Why taking back the Senate will be difficult (in general)

[lapfog_1]

Our founding fathers set things up so that each State, being
sort of like a small nation, would be equally represented in
the Senate, no matter the size or population. I doubt they
ever imagined a situation where one state would have a population
of 35.5 Million Americans (CA) and another would have a population
of only .5 Million (Wyoming). Given that we have divided politically
to "heartland" (or "Flyover") and Coast, and many of the states
in the heartland (and inter-mountain West) are sparsely populated
(with the notable exception of Texas), for various reasons which
could be speculated on... this disparity in representation will
only grow.

There are 52 Republican Senators representing about 130 Million
Americans, and 48 (47+1 independent) representing 160 Million.

That's about 2.5 Million per republican senator, and 3.3 Million
per Democratic Senator.

So, unless a whole lot of left leaning folks (voting Democratic) move
to the flyover states... this just won't get corrected. The House
is only slightly better because EVERY State is guaranteed 3 reps (for
150), after that, things become allocated by population.

BTW, for States that have 1 Dem and 1 Repub, I allocated 1/2 of
the population to each.

Also, with the increasing polarity of the electorate, I expect the
split representation states in the Senate to slowly disappear
over time (as Dem Senators in Red states retire, they will likely
be replaced by Repugs, and vice versa).

Without doing something drastic (either Dems move to Red States
OR taking some large states and splitting them - like CA into
3 states), this isn't going to change. Which means that it will
be difficult for any liberal President to enact a progressive
agenda.

Ohh, one other drastic change... convert the Repugs to "see the
light" - at least enough to tip the scales.

[quaoar]

1. Sounds logical

But elections often defy such analysis.

In 1980, Republicans picked up 11 seats to take control of the Senate. They picked up 33 House seats.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. We'll pick up a senate seat in IL

and AR will re-elect Blanche Lincoln, who is a Dem. (Note: not all the "flyover" states are Repuke; both AR Senators are Democrats).