CA ballot initiative on equal marriage rights may have an effect on Obama's chances

[ruggerson]

For those who haven't been keeping score:

On Thursday, May 15, The California Supreme Court issued a sweeping decision overturning the state's ban on same sex marriage.

This has the immediate effect of legalizing same sex marriage in California. The bigots asked for a stay of the decision and were denied.

Therefore same sex marriages begin on June 17.

In anticipation of this ruling, a coalition of religious righwing groups had been canvassing California for months, getting signatures for their constitutional ban on gay marriage ballot initiative (yes, believe it or not, in California, one can change the constitution by a simple-majority ballot initiative.)

The initiative, proposed by a coalition of 150 organizations called ProtectMarriage.com, seeks to overturn the state Supreme Court's ruling legalizing same sex marriage.

On Monday, June 2, the Secretary of State announced that the amendment qualified for the fall ballot.

Some Democrats are worried that the ballot initiative will energize the rightwing in California and cost Obama the state (and with it, the election).

See:Could Anti-Gay Marriage Proposal Cost Obama California?

The good news is that new polling data is showing that Californians support marriage equality by 52% to 41%.

The other good news is that Arnold Schwarzenegger is opposing the ballot measure.

However, the McCain forces will try to maximize the ballot initiative to bring their base out to the polls. It's pretty much their best, if not only, shot at winning the state.

It is crucial that this year, both people in California and nationwide, get involved in defeating this measure.

If you are working for Obama or on state races, consider donating some of your phone banking time to defeat the ballot initiative.

Every voter we can get out to the polls to defeat the initiative is another voter for Obama.

This time, progressives, both gay and straight, need to work together to actively defeat the attempt to write Jim Crow status into the California constitution.

The purpose will be twofold: making sure California's electoral votes stay in the Democratic fold, thus electing our nominee, and safeguarding human rights.

PLEASE VISIT THE EQUALITY FOR ALL WEBSITE, SIGN THE PLEDGE TO VOTE "NO" AND CONSIDER VOLUNTEERING YOUR TIME AND ENERGY.

And feel free to make sure this post is widely seen.

[muryan]

1. McCain doesn't have a chance in CA

If Obama works the turnout, it helps get this initiative defeated as well

[ZinZen]

43. As a lifelong Californian

I second Muryan assertion about McCain's chances in this state. None. But he is free to come and waste his money on this state if he likes!

[cynatnite]

2. Gas and groceries are the main concern...not gays and guns...

I don't think it'll pass, but I honestly do not believe it'll hurt Obama much. Gay marriage isn't on the radar for most voters.

[ruggerson]

8. That's what people hoped in Ohio

the point is the more people who turn out to vote against this, the better for our nominee and the more people who turn out to vote for Obama, the better the chances of defeating this.

It will be, singlehandedly, McCain's biggest turnout booster in the state.

[Warren DeMontague]

10. CALIFORNIA IS NOT OHIO.

No offense to Ohio, but.. ahem.

[ruggerson]

11. The point of the OP is to get people involved in defeating this

not to argue about it.

[Warren DeMontague]

14. Damn straight. I intend to engage fully against the fucker.

However, I have noticed that some folks on DU who don't live in California and don't have a handle on the state sometimes have a tendency to expound as if they're authorities on the place.

Not saying that's you, of course. But I think it's worth reminding people that California is not other parts of the country when it comes to the 'threat' of gay marriage bringing knuckle-draggers out to the polls. We have our share of em here, of course, but they are in the minority.

[ruggerson]

17. Prop 22 (remember that one)

passed overwhelmingly, even though it had polled fairly tightly.

The more people we get out to vote against this, the better for all our candidates, including Obama (though I don't necessarily buy the alarm in the NBC story). Conversely, the more people Obama gets out to the polls, hopefully, the better to defeat the amendment.

[Warren DeMontague]

26. I do. There has been a sea change in opinion since then.

And as California goes, so goes the rest of the country, eventually.

You can thank all those "kids" who have been coming out of the woodwork to support Obama, actually...

for all their vaunted tolerance, baby boomers tend to skew more homophobic in attitudes; my generation, Gen X, is sort of in-between (I remember when we were growing up, homophobia was pretty much the norm-- but the folks I grew up with now all seem to have evolved in their attitudes) but I think -and the survey you link to reflects this- that it's the younger generation, "Y" or whatever, where the attitudes towards GLBT rights have really turned around.

So between Prop 22 and now, you not only have big societal changes, you have a whole new crop of voters who tend to be a little more reasonable, on average.

[ruggerson]

27. I agree with you

but I don't think we should take anything for granted. The more people we get involved to defeat this amendment, the better.

[Warren DeMontague]

36. Oh, nothing would please me more than to see Randy Thomasson's face when it goes down in flames. nt

[ZinZen]

45. Don't worry Ruggerson

Most Californians won't let the theofascists win. Were sick to death of them.

[ruggerson]

46. Check this out

this is the kind of idiocy we'll all have to be dealing with in the next few months:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_9503017

[Warren DeMontague]

50. Yeah, well, whaddaya expect? That's Bakersfield. Check this out:

2006 Population, Kern County: 780,117

2006 Population, Los Angeles County: 9,948,081

[cynatnite]

13. I can't speak to Ohio specifically...

but if you look at the polls...the economy ranks ahead of Iraq. Gay marriage is not going to be a major player like it was back in 2004.

[ruggerson]

15. For a certain subset of the electorate (namely religious rightwingers) it is

It's symbiotic: the more people we get out to vote against this, the better for Obama.

Some here seem to understimate the passion of the religious nutjobs.

[Warren DeMontague]

19. I don't underestimate their passion, but I underestimate their power in California.

Look, we should be aware of it, we should oppose it, we should work against it. I don't think it's going to pass. Most people in California, at least in the coastal counties (which is where most of the people are) really don't give a shit if two gay people want to get married.

Unless they're their friends, in which case they want to know where they're registered.

Just out of curiosity; do you live here?

[cynatnite]

31. Look at 2006...we won. Gay marriage was not on the radar. n/t

[LeftyMom]

3. EFA needs more volunteers

But if a meteor flew in from space and struck Obama square on the head, the smoking hole where he used to be would still beat McCain by a healthy margin in California.

[varelse]

6. Priceless

and true... :rofl:

[ProSense]

4. Make believe BS.

The media's job is going to be trying their best to make McCain look competitive.

[ruggerson]

7. That's not the point of the post

I would think you would want to defeat the amendment and get out more voters for Obama.

[cbayer]

5. I vote in CA and I am 100% behind defeating this referendum.

Some of the polls I have seen have been very disturbing. I will work to make sure we uphold the court's decision.

[Warren DeMontague]

9. The short answer? No. Obama WILL win CA. And as you note, the anti-gay marriage amendment isn't

all that popular of an idea.

If any state is friendly to GLBT rights, it's California, where we're generally ahead of the curve on stuff like that.

If McCain wants to expend a whole ton of resources on California, let him. He's going to lose here.

[bunnies]

12. Right. McCain has a chance in CA. Picture that.

:rofl:

[Franks Wild Years]

16. Exactly - Kerry won CA by 1.2m in 2004.

Honestly...even with an abnormally high number of right-wing bigots crawling out of the woodwork it would take something extraordinarily disastrous to turn that state Red.

[bunnies]

21. Exactly. CA is about the LAST state we need to fret about.

McCain has ZERO chance. Less than zero.

[ruggerson]

22. well we need to fret about

the amendment, don't we?

[bunnies]

28. Dont the majority of Californians support gay marriage now?

I thought I just read an article to that effect the other day. :shrug:

[ruggerson]

30. There are conflicting polls

the Field poll was encouraging. An LA Times poll was not.

I'm hopeful that this time, straight folks will get very involved in defeating this, as the gay community can't do it without our allies. Which is why I posted the link to Equality For All.

[bunnies]

32. I wasnt aware of conflicting polls.

The article I read made it seem like a cakewalk. Since thats not the case, then yes, work needs to be done. I think that this is where Obamas young supporters will come in. But I will definitely do whatever I can... even from NH. I'll check out the site now. :hug:

[ruggerson]

33. thanks!

:loveya:

[tishaLA]

18. Rachel Maddow correctly pointed out that in MA, when

marriage equality finally came to the state, all the RWers who had been flying off the handle finally cooled down. They realized that lesbians and gay men marrying didn't cause the commonwealth to topple; things just went on as before.

I suspect CA will be very much like that. People will have 5 months to get used to it and to see that it's not a big deal.

[ruggerson]

20. Let's hope so

in the mean time, I trust you'll register at the link. :)

[tishaLA]

34. you know I will

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ruggerson]

24. It's already on the ballot

the Sec'y Of State certified the signatures this week.

http://www.ebar.com/news/article.php?sec=news&article=3045

[Major Hogwash]

25. "cats and dogs . . living together . . mass hysteria"

Reminds me of the Ghostbusters movie.

[ShadowLiberal]

29. It won't be enough, a decent chuck of the amendment's votes will be Obama supporters

Like it or not, there's a minority of democrats (more older ones I believe) who would almost definitely vote for Obama, but are all too willing to support a gay marriage ban.

I haven't seen any polls on that number in California, but I recall it's something like maybe a 2/3's in support of gay rights/marriage (not sure which) to 1/3 against it split within the party.

[FrenchieCat]

35. No it won't. Californians will not be voting McCain no matter what.....

Please.

Go take that propaganda of Wedge Issues elsewhere.

One thing people are not is stupid.......not hardly enough of them, anyways.

[ruggerson]

38. Will you be working to defeat the amendment?

Will you get involved and actively get your husband's church involved in defeating the amendment?

http://www.equalityforall.com/

[FrenchieCat]

39. That's the kind of church we belong to........

However, chuches and politics is no longer a good mix, especially Black churches. The Pastorgating and all those who pushed it made sure of that. :(

[ruggerson]

40. Very cool

I hope you can raise awareness about the amendment in the community. I remember reading about the church and it seemed very involved.

[Hawaii Hiker]

37. Let's get something straight: even the woo-woo man would win against McBush in CA..

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[ruggerson]

41. Let's hope so

The best strategy is to take nothing for granted.

[Danger Mouse]

49. do you mean Bubb Rubb???

[KAZ]

42. Thanks for the links. I will work for equal rights!

[ruggerson]

44. welcome

that's great! hopefully most of us here will.

[KAZ]

47. If we can't do this, then I'd rather not live in this country.

Rug, we are so close! It's going to happen in our lifetime (and I'm pretty old).

[Danger Mouse]

48. I doubt it'll give McCain the state, but we must fight with all our strength to make sure...

this measure does NOT pass.