OWH: Obama rolled the dice on caucus payoff

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10352911

BY ROBYNN TYSVER
WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER

Last summer, officials with Barack Obama's campaign inquired about Nebraska's first-ever Democratic caucuses. They wanted to know the rules and they promised to compete.



Hillary Clinton's campaign didn't show interest in Nebraska until a few weeks before the Feb. 9 caucuses.

By then, it was too little, too late. Obama pummeled Clinton in Nebraska.

The Nebraska win was one of 10 straight that Obama scored after the Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses.

The victories put him on top in the national polls and gave him what proved to be an insurmountable lead among pledged delegates.

"By the time Obama's run was won, she was in a hole that she couldn't dig out of," said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines.


FULL story at link.

[Condem]

1. Good article, Omaha

Kudos for Iowa!

[Captain Hilts]

2. Clinton's core constituency: women, older voters, people with kids...

are not comfortable with caucuses or do not have the time/means to attend them.

[Liberal Veteran]

5. That meme is kinda tired and pathetic.

Obama just out organized her in caucus states.

It's just that simple.

[Captain Hilts]

6. Yes, he did out-organize her, but ...

her gains would have been limited.

Women, in particular, do not engage in the acts that reinforce political knowledge, behavior as often as men - particulary when they have to debate with men in public.

In Iowa, holding caucuses at night further discourages people who have kids or two jobs or don't feel comfortable staying out at night from participating. It's that simple. I've been pointing this out for over a year.

Eight years in polling had me studying this process and states hold caucuses because they are less expensive than primaries. They're supply driven, not demand driven.

[Condem]

7. Yessir, Mookie

Diebold's biggest fan.

[Captain Hilts]

9. I don't trust local officals and 1000 people to represent an entire state's voters either.

No, I don't trust Diebold. So, stop impetuously jumping to ignorant conclusions. I'd prefer to use these:

[Condem]

11. 1000 people, Mookie?

My caucus had 760. If you want to talk about true democracy, abolish the electoral college. Our system isn't close to perfect but it's what we have. Ever been to a caucus?

[roguevalley]

25. I don't care what you don't like, mookie. Don't diss my state and

our efforts. She was too arrogant and ignorant to run in the caucuses and she got her butt handed to her for it. Them was the rules.

[Liberal Veteran]

12. We held our caucus at 2 in the afternoon on a Saturday.

Women outnumbered the men.

Most of the women were older.

Some brought their children.

Only one African-American and he was a male.

We live in a lower-middle class area.

Obama still won.

[Cha]

21. Yeah, People across the board can

can see Obama's the real deal.

[pnorman]

24. Thanks for that info.

I had no direct means to verify/dispute the previous generalization about caucuses being tilted against "Clinton's base". So I more or less accepted it as true, at least in part.

pnorman

[roguevalley]

26. our caucus had everyone but the biggest supporters were Obama

women over 55.

[XemaSab]

14. So you're saying women are lazy, dumb, and apathetic?

:shrug:

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

17. What insane gibberish are you talking?

Women, in particular, do not engage in the acts that reinforce political knowledge

Care to explain that statement - both to clarify the nonsensical grammar and the actual point you're trying to make?

[Omaha Steve]

18. OOPS!

(states hold caucuses because they are less expensive than primaries)

Nebraska and Iowa both had a caucus and a primary. Clinton was closer but still lost in the Ne. primary. But the primary had no delegates on the line. Nebraska had a caucus to get it's contribution to the party moved from May (state laws says primary is second Tuesday in May) to March. We had the spot light for a moment. Obama made the first stop of a Presidential candidate since the 70's.

[Ken Burch]

23. Obama would've won even if every state had had a primary rather than caucuses.

Please, for the love of God, there's no good reason for anybody to STILL be trying to de-legitimize Obama's nomination. HRC knows Obama won fair and square and she accepted that yesterday.

[KittyWampus]

10. If there weren't caucuses, Obama's organization would have had a different strategy.

[Cha]

22. Right...they went with the rules..

they became experts.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

16. These look like older voters:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6319287&mesg_id=6319287

[Cha]

20. Too bad.. but, the

Nation benefitted.

[Zhade]

27. Low information conservatives...

NT!

[Crunchy Frog]

28. There were loads of women, older voters, and people with kids

at my caucus. 2/3 of them went for Obama.

[MrModerate]

3. Which suggests to me that . . .

Not only does Obama grasp the audacity of hope, he (and his staff) grasp the audacity of running a successful campaign for the presidency -- and that gives *me* hope.

For a first-time "inexperienced" presidential candidate, he's certainly looked very, very, very sharp.

[rainbow4321]

4. Much like the HRC people bumbling TX..they ignored the caucus part of our primary

Obama had people on the ground in TX LONG before our primary/caucus.

Hillary's people realized only a COUPLE WEEKS before our primary that we were a TWO step process (per an article in the WaPo back then, they had a meeting and freaked when they finally did decide to take time to look at TX's system).
Given their reaction, you would never known that Bill Clinton went thru the TX 2 step---twice. Something the M$M never bought up--HRC and her people spent SO much time complaining about our 2 step process yet no one ever said to her "uh, did you have a problem with them back when your husband WON them??". The same M$M that announced TX as a HRC win that Tuesday night and never once said "hey, it IS a 2 step--we need to wait til those caucus votes are in, also". When the dust settled and what mattered MOST--delegates---were counted from the TX primary/caucus--Obama won the most delegates and that meant he won TX!!

[BlooInBloo]

8. The smarter person put together the smarter team.

[Liberal Veteran]

13. Shhh. It's no longer polite to say that.

:D

[Peace Patriot]

15. Thank the Lord (or was it the McGovern Commission?) for the caucuses!

Or Howard Dean? I'm not sure how the caucus system got designed (in its 2008 form), but I do know this: It is a failsafe against the highly riggable "trade secret" code voting machines.

And what a beautiful irony that Nebraska was the bellweather caucus! Omaha, Nebraska, is the headquarters of one of the worst, most rightwing, scariest, most secretive of the three main election theft corporations: ES&S. Their initial funder, and major investor, is rightwing billionaire recluse, Howard Ahmanson, who also gave one million dollars to the extremist 'christian' Chalcedon foundation (which touts the death penalty for homosexuals, among other other things). It was they who pioneered the legal arguments for the election theft industry that their "right" to profit from our elections, with their "TRADE SECRET" code in the voting machines, TRUMPS the right of the voters to know how our votes were counted, even in an el stinko election like FL-13 in '06. Such arrogance! It is they who manufacture their touchscreen voting machines for the U.S. "market" in miserable, sweatshop conditions in the Philippines. (See Dan Rather's "The Trouble With Touchscreens," www.HD.net.) They are evil, in other words--and more dangerous than Diebold because they are less well-known. And who knows what their interest in the Democratic nomination process might have been? All I know is that I am VERY GLAD that there was an alternative process NOT counted by them (or their brethren), in which the people counted their own votes, and in which an insurgent campaign was possible. That's what democracy looks like! No crowned monarchs! Everybody has a chance to be president. Superior abilities can win.

And it happened in Nebraska--where my Daddy was from--and whose people I've always known to be progressive, and whose real views, and true majority, I have felt, were being artificially suppressed during the Bush Junta.

Well, we'll see what happens in November, with no caucuses as a failsafe. I have my worries about it--as we all should--but I have a feeling that the election thieves are going to back off, and not endanger the long term uses of their "trade secret" code by reversing Obama's landslide (although they may well shave his mandate). The election reform movement has not been able to dislodge these fascist corporations (yet), but it has greatly increased awareness and vigilance, has managed to discredit the touchscreens (no paper trail; frequent mis-counts) and to achieve a paper ballot backup in some places that didn't have it before (like Florida), and to reverse a trend toward paperless (in California, for instance). And there will be much more monitoring of the voting and analysis of the results than there ever was before. But the system is still highly riggable (in states with paper ballot backup, ZERO percent, or only 1%, of the ballots are actually counted.) And we shouldn't let an Obama victory lull us. The "trade secret" code is like a scorpion hiding under a rock. It is used in all systems (optiscans, central tabulators, voter registration systems), and can strike opportunistically, when we least expect it. We MUST ban private corporate control of the vote counting, and restore vote counting that everyone can see and understand, no matter what happens in November.

[Cha]

19. I remember Omaha Obama!!

We were so happy when Obama won the Nebraska caucuses..Woo!

<snips from your article>

"Iowa showcased Obama's strengths at building a grass-roots campaign on the shoulders of young and enthusiastic supporters. It also proved that Obama, an African-American, could win in a predominantly white state.

Before Iowa, polls had showed more blacks favoring Clinton because they thought Obama could not win. Clinton was seen widely as the "inevitable" nominee. After Iowa, blacks moved solidly into the Obama camp."

"Iowa made Obama a player. It indicated the potential expansion of the Democratic electorate, with all the new people coming into the process, especially young voters," Goldford said."

"Obama then redeployed campaign staffers across the nation, many into states typically ignored during a Democratic nomination battle, such as Alaska and Idaho. He paid especially close attention to the caucus states."

Thanks, Steve!

[BeyondGeography]

29. Obama has forever changed the game

The end result of the 2008 campaign is that all 50 states will matter to any candidate who wants to win in the future. The Democratic party will be strengthened by this for a long time to come.

[lancer78]

30. Hillary's crew

was like Bush's crew in Iraq. They had no plan how to proceed after a certain "Mission Accomplished" moment. At least Hillary's crew didn't take 5 years to figure it out.

[Cha]

31. hilary's crew didn't have

5 years to figure it out..they lost before 5 years went by.