poorly run campaign and I hope Obama is careful about how much he listens to the former Kerry staff currently on his campaign.

[benEzra]

47. That, and the fact that Kerry/Edwards unwittingly promised to ban some of the most popular guns here

and talked it up like it would actually help them in this state.

Our Dem governor here in NC (who is pro-choice on guns) won in 2004 55%/45%, even as Kerry/Edwards lost the state 45%/55%, among the same voters. Nationally known Erskine Bowles also ran hard on a pro-ban position for NC's open Senate seat, and lost to a no-name repub.

Was that the only issue in play? Of course not. But it was a big issue.

Richardson or Schweitzer would help Obama in NC far more than Edwards would, IMO.

[davidpdx]

39. I think Richardson or Biden

thought I'd be happy with any of the others besides Clinton.