McCain has a Lincoln Chafee problem, and why he's going to lose

[rhombus]

In 2006, under normal circusmtances, Republican Lincoln Chafee would have kept his senate seat. Chafee wasn't particularly loathed by his constituents in Rhode Island. On the contrary, he was well-liked and respected. He had high favorables too.

But what did him in was the political headwind he ran into. 2006 was a change election, just like 2008 is going to be. And Democrats would rather have a full-blooded progressive than have a quasi, pretentious one on their side.


This is exactly what John McCain faces in 2008 just like Chafee did in 2006 - a Republican base that doesn't trust him, and a Democratic base which wants a Democratic president so bad that even though some Democrats may like McCain on a personal level, they are going to pull the Democratic lever in the voting booth.

[PretzelWarrior]

1. I agree except likeability part

as the nation gets to know Obama more...and are reintroduced to the new TwistedTalk McGrumpyPants, they will prefer Obama at their gut level--even some Republicans who often would say they support GOP platform.

[ZinZen]

3. TwistedTalk McGrumpyPants!

LOL, I love that and am going to steal it. Comparing Chafee who I think is a class act and TwistedTalk McGrumpyPants are apple and oranges. Chafee was usually a true moderate sane Republican who was a Republican because of family tradition. At this juncture in politics Chafee's poltical views are more aligned with being a Dem.

TwistedTalk McGrumpyPants got on the Bush crazy train express and is getting ready to run off the tracks.

[Captain Hilts]

2. Compared to Whitehouse, Chaffee came across as an entitled lazy ass...

whose continued status as a Republican kept Trent Lott the majority leader.

Same with Connie Morella, she was very much liked, but her being an R kept Gingrich, etc. in the majority and, like Chaffee, she had NO clout in the party.

The Republican Party completely ignored Chaffee and he had no clout with them whatsoever. He should have switched parties or been traded for Lieberman and a senator to be named later.

I have a lot of friends in RI and Whitehouse is a big hit.

[OmahaBlueDog]

7. Bottom line, we can no longer afford well-meaning Republican friends on the Hill

I've heard many say that Chafee wasn't so bad, and that Collins and Snowe vote with us a lot of the time. OK, but they still caucus with the Republicans and support the current party leadership. If they really don't agree with the GOP, but can't bring themselves to join us, then they should declare as Independents (a la Jeffords) and just not caucus for leadershi or committe positions. Otherwise, we need to get them out of office. It's that simple.

[Captain Hilts]

8. Yes. Snowe, despite voting 'R' sometimes, fits better with us. Collins too.

They've gotta go.

Kind of how when Chuck Robb voted to confirm Clarence Thomas. That's when I knew he had to go.

[stellanoir]

9. That commentary is not fair.

Linc is a much beloved character who is a total eccentric.

He went out to Montana to shoe horses after law school.

Voting against him was the toughest vote I've ever cast. He voted against IWR and was the only Repug to do so.

He's far more than an "entitled lazy ass." He and Sheldon are great friends as are their sons.

Consider relaxing a bit.

There's no frigging comparison between McLame and Chafee.

Oh and Chafee is now an Independent.

[whistle]

4. Name one real democrat who like McCain

[OmahaBlueDog]

5. I think many people in both parties admire McCain as a person -- not his politics

He went through Hell in 'nam, and was a witness and survivor to the worst carrier accident in modern history. He served his country well, and worked with Russ Feingold to bring about some minimal campaign finance reform.

[whistle]

10. I could never hope to know John McCain as a person, so it is only his politics

...which I have to judge him on and his politics suck! I think 99% of those who vote democratic probably would see McCain in much the same way so any democratic voter who deliberate votes specifically for McCain to be our next president would have to be uniformed, blind, deaf, ignorant, vindictive of just plain crazy.

[rhombus]

6. Hmm, no real Dems for sure

But some Lieberdems and Lanny Davis Dems LOVE McCain.

McCain still has a very serious base problem. He has to pivot to the right to motivate the GOP base and in so doing, he's going to lose more moderate support.

[whistle]

13. Lieberman is no longer a democrat and any democrat who sides with Lieberman

...is a hypocrite, but yes I suppose for this coming election there are those people who have been registered democrats who also voted for the Independent Joe Lieberman in 2006 who may still be loyal to Lieberman and thus follow his request to vote as republicans. But those people who choose to do that are not democrats even though they may still claim they are.

[Doctor_J]

11. Bzzzt. Thanks for playing

Chaffee is honorable, moderate, sane, young, and personable. He's as far from McCain as you can get in the GOP

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

14. That's pretty much what I was going to say exactly

Honestly, had he survived, he would have pulled a Jim Jeffords. There are three of four senate Democrats more conservative than Chaffee. His party had left him, and he had no place else to go.

[AllentownJake]

12. Chafee inherited the party from his father

The GOP was alot different when his father and grandfather signed up than it is today.

[TahitiNut]

15. Yup. The GOP actually had a viable Liberal Wing.

Just like the Democrats had their Dixiecrat Wing. :shrug: Times change.

[grantcart]

16. Conservatives have noted these 'head' winds and have documented academic

research that confirms them.

In the thread below statistical analysis over the last 60 years shows that based on there indicators unrelated to the campaigns themselves there is a 65% probability that Obama not only wins but wins by a landslide.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6304016

[rasputin1952]

17. McCain is going to lose because he is an enpty shell...

there is absolutely nothing there.

passion: he comes off like a rock

Ideas: nothing there

Ideology: for of arms, diplomacy does not even enter the picture

Age: More people ar worried about who his running mate will be, he most likely won't survive 1 term

Sanity: big question mark there

bush's 3rd term: obvious

McCain will lose because he's McCain; he is the sacrificial goat for this election.