The Daily Widget – Monday, June 23 – Obama 331-207

[phrigndumass]

We’ve added a brand new graph today: Projected Popular Vote, Daily Tracking. This has been tracked in the full weekly edition, but I thought it would be interesting to track the popular vote projection every day as well, since we are already tracking the electoral vote projection daily. Obama is currently leading by 4.85 million votes (projected 59.20 million for Obama, to projected 54.35 million for McCain).

Also new is the addition of Gallup Daily Tracking and Rasmussen Daily Tracking to the Wigand Electoral Average (WEA) Index graph. These national polls are usually released about a day or two after each poll is conducted, so there should be a lag time for each (usually one day behind for Rasmussen and two days behind for Gallup). The Real Clear Politics poll average is also tracked on this graph.

Our WEA Index draws data from both polls and trading (see notes at the bottom of this post). The second graph below compares the WEA Index to the national polls for Obama. The fourth graph below compares the WEA Index to the daily closing figures in trading for Obama, both Intrade and Rasmussen Markets.

Only a handful of polls were released over the weekend:
Iowa – Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 6/16, +/- 4.4)
Nevada – Obama 42, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 6/18, +/- 4.5)
California – Obama 53, McCain 41 (Survey USA, 6/19, +/- 4.5)
New Hampshire – Obama 50, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 6/18, +/- 4.5)
Washington – Obama 55, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 6/19, +/- 4.3)
Utah – Obama 29, McCain 57 (Dan Jones & Associates, 6/19, +/- 5.0)
Oregon – Obama 48, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 6/19, +/- 4.3)








Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH


* * * * * * *


DAILY TRACKING



^ Electoral-Vote.com has taken Florida out of Obama's column and made it a tie. Two polls showed Obama leading in Florida, while one poll showed him trailing. Averaging all three polls together gives us Obama +1 in Florida. I guess +1 averaged is close enough to call Florida a tie on EV.com, but there are three other states shown on EV.com where one candidate leads the other by one point.



RCP's Average jumps one today, above 48 for the first time for Obama, while Gallup holds steady and Rasmussen drops one.



^ The WEA Total Index keeps reaching new highs. Missouri is now trading BLUE for Obama (Missouri is already polling blue) and jumped 10.00 to 55.00 over the weekend. North Carolina is now trading in the 30's for Obama. Iowa remains the bluest in trading at 81.50.



Trading for Obama on Intrade and Rasmussen Markets reached new high-points over the weekend.



Obama has held the projected popular vote lead since May 28. At one point last week, he led by 5.4 million votes. Today Obama leads McCain by 4.85 million votes. I am projecting a total of 126.73 million votes on election day, so a majority would be 63.37 million votes. Obama is just over four million projected votes away from the majority.


* * * * * * *






^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction.
It is a map of the states which are currently
either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.


R.I.P. George Carlin :cry:


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[tekisui]

1. KNR!

Good morning, and thank you phrign.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. Good morning tek!

Thanks! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good morning, phrigndumass!

Thank you & have a good day! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

5. Happy Monday :)

:donut: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

4. dupe

[phrigndumass]

8. :) ... Off to work kick

Enjoy your day!

[fight4my3sons]

9. :) ...Off to the library kick for you

I was having computer issues this morning. sorry for that dupe.

[phrigndumass]

10. Hope you found a good book kick :)

:7

[maddezmom]

6. giving you a kick

for the Greatest Page :hi:

[phrigndumass]

7. Good morning :)

I figured out my glitch. (Don't laugh, lol) I previously had GD Primaries hidden when I joined DU late last year (to avoid it), and never switched it back until this morning. Apologies for assuming the GDP threads didn't make it to the Greatest Page, and many thanks for your rec, maddezmom!

:donut: :hi:

[grantcart]

11. Only 19 more weeks to go. It still way to close especially on the popular vote

How is it that you project such a large popular vote gap when the national polls like Gallup and Rasmussed continue to show a very narrow difference (although Newsweek is showing a blow out).

[phrigndumass]

12. It's 46.6% for Obama, 42.8% for McCain (popular vote)

Latest polls, multiplied by projected turnout. I used 2004 turnout plus population growth over the last four years.

One percent of popular vote is roughly equivalent to 1.25 million votes. :7

[phrigndumass]

13. Evening kick

:kick: