The Daily Widget – Wednesday, July 16 – Obama 356, McCain 182 – The Republican Enthusiasm Void

[phrigndumass]

Republicans have usually been able to rely on a very strong base from a dozen or so states. It hasn’t been uncommon in our generation to see election results for certain states showing that the Republican presidential candidate had won there by 20 points, 30 points, sometimes greater than 40 points.

Take Bush Jr., for instance (please, lol). In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 20 points or greater in 11 states. And in 2004, he won over Kerry by 20 points or greater in 15 states. Surely McCain can muster enough enthusiasm from the electorate to win at least a few states by 20 points or more.

Or can he?

The chart below shows how all the states are currently polling, and by how much each candidate leads in those states. How many states show McCain leading Obama by +20 or greater?



Answer: None! Nada. Zippo. Nil. Utah comes closest with a 19 point lead for McCain, but Bush Jr. won Utah in 2000 by 41 points and in 2004 by 45 points. On the flipside, Obama is leading McCain by 20 points or greater in eight states.

The national polls show significant advantages in Obama’s favorability ratings over McCain’s. Things may change between now and Election Day, but for the moment, Republicans as a whole aren’t satisfied with their candidate. And all the polls show it.

2004 States where Bush beat Kerry by 20 points or more: Alabama (+26), Alaska (+27), Idaho (+38), Indiana (+21), Kansas (+26), Kentucky (+20), Mississippi (+20), Montana (+21), Nebraska (+34), North Dakota (+27), Oklahoma (+31), South Dakota (+21), Texas (+23), Utah (+45), Wyoming (+40)

2000 States where Bush beat Gore by 20 points or more: Alaska (+31), Idaho (+40), Montana (+25), Wyoming (+41), Utah (+41), North Dakota (+28), South Dakota (+23), Nebraska (+29), Kansas (+21), Oklahoma (+22), Texas (+21)


* * * * * * *


NEW STATE POLLS

The Carolinas both move outside of the margin of error and into the Weak McCain category, causing my electoral vote projection for Obama to drop to 356 today.


North Carolina – Obama 45, McCain 50 (Survey USA, 7/14, +/- 3.8, 676 LV)
South Carolina – Obama 39, McCain 45, BARR 5 (Public Policy Polling, 7/11, +/- 4.2, 542 LV)
Washington – Obama 47, McCain 37 (Moore Information, 7/10, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)


* * * * * * *


WIDGETS



^ This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


DAILY TRACKING



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ Wigand vs. National Polls. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average).



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. It is currently at 671.70 (the highest it has ever been). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure (671.70) by 1200. Obama is winning the swing states by 55.98%, compared to 44.02% for McCain.



^ Wigand vs. Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *





Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[Hope And Change]

1. K & R!

[phrigndumass]

2. Good morning HnC

:donut: Thanks! :hi:

[tekisui]

3. Obama has a strong base to start.

McLame, to have a chance at winning, has to have MAJOR movement upwards in Obama's states. I just don't see that happening. He hits a hard ceiling, with no way to go up.

KNR!

[phrigndumass]

5. Agreed 100%

At the same time, we need to protect Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

4. Good morning, phrigndumass!

Love that chart on top that even a five year old can understand (and is pouring over line by line). ;-) Thank you, you got his day off to a good start!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. I had Lil Math Dude in mind when I made that chart :)

:donut: Good morning, f4m3s and LMD :hi: :hi:

(The coffee is for you, but you each get a wave, lol)

[fight4my3sons]

8. he's laughing

at the waving and says the news is stupid. I had to explain who owns the news and where it comes from. Thank you for making him feel better. You're the best. :pals:

[phrigndumass]

10. The news is stupid :)

:rofl: He's right!

[jefferson_dem]

7. Mornin' phrigndumass!

Love the chart! Seeing Barack ahead in MT, IN, AR is freaking me out. :woohoo:

[phrigndumass]

9. It's almost as if Obama took the 2004 map and pushed it all 20 points to the left

Montana and Indiana were both +20 territory for republicans. Amazing!

:donut: Good morning, jd! :hi:

[grantcart]

14. exactly - how would you like to be McCain's numbers guy and have to explain

that his really safe territory is Lousiana and Utah and Obama's is, well, a lot of places.

[phrigndumass]

15. McCain would probably start rubbing his face and glance to the left like he's pissed

and scare the poor numbers guy half to death :rofl:

"Okay okay, you're winning Sir! Don't hurt me!"

[phrigndumass]

11. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day :D

[DavidDvorkin]

12. Continues to be very encouraging

Thanks for continuing to do this.

Suggestion: Would it be feasible to put the percentage on the right-hand side (y-axis) of the popular vote projection?

[phrigndumass]

16. Excellent suggestion!

I would have never thought of that, lol ... Doing so would provide an apples-to-apples comparison with the national polls.

I'll use text for today:
Obama - 47% ... (+4)
McCain - 43%
Barr - 2.1%
Nader - 1.2%
Undecided - 6.7%

Thanks DavidD! :hi:

[grantcart]

13. the "Strength of Support Chart" is very helpful.

If it keeps up you may have to add another column for Obama on the left side.

[phrigndumass]

17. That's some tasty tidbits, huh?

I'll save it in the spreadsheet and update it occasionally, then.

What would we call the new column on the left side? Lolbama? Hands Off? Neener-Neener? Youcanhavealltheredstatesyouwantbutyoucanthavethese?

:D

[grantcart]

18. Now Rueters/Zogby are showing Obama

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1535315320080716?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

More than a month after kicking off the general election campaign, Obama leads McCain by 47 percent to 40 percent. That is slightly better than his 5-point cushion in mid-June, shortly after he clinched the Democratic nomination fight against New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.



Four polls in the last two days all showing McCain at 40%.


and here is an article by Blumenthal on methodology - questions are being asked


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25515157/

[phrigndumass]

19. ^ ^ ^ Good info on the different methodologies used

It still leaves me with some questions, but it's definitely a good start!



Notice how Rasmussen's pendulum swings more often than Gallup's. Gallup's daily tracker line is more of a trend in itself, while we need an actual trend line to determine Rasmussen's trend.

Gallup = Live interviews, bilingual, no party ID weighting, and uses cell phones

Rasmussen = Automated, party ID weighting, no cell phones

[phrigndumass]

20. Reuters/Zogby with Barr & Nader shows Obama leading by 10

Obama - 46% ... (+10)
McCain - 36%
Barr - 3%
Nader - 3%

From the same link, but further down in the article.

:woohoo:

[grantcart]

21. I tried to publicize your new graph with this poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6506796

[phrigndumass]

22. That's a good way to ask that poll question

Helps to have the data in front of you. Going strictly on strategy, I chose Kaine, but for strategy it could have also been Clinton or Bayh.

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

23. yeah it got an untypical response too

[Major Hogwash]

24. Representative Sali (R - ID) has had his seat moved from "safe" to "contested"

by the GOP, according to 2 articles in the WSJ this last month.

Yet, that doesn't mean that he is able to raise any money to keep his seat in the House.

This is a real sign that they are in trouble.
And I mean trouble.
And that starts with "t" and that rhymes with "b"
And that means bubble!
Their bubble burst and now he's their worst
They don't have a prayer to keep him a playa
Minnick is coming up from behind
And Sali's ass is on the line

[phrigndumass]

25. Great news! Maybe Idaho is next for Obama?

I'd settle for pink, lol

:thumbsup:

[grantcart]

26. There are no Democrats in Idaho

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5fwJEWLUv8&feature=related

[phrigndumass]

29. That' video is from the Idaho caucus ... was that a stadium?

Wow.

[Major Hogwash]

32. Well, a basketball arena anyway. But, there is a Republican enthusiasm void for sure.

You can smell their fear.

Almost all of the people have taken their bumper stickers that supported Bush in 2004 off of their cars.
You can't even find one on a car here anymore.

Back in 2001, Bush bumper stickers were on 2 out of every 4 cars waiting at the traffic light.
And in 2004, it seemed there were just as many.
But, now, there aren't any Bush stickers on any cars and I look pretty hard to see if I can see any.

What's worse (for them) is there aren't any McCain bumper stickers.
None!
I haven't seen a single one.
I don't even know what they look like.

But, there are quite a few Obama stickers and magnets on cars rolling through town.
And Obama yard signs are everywhere - in almost every neighborhood.
I can't believe it, all these white people supporting Obama.
And Idaho is 98% white!

There weren't even this many Kerry yard signs out back in 2004.
It was as if people were afraid to have one in their yard back then.
But, this year, it's like they are saying "bring it on", which was Kerry's old slogan.
It's like they really mean it this time.

People are fed up here with all of the rah-rahing for the Iraq War.
They don't want to hear it any more.
The economy started tanking here 4 years ago, and it has continued to go down the pipes ever since.
Last year when gas prices hit $3.20 a gallon, I would tell all of the people that I knew that were so sure of themselves when they said they were for Bush back in 2004, "well, I didn't vote for him."
That's all I would say because I didn't want to rub it in too hard.
But this year, after gas prices hit $4.00 a gallon, nobody is bragging that they voted for Bush now.

The one thing that got their attention was the high gas prices.
They weren't concerned about the illegal and immoral Iraq War, or how Bush went after our civil liberties to take them away, or even about Valerie Plame's cover as a CIA officer being blown, but make them pay more for gas - and now they're pissed off, too.
It finally got their attention.

[Alexander]

27. Sali almost got taken out last time. He's an idiot and not even his own party likes him.

[Major Hogwash]

33. There were 6 GOP candidates during their primary in 2006 for that seat in Congress.

The top 3 were far more qualified than Sali.
But, the top 3 candidates split the vote so bad amongst themselves that Sali was able to win a narrow majority.
Nobody could believe it, most of all, the Republicans!!

Sali is an extremist - he believes that abortion leads to breast cancer.
No one supports his belief because there is no scientific evidence to back it up, but the anti-abortion attitude is prevalant here, so he was able to count on those people to vote for him that fall.

However, the anti-gay attitude here is just as prevalent.
Idaho is the state that time forgot - we're stuck in the year of 1954!
People here don't want gay marriages, or civil unions.
They don't even want to talk about men living with each other, it drives them crazy even thinking about it.
And they think about it a lot here.


So, we might even wind up getting a Democrat in the U.S. Senate next year because of Senator Larry Craig's daliances in airport rest rooms, as a result.
Not even the Republican governor wants to be seen with Craig, and Risch (the GOP candidate for his Senate seat) doesn't want Craig's endorsement!

Oooh, the irony of it all.
The best part of irony is the ironic part.

LoL

[RNdaSilva]

28. Checked in...

I assume that Utah and Louisiana are beyond hope.

[phrigndumass]

30. And now Kansas too, lol

It figures after I posted this today, Rasmussen releases a poll showing McCain leading in Kansas by 23 points, thus destroying my point. :D

:hi:

[jazzjunkysue]

31. Obama breaks 20+ lead in 8 states. McGramps only gets one: Texas.

What is in the water down there?????