Electoral Map for June 7th, 2008

[MadBadger]

I'll be leaving DU soon for a couple months, but while I am here, I plan on updating my electoral prediction map every so often.

Last week, my map looked like this.



I saw Obama winning 290-248

This week I have updated my map slightly



This week, I have Obama winning 301-237.

Two recent polls show Obama gaining on McCain in Missouri and because of that, I shifted it to a weak Obama state that could very easily shift back to McCain. As last week, I have Obama getting 1 electoral vote out of Nebraska and McCain taking the other four. I'm still not ready to move Michigan to the blue side, but I expect to move it back as the General Election season continues.

Tossup states to me this year are New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan. Montana, Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. I think Obama could make some more inroads, but until I see other polling, I'm not ready to move them into Obama's column. I think Iowa will actually turn out to be a safe Obama state as well as Colorado.

It should be interestng to see how or if at all this map changes when adding the VP's into the mix.

[davidpdx]

1. Good work

Don't be a total stranger. Come visit us every once in awhile!

[Carrieyazel]

2. Good map overall. But Missouri and Ohio as blue states I find hard to believe.

Missouri is going to be exceedingly tough. Probably not even in play, despite the polls.

[PBS Poll-435]

3. I tend to look at the ousting of that no-talent Senator Jim Talent.

MO can be done with the right running mate.

And seriously.


We need 320 EVs.

[muryan]

8. Ohio can go blue fairly easily

It was prime to be a double digit win for Hillary, and some downticket dems are doing extremely well in strong republican districts. Obama can win easily by picking a VP that connects with white working class voters, and adapting a strong pro-union message in places like southern dayton, youngstown, and other parts of the state that have been practically devastated by factories moving overseas.

[featherman]

12. Ohio is a likely lock this year - it's been a toss up and very close the past

two elections with a GOP state government. The really poorly run Kerry campaign lost by 180,000 (probably stolen) votes against an incumbent president who still had about a 50% approval rating at the time . Ohio voted for Clinton twice.

The GOP brand name is more damaged in Ohio than any other similar state. When Taft left office his approval rating was 7% (not a misprint).

With Dems counting the votes this time and a far weaker "march to the polls" by RW Christians (as occurred in 2004), I see the Dems carrying Ohio pretty easily this time around.

[Carrieyazel]

16. But with Obama as the nominee, I doubt Ohio is any kind of lock.

It's possible for him of course, but rural, middle/working class Ohio could come out in droves to vote against him.

[muryan]

20. I know no one in Ohio that will come out in "droves" to vote for McSame

I go to Miami University, probably the whitest and most conservative university in the midwest and he has a large amount of support here, even among the trust fund babies that care about nothing besides the designer who made their shoes. If he can close the gap in the cincy suburbs and SE ohio, it'll be a blow out

[featherman]

24. Things have change dramatically in Ohio since 2004

The now legendary "rural white working class small town" voters are traditionally GOP in Ohio and turn many counties red year after year but they are not numerous enough to carry an election. Ted Strickland won Ohio 60-38% in a blowout while losing nearly as many counties as he won.

Here is a map of the Strickland election showing how a Dem wins there while losing that RWWCST vote. Just keep the margins as close as you can and carry Cleveland, Columbus, Akron, Toledo and their suburbs. Keep Cincy close enough and take Warren County. Etc.

[muryan]

29. Interesting map

It's always bothered me that Ohio cities don't really perform like cities in elections. Well besides cleveland

[MadBadger]

14. Right now, Obama is polling ahead in Ohio. I think he will get better there.

[Carrieyazel]

17. I've only seen one poll that has him ahead. Most others have him behind.

[muryan]

22. The survey USA poll is probably a bit off at the moment

and as such is skewing the RCP poll average. However, Obama up by 5% or even 10% by convention time is very likely, pending his VP choice

[MadBadger]

23. You have to take dates into account as well though

The one that has him polling ahead from SUSA is much newer than the other polls. Plus, I expect him to get a bump as some of the party solidifies behind him.

[muryan]

4. Adding VPs should start to solidify the poll numbers

I've been genuinely surprised at how strongly Obama polls in Iowa considering how close that state has been in recent elections. Also, I would keep an eye on polling in Indiana and North Carolina in weeks to come. He is polling extremely well in Indiana (once again surprising) and I think Barr can have the biggest effect in a state like NC where Obama has less ground to make up, as opposed to a state like Georgia.

[grantcart]

6. Barr is polling 6% in NC

[muryan]

10. Considering thats the first poll that they've done with Barr, he has a much higher ceiling than 6%

Hell he's at 10% in GA.

[Carrieyazel]

13. Nader is polling 6% nationally. Could hurt Barack.

[MattNC]

15. Nader is not

going to get 6% of the vote nationally. no way.

[muryan]

18. He's actually pulling more from McCain

For some strange reason

[MadBadger]

21. Actually, in that same poll, without Barr and Nader, Obama is up 49-46.

With both of them included, Obama leads 47-43.

[grantcart]

5. where are you going?

[MadBadger]

7. I'm still a young one, so I can do things with my summer

CIT counselor at a sleepaway camp for a bunch of 17 year olds.

[kentuck]

9. So you don't think Obama will win NC or MI ?

Or Arkansas, or Montana, or Louisiana, or MS??

[MadBadger]

11. I'm going by what I see right now.

Right now, I think McCain is in the lead in Michigan, partly due to the whole Michigan debacle. Obama is behind in North Carolina, the question is by how much. I ultimately think that Obama will win Michigan but for the sake of this map, Im keeping it red. I dont think Obama will win Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. I think he could win MOntana, but I think McCain is still the favorite there.

[grantcart]

25. polls right now are not that meaningful

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=132

[Carrieyazel]

19. Michigan is the only state in that group that he could win.

Louisiana and Mississippi? Those aren't even possible.

[featherman]

26. Interestingly I read an analysis of MS that posits if you get more than 20%

of the white vote, say 24% or so, you can win MS by carrying 93% or more of the AA vote which makes up 38% of the electorate (largest in the nation).

Personal note: I am SO HAPPY to be out of the primaries and into the electoral season. I live for this stuff every four years.

[fujiyama]

32. I read that too

In MS, it's all about African American turnout and doing better than Kerry did among whites.

I don't see why it's impossible. But it will take a TON of effort. That would be the greatest electoral upset in years.

[muryan]

30. The first 2 are definitely possible

with MI being probably in my mind. The next 4 are somewhat of a stretch

[cynatnite]

27. Why is Ohio blue? I didn't think Obama had overtaken McCain there? n/t

[featherman]

28. SUSA on 5/17 - Obama +9

[fujiyama]

31. Michigan is more likely to stay blue than Missourri or Ohio

and it has gone Democratic the last four elections.

[Donkey_Punch_Dubya]

33. I was reading some archived posts from Oct 2004

Kerry was polling up 5-6% in states like Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and New Hampshire. And that wasn't 47-42 with 11% undecided. They were all like 50-44, 51-46. And all of them turned out to be 50-49 or 51-49, many for Bush.

We cannot get complacent, and we cannot expect to win 320 EVs, because it will be VERY hard to do. States like Montana, Mississippi and North Carolina will need a 15-30% turnaround in voting patterns to win them.

Bush defied several tenets of election doctrine: incumbent with approval ratings below 50% loses; 60-75% of late undecideds will break for the challenger. Whether it was from stolen votes (happened), some people voting republican being less likely to talk to exit pollsters and phone pollsters (almost certainly happened), or late smears like "Stolen Honor" changing some intelligence-challenged voters minds (happened), those polls were either outside the margin of error or at the edge of margin of error, all for the republican candidate.

[ccharles000]

34. Obama will win NC.