6/14 Election Model: Obama 51.9%; 319 EV; 99.6% Prob

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: June 13
     http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

If the election were held today, Obama would win the electoral vote by 319 – 219.
The State model projects that he would win 51.9% of the 2-party vote.
The National model projects indicates that he would win 53.3%.

Obama leads the latest state poll weighted average by 45.1 – 43.5%.
He leads the latest national 5-poll average by 45.6 – 41.6%.

The electoral vote is the average of a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation.
Obama won 99.6% of the trials; that’s the probability he would win.

The model executes five scenarios of undecided voter allocation.
In the most likely base case, 60% of undecided voters were allocated to Obama.
In the worst case, 50% were allocated: Obama had 50.8%, 293 EV and a 89% probability.

The latest polls indicate that these states will flip to Obama: CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA, NC

But there’s a catch:

It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.

• Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted (70–80%).
  
• There will very likely be vote-switching at the DREs and central tabulators.
  
• The Democrats need a very heavy voter turnout to overcome the fraud.

Obama will probably need at least 54% of the True Vote (2-party) to win.

Now for the good news:

Obama should get the 54% — at a minimum.

• It’s only June and he is leading despite all the media-driven negatives from the primary.
• Bush is at 25% in the polls — and McCain supports his policies.
  
• His poll numbers vs. McCain can only go up as the focus turns to the election.

These graphs display the latest polls and projection trends:

•   Aggregate state poll trend
  
•   National 5-poll moving average projection
  
•   Latest battleground state polls
  
•   Electoral vote and win probability
  
•   Electoral vote and projected vote share trend
  
•   Undecided voter allocation impact on win probability
  
•   Battleground state win probabilities

Polling Data Sources
State Poll data:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

National Poll data:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Aggregate State and National Polls and Projections 
Undecided allocation effect on projected vote share, EV and win probability

 
 
6/13/2008
Aggregate
State
Poll
Average
National
Poll
2-party
State
Projection
2-party
National
Projection
   Monte Carlo Simulation
   Expected         Win
        EV               Prob

Obama
45.1               45.6               51.9               53.3               319               99.6

McCain
43.5               41.6               48.1               46.7               219                0.4   



Undecided Voter Allocation %

 
 
BaseCase
Obama
50%               55%               60%               65%               70%

Trial Wins
4427              4876              4981              4996              5000


 

Projected 2-party %
Obama
50.8               51.4               51.9               52.5               53.1

McCain
49.2               48.6               48.1               47.5               46.9


 

Win Prob %
Obama
88.5               97.5               99.6               99.9             100.0

McCain
11.5                 2.5                 0.4                 0.1                 0.0


 

Electoral Vote
Average
293                307                319                330                341

Median
294                308                320                332                341

Maximum
359                370                375                390                414

Minimum
202                228                245                257                285


 

95% Conf. Interval
Upper Limit
331                342                351                360                371 

Lower Limit
256                272                287                301                312


 

States Won
 25                  26                  27                  27                  28

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

State Model

 
 
State Polls Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
Projection
Win
Trial
Flip to
 
Total

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
       
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
       
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
       
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
       
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
       
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
       
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
       
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
       
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
       
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
EV
 538 
       
9
3
10
6
55
       
9
7
3
3
27
       
15
4
4
21
11
       
7
6
8
9
4
       
10
12
17
10
6
       
11
3
5
5
4
       
15
5
31
15
3
       
20
7
7
21
4
       
8
3
11
34
5
       
3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 45.1 % 
       	
33
42
39
33
50

48
47
90
50
40

41
61
39
60
38

45
40
32
41
51

52
53
45
50
44

43
39
36
40
48

47
47
50
43
38

44
38
49
47
53

39
34
31
39
27

63
43
55
37
48
40
 
McCain
 43.5 % 
       
59
50
50
57
39

42
44
9
41
50

51
31
52
31
47

38
51
56
50
38

39
30
42
40
50

42
47
52
46
43

39
43
36
45
44

43
52
39
42
38

48
51
58
52
62

29
43
37
45
40
53
      
Diff
 2.7 %  
      
(26)
(8) 
(11)
(24)
11 
       	
6 
3 
81 
9 
(10)
       	
(10)
30 
(13)
29 
(9)
       	
7 
(11)
(24)
(9)
13 
       	
13 
23 
(3)
10 
(6)
       	
1 
(8)
(16)
(6)
5 
       	
8
4 
14
(2)
(6)
       	
1 
(14)
10 
5 
15 
       	 
(9)
(17)
(27)
(13)
(35)
       	
34 
0
18 
(8)
8
(13)
       
BO EV
 312 
       




55

9
7
3
3



4

21


7



4

10
12
17
10


11



4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

 
    
 	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
	
         
Obama
 51.9 % 
       
37.8
46.8
45.6
39.0
56.6

54.0
52.4
90.6
55.4
46.0

45.8
65.8
44.4
65.4
47.0

55.2
45.4
39.2
46.4
57.6

57.4
63.2
52.8
56.0
47.6

52.0
47.4
43.2
48.4
53.4

55.4
53.0
58.4
50.2
48.8

51.8
44.0
56.2
53.6
58.4

46.8
43.0
37.6
44.4
33.6

67.8
51.4
59.8
47.8
55.2
44.2
 
Probability
 99.6 % 
       
0.0
5.5
1.4
0.0
100.0

97.7
88.5
100.0
99.7
2.3

1.8
100.0
0.3
100.0
6.7

99.5
1.1
0.0
3.6
100.0

100.0
100.0
91.9
99.9
11.5

84.1
9.7
0.0
21.2
95.5

99.7
93.3
100.0
54.0
27.4

81.6
0.1
99.9
96.4
100.0

5.5
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0

100.0
75.8
100.0
13.6
99.5
0.2

       
EV
 332 





55

9
7
3
3



4

21


7



4

10
12
17
10


11



4

15
5
31
15


20

7
21
4







3
13
11

10

    
       
Obama
  7  
 






Obama











Obama











Obama






Obama

Obama


Obama












Obama




    

National Model

10-Poll
Last Poll
Sample
 
 
 
5-poll Moving Average
Projection Moving Average

Trend
                          
Gallup
Rasmussen
NBC/WSJ
Hotline/FD
IBD/TIPP
CNN
CBS
USA/GALLUP
COOK/RT
Pew 
Date
        
6/13
6/13
6/09
6/08
6/08
6/05
6/03
6/01
5/31
5/25
Size
              
2691 RV
3000 LV
1000 RV
806 RV
916 RV
921 RV
930 RV
803 RV
802 RV
1242 RV
Obama
        
45
49
47
44
43
49
48
47
44
47
McCain
        
42
43
41
42
40
46
42
44
43
44
Spread
        
3
6
6
2
3
3
6
3
1
3
Obama
        
45.6
46.4
46.2
46.2
46.2
47.0
46.4
46.4
46.6
47.4
McCain
        
41.6
42.4
42.2
42.8
43.0
43.8
43.8
43.4
42.0
42.6
Obama
        
53.3
53.1
53.2
52.8
52.7
52.5
52.3
52.5
53.4
53.4
McCain
        
46.7
46.9
46.8
47.2
47.3
47.5
47.7
47.5
46.6
46.6

 
 

 

Reviewing the 2004 Election Model

The final pre-election state polls matched the pre-election national polls.

Kerry led the aggregate final state pre-election polls by 47.7–47.0%.
He also led the national 18-poll average by 47.3 –46.9%.

The Election Model weighted average state projection closely matched the national.
Kerry won the state projection with 51.8% of the 2-party vote and 337 electoral votes.
He also won the national projection with 51.6% of the 2-party vote.

Exit Pollsters Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.

• It indicated that Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit polls by 51.8–47.2%.
  
• The 12:22am National Exit Poll update indicated that Kerry won by 50.8–48.2%.
  E-M stated that respondents were randomly selected and that the margin of error was 1.0%.

Professional pollsters allocate undecided voters in every election.

• The majority are allocated to the challenger, especially if the incumbent is unpopular.
  Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day.
  
• The Gallup Poll allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry. Harris and Zogby gave him 67-80%.
  The Election Model final base case projection allocated 75% of undecided voters to Kerry.

The Election Calculator Model
The Election Calculator indicates Obama will win the True Vote in a 71-59m landslide (54–45%).

The 2004 True Vote was the basis for calculating the 2008 model.
Kerry won the 2004 True Vote in a 67–57m landslide (53.2–45.4%).

2000 voter turnout in 2004 was total votes cast in 2000 less mortality times the turnout percentage.
In 2000, the Census reported 110.8m votes cast, but only 105.4m were recorded.
In 2004, the Census reported 125.7m votes cast, but only 122.3m were recorded.

The Calculator determines the True Vote based on estimated shares of returning voters.

• The 12:22am National Exit Poll “How Voted” category is a reasonable best case estimate.
  
• Kerry won 57% of new voters and others who did not vote in 2000.
  He won 91% of returning Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters.
  He captured 64% of returning Nader voters. Bush had 17%.

Pre-election and Exit Poll Confirmation
Final pre-election polls showed Kerry and Bush in a virtual tie.
The unweighted state average favored Bush, but Kerry led the aggregate weighted average.
The pre-election aggregate state polls closely matched the national pre-election poll average.

A few naysayers maintain that polling analysis cannot prove that the 2004 election was stolen.
They claim that the Final National Exit Poll was correct and the unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
The Final National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote using impossible weightings.
After undecided voters were allocated, the pre-election polls matched the unadjusted exits.

Simple MATH proves the Final NEP inflated the number of returning Bush voters by 6.6m.

• The Final indicates that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 2004 electorate (122.3m).
  But Bush only had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000.
  • Voter mortality tables show that approximately 2m Bush 2000 voters died prior to 2004.
    And about 2.5m Bush 2000 voters did not vote in 2004, assuming that 95% of 48.5m voted.
    Therefore, only 46.0m Bush 2000 voters could have returned to vote in 2004.
    But according to the Final NEP, 52.6m returned to vote – a mathematical impossibility.
    
  • Bush needed 16 million new voters to achieve his 62m recorded vote.
    According to the Election Calculator, he had 57m, an 11m increase.
    Where did Bush find 16 million new voters?
    
    Kerry won the final 5m recorded votes by 54.3–45.7%.
    These were late votes recorded a few days after the election.
    They consisted primarily of absentee and provisional ballots.
    
    Bush won the 2004 recorded vote by 62.0 - 59.0m (50.7- 48.3%) and had 286 EV.
    Of 3.4 million uncounted votes, approximately 2.6m were for Kerry - a net 1.8m margin.
    Bush’s 3.0m margin is thus reduced to 1.2m – and that’s before vote-switching.

To believe that Bush won, one must believe that the pre-election and unadjusted exit polls were wrong.
And also believe that the Final Exit Poll, although mathematically impossible, was correct.

THE 2004 ELECTION MODEL

Projection
EV
Vote%
Prob%

Kerry
337                51.80              99.90

Bush
201                48.20               0.10



Undecided Voter Allocation %

 
 
BaseCase
Kerry
60%               67%               75%               80%               87%

Trial Wins
4901              4972              4995              4997              4999


 

Projected 2-party %
Kerry
51.02             51.38             51.80             52.07             52.43

Bush
48.98             48.62             48.20             47.93             47.57


 

Win Prob %
Kerry
98.02             99.44             99.90             99.94             99.98

Bush
 1.98               0.56               0.10               0.06               0.02


 

Electoral Vote
Average
320                328                337                343                352

Median
322                329                338                345                353

Maximum
379                388                399                405                412

Minimum
211                237                223                243                254


 

95% Conf. Interval
Upper Limit
361                368                376                382                389

Lower Limit
278                288                298                305                315


 

National 18-Polls
Vote% 
50.73             51.15             74.77             51.92             52.34

Prob% 
97.55             99.90            100.00           100.00           100.00


 

States Won
 24                   25                   26                  26                  27

 
 
2004 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS
 
State Pre-Election polls, Projections, Exit polls and Recorded vote

 
 
 
 
Pre-Election Polls
(Pre Undecided Voter Alloc)
 
 
Projected
(After 75% UVA)
 
 
State Exit Poll
(Based on WPE)
 
 
Recorded Vote
( Official Vote Count )
 
 
SEP – Proj
 
 
SEP – Vote
 
 
Exit Poll
 
Projected
EV
 
SEP
EV
 
 
Proj – SEP
 
 
Proj – Vote
 
 
SEP – Vote
State
Wtd Avg
   
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
   
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
   
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
   
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
   
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
   
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
   
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
   
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
   
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
   
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
EV
  538  
    
9
3
10
6
55
   
9
7
3
3
27
   
15
4
4
21
11
   
7
6
8
9
4
   
10
12
17
10
6
   
11
3
5
5
4
   
15
5
31
15
3
   
20
7
7
21
4
   
8
3
11
34
5
   
3
13
11
5
10
3
Kerry
 47.7 % 
   
39
30
45
46
49
   
47
52
78
45
50
   
42
45
30
54
39
   
50
37
39
40
50
   
54
64
52
52
42
   
44
36
32
49
47
   
50
49
57
47
35
   
50
28
50
50
56
   
42
42
47
37
24
   
53
47
52
45
51
29
Bush
 47.0 % 
       
57
57
50
48
42
       
48
42
11
38
47
       
52
45
59
42
58
       
44
60
56
48
39
       
43
27
45
44
51
       
49
57
61
49
47
       
42
49
39
50
55
       
47
61
44
45
36
       
55
52
50
59
69
       
40
51
44
49
44
65
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 51.0 % 
     
41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0
     
50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5
     
45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5
     
53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5
     
55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5
     
48.5
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8
     
55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8
     
51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3
     
43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5
     
57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 51.8 % 
     
42.5
40.3
46.7
44.8
59.8
     
50.1
62.2
90.9
61.3
50.9
     
42.5
56.4
30.8
57.0
40.0
     
50.7
37.5
39.6
44.1
55.5
     
60.0
64.8
54.4
55.7
45.8
     
49.0
37.7
36.7
52.9
57.0
     
57.8
52.9
64.1
49.2
32.9
     
54.2
33.5
53.0
55.3
61.8
     
45.9
36.3
42.8
40.6
29.2
     
66.4
49.4
57.0
40.3
52.0
31.2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kerry
 48.3 % 
     
36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3
     
47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1
     
41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3
     
49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6
     
55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
40.2
     
46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2
     
52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5
     
48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4
     
40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0
     
58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
Bush
 50.7 % 
     
62.5
61.1
54.9
54.3
44.4
     
51.7
43.9
9.3
45.8
52.1
     
58.0
45.3
68.4
44.5
59.9
     
49.9
62.0
59.6
56.7
44.6
     
42.9
36.8
47.8
47.6
59.0
     
53.3
59.1
65.9
50.5
48.9
     
46.2
49.8
40.1
56.0
62.9
     
50.8
65.6
47.2
48.4
38.7
     
58.0
59.9
56.8
61.1
71.5
     
38.8
53.7
45.6
56.1
49.3
68.9
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Diff
  0.8 %  
      
1.2
1.3
(1.3)
(5.0)
4.8
      
0.1
6.4
5.4
4.3
(0.6)
      
(3.3)
4.6
(6.7)
0.8
(0.5)
      
(3.0)
(1.0)
(2.4)
(4.1)
(2.0)
      
4.5
(5.2)
0.9
1.5
(0.7)
      
0.5
(2.8)
0.2
3.2
6.3
      
2.5
3.2
4.8
0.7
(8.9)
      
2.7
(2.0)
(0.8)
2.3
0.5
      
2.4
(9.4)
(5.7)
1.4
0.7
      
8.9
1.7
2.8
(8.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
Diff
  3.6 %  
     
5.7
4.8
2.3
0.3
5.5
     
3.1
7.9
1.7
8.0
3.8
     
1.1
2.4
0.5
2.2
0.8
     
1.5
0.9
(0.0)
1.9
1.9
     
4.1
2.9
3.2
4.7
5.7
     
2.9
(0.9)
4.1
5.1
6.8
     
4.9
3.9
5.7
5.7
(2.6)
     
5.5
(1.0)
1.7
4.4
2.4
     
5.0
(2.1)
0.3
2.4
3.2
     
7.5
4.0
4.2
(2.9)
2.4
2.2 
WPE
  7.1 %  
      
11.3
9.6
4.6
0.5
10.9
      
6.1
15.7
3.4
15.9
7.6
      
2.2
4.7
1.0
4.4
1.5
      
3.0
1.7
(0.1)
3.8
3.8
      
8.1
5.8
6.3
9.3
11.3
      
5.8
(1.8)
8.1
10.1
13.6
      
9.7
7.8
11.4
11.3
(5.2)
      
10.9
(1.9)
1.8
8.8
4.7
      
10.0
(4.2)
0.5
4.8
6.4
      
15.0
7.9
8.4
(5.8)
4.7
4.3
Kerry
  331  
      
     
     
     
6
55
     
9
7
3
3
27
     
     
4
     
21
     
     
7
     
     
     
4
     
10
12
17
10
     
     
     
     
     
5
4
     
15
5
31
     
     
     
20
     
7
21
4
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
3
     
11
     
10
     
Kerry
  325  
    
    
    
    
    
55
    
9
7
3
3
27
    
    
4
    
21
    
    
7
    
    
    
4
    
10
12
17
10
    
    
    
    
    
5
4
    
15
5
31
    
    
    
20
    
7
21
4
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
3
    
11
    
10
    
 
< 2.5%
   26   
    
yes
yes
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
    
    
yes
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
    
    
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
    
    
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
yes
> 2.5%
   26   
    
yes
yes
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
yes
    
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
yes
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
    
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
> 2.5%
   27   
    
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
yes
yes
    
yes
yes
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
    
yes
yes
yes
    
yes
yes
yes
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
yes
    
    
    
yes
    
yes
yes
yes
    
    
    

 

The Election Model Final 18 National Pre-Election Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

   
 
Sample
Poll
Final Poll
 
2-party
 
75 % UVA Projected
 
5-Poll Moving Average
   Election Model
   18 National Polls
    
    AP
    Time
    LAT
    ICR
    Nwk
 
    Pew
    ARG
    ABC
    NBC
    Gallup
 
    Dem Corp
    FOX
    CBS
    TIPP
    Econ
 
    Marist
    Zogby
    Harris
Date
Average
        
20-Oct
21-Oct
24-Oct
26-Oct
29-Oct
 
30-Oct
30-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
 
31-Oct
31-Oct
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
 
1-Nov
2-Nov
2-Nov
Size
 1720 
      
976
803
1698
817
1005
 
2408
1258
3511
1014
1866
 
1018
1400
1125
1284
2903
 
1166
1200
5508
Type
     
     
LV
LV
RV
RV
RV
 
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV
 
LV
RV
RV
LV
RV
 
LV
LV
LV
Kerry
 47.28 %
      
49
46
48
44
45
 
46
49
48
47
48
 
48
48
46
44
49
 
49
47
50
Bush
 46.89 %
      
46
51
47
46
48
 
45
48
47
48
46
 
47
45
47
45
45
 
48
48
47
 
Kerry
 50.21 % 
       
51.6
47.4
50.5
48.9
48.4
 
50.5
50.5
50.5
49.5
51.1
 
50.5
51.6
49.5
49.4
52.1
 
50.5
49.5
51.5
Bush
 49.79 % 
    
48.4
52.6
49.5
51.1
51.6
 
49.5
49.5
49.5
50.5
48.9
 
49.5
48.4
50.5
50.6
47.9
 
49.5
50.5
48.5
Diff
 0.41 % 
    
 3.2
-5.2
 1.1
-2.2
-3.2
 
 1.1
 1.0
 1.1
-1.1
 2.1
 
 1.1
 3.2
-1.1
-1.1
 4.3
 
 1.0
-1.1
 3.1
 
Kerry
 50.90 %
      
52.0
47.5
51.0
50.8
49.5
 
52.0
50.5
51.0
50.0
51.8
 
51.0
52.5
50.5
51.5
52.8
 
50.5
50.0
51.5
Bush
 48.10 %
      
47.0
51.5
48.0
48.3
49.5
 
47.0
48.5
48.0
49.0
47.3
 
48.0
46.5
48.5
47.5
46.3
 
48.5
49.0
47.5
 
Kerry
 50.88 %
      
52.0
49.8
50.2
50.3
50.2
 
50.2
50.8
50.8
50.6
51.1
 
50.9
51.3
51.2
51.5
51.7
 
51.6
51.1
51.3
Bush
 48.12 %
      
47.0
49.3
48.8
48.7
48.9
 
48.9
48.3
48.3
48.4
48.0
 
48.2
47.8
47.9
47.6
47.4
 
47.5
48.0
47.8

 

[msongs]

1. too bad congressional dems have done little or NOTHING to prevent election fraud. at least here in

California we have a new secretary of state and busy local activists who are changing things rapidly.

the problem is in borderline states where election fraud makes a big difference in a close outcome.

Msongs
www.msongs.com

[babylonsister]

2. Rec'd. nt

[phrigndumass]

3. I've bookmarked this ... Is the data at the link updated daily?

Excellent, very helpful information for the math nerd in me! Thanks for posting this, tiptoe!

I'm projecting 126.7 million recorded votes this year. Your data refers to 122.3 million recorded votes in 2004, as compared to the 125.7 million votes cast. Also noticed that 5.4 million votes cast were not recorded in 2000, and 3.4 million not recorded in 2004.

Hoping the vote theft doesn't go over 5 million this year ... Obama needs to gain even more ground to bypass the vote theft. I show him up by 4.4 million votes right now.

:kick: :thumbsup:

[tiptoe]

6. thanks

updates probably will be about twice a week

[phrigndumass]

7. Great ... if you add these posts to your journal, I'll blogroll it

It would be interesting to track your posts over time.

Thanks tiptoe!!! :D

[yodermon]

4. (completely off-topic, but how did you do that HTML formatting?

I see it's all styled DIVs, no tables, but how did you get it exported into a format that can be posted to DU? thanks)

[VotesForWomen]

5. how did they come up with O getting a minimum of 50% of undecideds?

[tiptoe]

8. the numbers used for scenario analysis range around an estimated "base case" figure...

In 2004, incumbent Bush was being challenged by Kerry, who was a longer-term and better-known Senator than Obama at time of their respective candidacies. "75%" was used for that challenger's "base case" on the basis of pollster historical experience with Undecided Voters. The other challenger scenario numbers considered for the Kerry-Bush campaign ranged between 60% and 87% (i.e. around the 75% base case figure).

You can read statements by professional pollsters for an understanding why and to what extent "Undecided Voters" have historically "broken for the challenger". (Click on the "undecided voters" link in the article: You'll see mentioned ratios like 2:1 (67%) and 4:1 (80%) and even 90%.)

Because Obama has been in the Senate only for 4 years and because McCain is much longer-term and very experienced, Obama can be treated as a "challenger" relative to McCain.
-- Lesser-known than Kerry, though, 60% becomes the *base case estimate* for candidate Obama, and the other numbers chosen for UVA scenario analysis purposes range around that lower base-case figure -- thus between 50% and 70%.
-- Obama's poll numbers improve as undecided voters get to know him better; McCain's numbers likely will worsen as campaign rhetoric ensues, and people learn more about him. Obama's numbers will climb, as the Undecideds gravitate to the "challenger".

[tiptoe]

9. typo correction:

see http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6370891&mesg_id=6373939