Forget the Polls - Historians See Overwhelming Obama Victory in 2008 !

[K Gardner]

Historians See Little Chance for McCain



One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chance, if any.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.

<snip>

[FrenchieCat]

1. I will be glad when this is confirmed this in November!

[K Gardner]

11. You and me both ! No time to be lazy.. we still have work to do !

[goclark]

14. We have got to win this one!

So we'll have to give it all the energy we have and more.

GOTV

[papau]

2. LOL - Carter almost won - another week and he would have - these folks said Gore and Kerry were in!

[K Gardner]

8. Haven't gotten over it yet, have you?

[democrattotheend]

15. Wrong. Lichtman predicted 2004 for Bush.

And he predicted 2000 for Gore, which was correct, since his model deals with the popular vote. He's a professor at my alma mater and my ex-boyfriend took his class. He definitely predicted 2004 for Bush.

[w4rma]

18. Jeeze papau, have you gone bonkers over Hillary's loss? (nt)

[Cali_Democrat]

20. FYI

Gore won

[chknltl]

3. I been sayin it for months....

...about time the historians caught up.

[Bullet1987]

4. 2008 will be remembered as a historic election for a wide number of reasons

[Colobo]

5. Obama 54%, McCain 46%.

[LordJFT]

6. Dead heat? I haven't seen any polls that show a dead heat

[lurky]

13. But stating the facts would undermine the story...

If it's not a "dead heat", then how the fuck are they going to get people to read/watch their newsertainment product?

[LordJFT]

17. Oh that's right, I forgot that we can't use reality because it has a well known liberal bias

[Cleita]

7. Repukes want McCain to lose.

This way the Democratic President will get all the blame for the Bush administration's mistakes and they can come out in 2012 with putting the grown-ups in charge again meme, etc., etc.. I think Obama won't let that happen this time. The Republican Party will fade into history becoming as quaint as the Whig Party.

[anonymous171]

9. I don't think it will fade. I think it will become way more libertarian.

[K Gardner]

10. LOL.. good analogy ! The Whigs.. *snicker*

[phrigndumass]

12. Good read, K :)

But I like polls. I can haz pollz?

:7

[K Gardner]

19. Aw, phrign.. ya can haz ALL teh pollz ! I like wat u do with ur pollz !

[Prophet 451]

16. Presumes a couple of things

First off, it presumes the Repukes want to win. I'm honestly not sure they do. I think the idea might be to let Obama win without much of a fight (he's win anyway but regardless...) and let him and the Dems carry the can for the Bush caused meltdown of the country.

Secondly, it presumes teh votes are honestly counted and that's the one that has me really worried.