States McCain is trying to win

[Eric J in MN]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080606/ap_on_el_pr/mccain

Six are states Bush narrowly won in 2000 — Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada — and that McCain must defend. Four are states Democrat John Kerry won by slim margins four years ago — Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — and that McCain is looking to win.

Other potential Democratic-held targets for McCain's campaign include, Washington, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Delaware, Maine and Connecticut.

If you're in one of these states, please consider making a donation to your state Democratic party.

[tekisui]

1. Grampy is gonna have a hard ass time in Iowa, Missouri, CO, and NM.

He can forget MN, WI, and MI. The last seven will not even be close.

[Name removed]

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[Carrieyazel]

26. McCain will have a hard time in Missouri? I think it's the other way around.

Wisconsin I wouldn't be too sure about. It's a state that's too close for comfort.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. McCain has ZERO chance here in Colorado.

With Big Oil Bob Schaeffer running downticket for McCain, Colorado is not going to go red anytime soon - Obama and soon to be U.S. Senator Mark Udall from Colorado.

Udall is squeaky clean and is very popular here.

Hawkeye-X

[muryan]

4. I know from a friend who is working for McCain

He is putting a lot of money into OH, PA, NH, NJ, and FL. Those at the moment are his campaigns biggest priorities.

(Sometimes it pays off to sleep with the other side)

[Hawkeye-X]

7. NH? Why NH? I know it has gone Republican before..

But it has been trending blue, and Sununu is VERY unpopular there - Shaheen (IIRC) is polling better than Sununu atm.

PA, NJ, and OH will go blue, so let him waste $$ for nothing. FL is actually, in my view, a tossup.

Hawkeye-X

[muryan]

8. McCain is really well liked in NH

hes hoping to create a perception by pulling ahead there. Crack in the armor that is the new england area, etc etc

[featherman]

9. Gore lost NH and McCain has spent A LOT of time there in the past 9 years

[muryan]

16. I'll trade NH for VA

if thats the way McSame wants it

[PBS Poll-435]

23. Nah. Let's make this like a REALLY lop-sided Monopoly trade.

He can have New Hampshire (Mediterranian Avenue) and Iowa (Baltic Avenue)

We will take Texas (Marvin Gardens,) Florida (Ventnor Avenue,) and Virginia (Atlantic Avenue.)

That sounds fair, right?


:P

[muryan]

24. True

I wouldn't mind the guy before McCain losing his get out of jail free card in the deal either

[PBS Poll-435]

25. Hehe

Great response!

[featherman]

10. Funny comment from somebody last night about New Jersey "the Great White Whale"

of Republican hopes year after year. New Jersey polls closely enough early in the year giving them false hope and they put money and time into it and then it always votes for the Democrat comfortably. I'm glad to see McCain chasing the same obsession.

[Hippo_Tron]

27. You know it wouldn't surprise me if the DNC pays off pollsters to show close results in Jersey

So that Republicans will drop cash into the expensive New York media market all for nothing. Menendez beat Kean Jr. by a healthy 9 points in 2006. Interestingly enough in that race the Mairjuana Party candidate had the fourth best showing.

[featherman]

5. Delusional, in all seriousness

There's not a state on that list that is even on my "toss up" category except MO, NV, and maybe NH

However it is a presidential campaign.... it's early...and they have to say SOMETHING that indicates a path to victory

But that list is laughable

[sandnsea]

6. Zero chance in WA, OR - and NJ, DE, ME, CT

The people saying this are as nutty as he is.

[Recursion]

11. ROTFL

MN? MI? WI? Bwa ha ha ha ha. Yeah, John, please spend money trying to win those states rather than shoring up CO, NM, AZ, and NV.

[woolldog]

18. he can take MI, WI, PA, OH, NV, NH

those are all states he could easily win.

[Hippo_Tron]

31. I don't see how he wins anything Bush didn't in '04, other than maybe New Hampshire

Because that state is so damn erratic. Michigan (like New Jersey) is a bastion of GOP false hope every year. He's polling marginally ahead of Obama there and 22% are still undecided. That means that 22% (along with the 37% Obama already has) haven't been scared off by Reverand Wright bullshit and most of them will come over to Obama because he is the superior campaigner and it's a Democratic year.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be close but there is no reason to believe Obama won't pull it out in those states if Kerry did in 2004.

[depakid]

39. Agreed

And if he wins some combination of them- say, Ohio and Pennsylvania that's oretty much the ballgame.

I know some are claiming that there will be a "new map," etc. but the fact is that would require much larger swings than are historically probable, and it underestimates both the polarized nature of the electorate and the cultural inertia that has to be overcome to convince people to vote for the new kid on the block.

My take from the numbers was basically echoed by Professor Geoffrey Garrett of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

"Democrats thought the road to the White House would be a cakewalk. Now it looks like a dogfight."

http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/public-celebrations-hide-private-consternation-over-the-new-nominee/2008/06/04/1212258906216.html

[blonndee]

12. We're taking back New Mexico!

Yes, we will.

[dana_b]

13. WA???? LOL right , grandpa McGrumpy pants!!

:crazy:

[quakerboy]

14. McCain in oregon?

Wow. Somehow I dont see it. I have yet to see a single McCain 08 anything, anywhere in this state. Nada, zip, zilch.

[featherman]

38. McCain loses Oregon by +10 - not gonna be close

[dmkinsey]

15. Ain't no way McCain's gettin Michigan

n

[muryan]

28. I'm slightly alarmed

at how well he is polling there at the moment, I just hope the primary fuckup hasn't caused any lasting damage.

[Hippo_Tron]

33. Michigan = Bastion of GOP false hope

This time in 2006 we were worried about Granholm and Stabbenow and both of them cruised to re-election. Also if you look at the Michigan polls 22% are undecided. That is almost certainly due to the fact that Obama didn't campaign in Michigan during the primaries and while voters there are thinking about supporting him, they want to get to know more about him first. Obama is a far superior campaigner to McGramps and will win over those undecideds.

[Carrieyazel]

29. I think he has a better shot in Michigan than he does in PA.

He's been polling well there lately.

[Name removed]

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[AllentownJake]

19. He has no chance in hell in PA

Rendell will be turning over the keys to the Machine and with Casey and Rendell teaming up for Obama it will be very hard for him to get any traction.

The GOP has been very weak here since Bush got elected and Ridge isn't popular anymore after his little stint in the Bush Administration. The only other well known GOP figure is Specter who is Pro-Choice and won't be making any whistle stop tours soon due to illness. In addition Specter's popularity comes from the Philadelphia area and the subburbs which Obama will carry very easily.

All Obama needs is a Catholic running mate and the state will be in double digits.

He has a better shot in NJ than in PA.

[Swamp Rat]

20. State of Mind

[kerry-is-my-prez]

21. Why isn't Florida on there - or does he think he has that sewn up?

scary...

[Carrieyazel]

30. Yeah, I think they do. Even some Dem strategists think FL is a sure Obama loss.

[muryan]

32. He thinks he has Florida on lock

Considering how little time Obama has spent there so far, its a little bit presumptuous. But the truth is Florida is going to be tough sledding for Obama.

[Hippo_Tron]

34. I don't think Obama will end up winning Florida, BUT

I'm confident it will be a close race and McCain will have to put resources into the state. Polls will show it being close and McCain will probably pull it out by about 5 or 6 on election day due to the racist vote.

[Name removed]

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[lancer78]

35. Obama will likely win MO

800,000 votes were casted in the DEM PRIMARY. In the 2004 general Kerry only got 1.25 Million. The county to watch is Greene in the southwest. If McCain fails to get 58% or greater then Obama has won MO. Bush got 62% in 04 and he won. The repub senator in 06 got 53% and he lost.

Iowa will go Obama. As Illinois is a neibhoring state.

NH will go for Obama as Iraq is highly unpopular there. And McCain has hitched himself to the Iraq war.

Minnesota is safe for Obama as Kerry won by 100K.

Wisconsin is safe for Obama as well as he outperformed Hillary by a huge margin in this mostly white-working class state. There were 1.1 million votes cast in the DEM PRIMARY. In 2004 the total for Kerry was 1.5 million.

Michigan (mainly detroit) will come out heavily for Obama. Kerry won this state by 160K.

NM, CO, and VA are close. I am sure that Obama will win CO as the Dem senatorial candidate is polling well there. If Obama wins VA and CO and all the states mentioned above he would still win even if McCain took OH, PA, and FL. THE EC would be 271 Obama - 267 McCain.

[ccharles000]

36. He should be worried about my state(NC).

The race for North Carolina remains close as the presumptive nominees from both major political parties begin the general election campaign season.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Tar Heel State finds John McCain earning 48% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 45% support. A month ago, before the state’s Democratic Presidential Primary, McCain and Obama were tied at 47% each. Nationally, McCain and Obama are quite competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

McCain now leads by thirteen percentage points among men but trails by five among women. Obama does well among those who earn less than $20,000 or more than $75,000 annually while McCain is strongest among middle-income voters. McCain leads by twenty percentage points among Investors while most non-Investors support Obama. McCain leads among those who are married while Obama leads among those who are not.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Republicans are currently given a 79.0% chance of winning North Carolina’s fifteen Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state by twelve points in 2004 and by thirteen points four years earlier. Immediately prior to release of this poll, North Carolina was rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

McCain is viewed favorably by 53% of the state’s voters while Obama is viewed favorably by 51%. Opinions about Obama are much stronger—37% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic nominee while 30% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the comparable numbers are 18% Very Favorable and 23% Very Unfavorable.

For both candidates, their favorability ratings are down from a month ago—McCain has dropped six points and Obama three. Both are viewed favorably by 46% of unaffiliated voters.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Tar Heel voters favor a federal gas tax holiday while 41% are opposed.

Just 31% believe the federal government needs more revenue to fund important government programs. Most—54%--disagree and believe the federal government already has enough revenue.

By a three-to-one margin (60% to 20%), North Carolina voters oppose an increase in the capital gains tax. Sixty-one percent (61%) believe such a tax hike would hurt the economy.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of North Carolina voters own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. Sixty-three percent (63%) of McCain voters are Investors along with 45% of Obama voters.

Rasmussen Reports recently issued a statement indicating its belief that the Democratic race is over and Obama will be the nominee. In the very unlikely event that the Obama campaign collapses and gives the nomination to Hillary Clinton, McCain leads Clinton in North Carolina 43% to 40%.

The state’s Senate race is also quite competitive as Elizabeth Dole is facing a strong challenge from Kay Hagan.

George W. Bush won 56% of the vote in North Carolina during Election 2004. Today, less than four years later, just 33% say the President is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-two percent (52%) say he is doing a poor job. A month ago, just 47% said Bush was doing a poor job.

The state’s Democratic Governor, Mike Easley, gets better reviews—38% good or excellent and 24% poor. Easley endorsed Clinton in the Democratic Presidential Primary.



We North Carolinians are fed up with repubs. Obama has a fairly good chance of winning here.

[Seabiscuit]

37. McCain is delusional. He's going to lose all 50 states. n/t