Webb being VP... Could he affect bordering states?

[adoraz]

I think if Webb is VP, it is very obvious Obama will win Virginia. My question for anyone who knows a lot about the GE, do VPs usually affect states nearby?

Even if they have a very small impact on the bordering states or states in the same general area, it could make a huge difference with the electoral.



Now, some states he won't win nearby, like Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee. Its pretty clear that it would take a miracle to win those states.

However, some of the other bordering states or states in the general area are North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and you might even make the argument that the rest of the Deep South (including NC) could be affected by a choice from Virginia.

As I said, I don't know how much of an impact a VP has on bordering states, but if there is any at all Webb may be the PERFECT choice as far as the map goes.

[TheDonkey]

1. We must protect PA.

[harun]

7. PA is going to be tough but I think we can win it.

[hokies4ever]

20. PA won't be a swing-state as the election comes close

anyone telling you otherwise is being intellectually dishonest.

[harun]

41. I live in PA and the prediction has nothing to do with intellectual dis-honesty

[mikelgb]

2. no, no, no

[adoraz]

3. could you be more specific?

Do you mean VPs have no impact at all on bordering states? Its an honest question that I don't know, so thats why I'm asking.

[mikelgb]

11. no

[cbc5g]

4. Judging by the reception he gets here from some, he'd be the perfect choice

For bringing the rural and suburban people on board with Obama. He can connect with them. He's not elitist and he doesn't have 400 dollar haircuts or a record as a trial lawyer. He was in Vietnam, a talking point McCain likes to discuss when talking about why he's the best on foreign policy. I still like Mark Warner better though. You just can't beat an 80% approval rating in a state that could change the dynamics of electoral politics.

[adoraz]

haven't heard much about Mark Warner

I'll do some research on him, thanks. :)

[underpants]

16. Webb seems like the natural choice

:hi: by the way. Richmond here.

Webb would be a great balance but I doubt that he wants to give up his nice comfy Senate seat but then he couldn't have really thought he had much of a chance to even be HERE two years ago so who knows??? The life of a US Senator is a good one though.

Schweitzer is another obvious choice because he could help in the Mountain West (the SD and MT primaries being last and the convention being in Denver are no coincidence)

Richardson would be a great choice too

I would be SHOCKED if Kaine took that.

[hokies4ever]

23. Really? 80% approval rating?

Does he go around mowing his constituents' lawns or something? :rofl:

[sandnsea]

52. No kidding

I don't like the guy myself, but if Virginia loves him that much, I'm on board.

[fujiyama]

54. He also fits in well with Obama's theme of unity

After all, Webb served as Sec. of the Navy under Reagan. He's also tough as nails and doesn't take shit from anyone. He'd rip apart any of McCain's RW stooge VP picks, whether it's Jindal, Pawlenty or whichever other hack he choses.

[nebula]

5. No conservative Dems on the ticket please

[cbc5g]

6. anti-war pro-choice and pro-gay rights isn't exactly conservative

[nebula]

19. He also wrote an article called "Women can't fight"

and voted against an Iraq Withdrawal Amendment that was co-sponsored by Senators Barbara Boxer and Barack Obama.

[Blondiegrrl]

44. That was 30 years ago, and he has since changed his mind. n/t

[Sparkly]

46. Wouldn't help him with Clinton's base much, though.

:(

[Blondiegrrl]

48. Sad but true. :-/ eom

[sandnsea]

53. And led the way for women in the Navy

That was one stupid article but it's not the entirety of the man.

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5203

[grantcart]

12. tough and strong on defense does not make him conservative

do you have any substantative issues that you think are relevant.

Personally I will give up several of those for the guy that went face to face with Bush and made bush turn and run.

[nebula]

21. He voted against an Iraq withdrawal amendment

co-sponsored by Obama and Boxer.

[bunnies]

25. He also vote *against* kyl-lieberman

On the Senate floor today, Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) made an impassioned appeal to his fellow senators, declaring that the Lieberman-Kyl amendment on Iran should be “withdrawn” because the “proposal is Dick Cheney’s fondest pipe dream.” Webb cautioned that the “cleverly-worded sense of the Congress” could be “interpreted” to “declare war” on Iran. He continued:

Those who regret their vote five years ago to authorize military action in Iraq should think hard before supporting this approach. Because, in my view, it has the same potential to do harm where many are seeking to do good.

“At best, it’s a deliberate attempt to divert attention from a failed diplomatic policy,” said Webb. “At worst, it could be read as a backdoor method of gaining Congressional validation for military action, without one hearing and without serious debate.” Watch it:

http://thinkprogress.org/2007/09/25/webb-kyl-lieb-iran/

[nebula]

31. He wants to stay in Iraq

voted NO on Iraq withdrawal amendment sponsored by Feingold, Boxer and Obama.

I do not trust Webb on foreign policy farther than I can throw him.

[cbc5g]

34. I dont know about that bill specifically but this is a quote from Webb on Iraq withdrawal

From the August 26 edition of ABC's This Week:

WEBB: In terms of the aftermath , no one in a responsible position in government is saying that we should pull the plug in Iraq and have a precipitous withdrawal. What we're trying to do is to say eventually we have to withdraw from Iraq. We have to draw down our troops. Even the military realities of the surge which have up-swung the cycles of deployment are going to mandate that we reduce our troops and eventually leave. We're not going to have stability in that region until the American troops are out of Iraq. We have to do it in a way that brings in the other countries around the region, allows us to focus on international terrorism and doesn't destabilize the region, but it must be done.

[nebula]

37. I wish Webb's rhetoric would match his voting record

he cannot be trusted.

[Douglas Carpenter]

50. Comparing the Senate voting records of Sen. Obama, Sen. Webb and Sen. McCain

At first I was a bit skeptical of him. But after taking a closer look, I have to admit being somewhat impressed.

My most important reason from my point view is that his writings while teaching at the Naval War College in Monterey, California reveal that he is a foreign policy realist and pragmatist and thus not the sort to rush into ill advised military interventions. Equally important he shares with Sen. Obama the sense of importance with opening dialog with adversaries and making a sincere effort at diplomacy in resolving conflict.

But, just how liberal is he on other issues? I would have to say, more than I thought

First, here is just one example: In 2007 The Sargent Shriver National Center on Poverty Law gave Senator Webb a grade of A+.

Here are some more along with a comparison with Sen. Obama’s and Sen. McCain’s record:

All figures are interest group ratings from 2007.:

The link for Sen. McCain's ratings on Project Vote Smart:

http://www.votesmart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=53270&type=category&category=45&go.x=10&go.y=12

The link for Sen. Obama's ratings on Project Vote Smart:

http://www.votesmart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=9490

The link for Sen. Webb’s ratings on Project Vote Smart:

http://www.votesmart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=60043

Abortion Issues

In 2007 NARAL Pro-Choice America gave Senator Obama a grade of 100.

2007 NARAL Pro-Choice America gave Senator Webb a grade of 100.

In 2007 NARAL Pro-Choice America gave Senator McCain a grade of 0.

_________________________________

Civil Rights and Human Rights Issues

2007 American Civil Liberties Union gave Senator Obama a grade of 80.

In 2007 American Civil Liberties Union gave Senator Webb a grade of 71.

2007 American Civil Liberties Union gave Senator McCain a grade of 50.
______________________________________________________________

Senator Obama supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 85 percent in 2007

Senator Webb supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 85 percent in 2007.

Senator McCain supported the interests of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights 15 percent in 2007.

_____________________________________________________________________

Conservative Issues

Senator Obama supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 7 percent in 2007.

2007 Senator Webb supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 16
percent in 2007

Senator McCain supported the interests of the American Conservative Union 80 percent in 2007.
_______________________________________________________________________

Education Issues

In 2007 National Education Association gave Senator Obama a grade of A.

In 2007 National Education Association gave Senator Webb a grade of A.

In 2007 National Education Association gave Senator McCain a grade of F.
.
________________________________________________________________________

.
_

Environmental Issues

2007 Based on a point system, with points assigned for actions in support of or in opposition to League of Conservation Voters's position, Senator Obama received a rating of 67.

2007 Based on a point system, with points assigned for actions in support of or in opposition to League of Conservation Voters's position, Senator Webb received a rating of 87.

2007 Based on a point system, with points assigned for actions in support of or in opposition to League of Conservation Voters's position, Senator McCain received a rating of 0.
______________________________________________________________

Family and Children Issues

In 2007 Based on a point system, with points assigned for actions in support of or in opposition to Children's Defense Fund's position, Senator Obama received a rating of 60.

In 2007 Based on a point system, with points assigned for actions in support of or in opposition to Children's Defense Fund's position, Senator Webb received a rating of 90.

In 2007 Based on a point system, with points assigned for actions in support of or in opposition to Children's Defense Fund's position, Senator McCain received a rating of 10.
________________________________________________________
(The Family Research Council is an extremely right-wing organization found and lead by Dr. Richard Dobson)

In 2007 Family Research Council gave Senator Obama a grade of 0.

In 2007 Family Research Council gave Senator Webb a grade of 0.

In 2007 Family Research Council gave Senator McCain a grade of 42.
_______________________________________________________________

Foreign Aid and Policy Issues

Senator Obama supported the interests of the Council for a Livable World 81 percent in 2007

Senator Webb supported the interests of the Council for a Livable World 72 percent in 2007.

Senator McCain supported the interests of the Council for a Livable World 0 percent in 2007.

______________________________________________________________________.

Health Issues

Senator Obama supported the interests of the American Academy of Family Physicians 100 percent in 2007.

Senator Webb supported the interests of the American Academy of Family Physicians 100 percent in 2007..

Senator McCain supported the interests of the American Academy of Family Physicians 0 percent in 2007
_____________________________________________________________________

Labor

Senator Obama supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 100 percent in 2007.

Senator Webb supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 100 percent in 2007.

Senator McCain supported the interests of the AFL-CIO 0 percent in 2007.
______________________________________________________________________

Senator Obama supported the interests of the Service Employees International Union 75 percent in 2007.

Senator Webb supported the interests of the Service Employees International Union 75 percent in 2007.

Senator McCain supported the interests of the Service Employees International Union 8 percent in 2007.
________________________________________________________________________

Liberal

Senator Obama supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 75 percent in 2007

Senator Webb supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 85 percent in 2007.

Senator McCain supported the interests of the Americans for Democratic Action 10 percent in 2007.
_________________________________________________________________

[bain_sidhe]

32. But calling liberals a "fifth column waging war on American traditions." does

It's not just his record on women in the military (recent stuff too, not just the old article, which was bad enough). A couple of other issues I have with him as well:

His view (in 2000) that "affirmative action is state-sponsored racism,"

In 2004, Webb wrote an op-ed for USA Today arguing that John Kerry "deserved condemnation" for his opposition to the Vietnam War

Two articles that I think explain my opposition:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/14980312/virginia_senator_james_webb_washingtons_most_unlikely_revolutionary/print

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/ixnay_on_the_ebbway.php

In short, I think he's great as a "loose cannon" senator, shaking things up. I don't think he's so great as a loose cannon vp nominee who could damage Obama.

[Leopolds Ghost]

39. So Webb is our (liberals) version of McCain, essentially?

[adoraz]

17. we NEED someone more conservative than Obama on the ticket

for the Independents.

I don't think he is that conservative, maybe moderate, but Obama is so liberal that someone needs to balance the ticket. (not that being so liberal is a bad thing, of course)

[nebula]

24. Obama is a centrist

the last thing we need is someone even more conservative.


you make Obama sound like Kucinich. he is far from being that liberal.

[adoraz]

27. you're saying Obama is moderate??

McCain is more moderate than Obama.

[nebula]

29. McSame is not a moderate

voting 95-100% of the time with Bush is not a moderate, its a neocon.

[adoraz]

33. never said he was moderate.

just said he was more moderate.

Obama is very liberal.

[nebula]

35. Obama is against gay marriage,

Obama voted in favor of the Patriot Act, voted to fund the Iraq war every year despite claiming to be against it, as well as voting in favor of the Cheney energy bill.

Are you seriously trying to compare him to Kucinich? Obama is far from liberal.

[adoraz]

36. just did a quick google, first result-

http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/

I don't agree hes the most liberal, but I think hes one of the most liberal.

[Blondiegrrl]

45. Um, no. We (liberal Democrats) might consider him a centrist, but the rest of America

considers him a far-left liberal. The Repugs are going to be running ads 24-7 spouting off about how Obama is the senator with "the most liberal voting record."

[Sparkly]

47. I disagree.

We may need someone who appeals to independents, but that doesn't mean a conservative ideology. The majority of people are on board with liberal stances on issues - - it seems to be about "image" and biography and being able to relate to someone. Webb may have some of that, but there are other (coughClarkcough) candidates who have that AND are liberal (coughClarkcough)...

[grantcart]

8. why do you say "aside from NC"?

Barr is now pulling 6% in NC and Obama is only 3% behind

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_060208.pdf
Raleigh, N.C. – Now that the Libertarian Party is on the ballot in North Carolina, Bob Barr could have a real impact on the Presidential race in the state, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

Barr receives 6% of the vote in possible match ups with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee. Obama trails John McCain 43-40, while Clinton trails him 39-34.

[adoraz]

10. I just said that because I had already listed NC

I think of all the deep south states, NC might be the most competitive. I live in NC, so I'm very excited about that. :)

I'll try to reword the OP. That was kind of confusing.

[Zenmaster]

9. Webb is my choice

I don't know if he's the best candidate to help in getting Obama elected, but Webb is who I hope becomes Obama's running mate.

[grantcart]

14. welcome to DU

[woolldog]

13. I think he will play well in rural areas of PA, NC, and MO.

As well as VA those are the states he helps with. Also he was born in MO, so there's a connection there.

[adoraz]

18. exactly, and if we do well in rural areas of NC, PA, and MO

we will win those states.

[eleny]

15. My take on Webb's influence

First, because he made some negative comments about women in the military in the past, you know the Republicans will use it to their advantage. No matter that he's changed his mind on the issue. It will be used against Obama and find fertile ground.

But there's a positive to Webb. He is of Scotts Irish heritage. He's written a book about it. These are the Borderer people who were always fighting with Britain. Think William Wallace - "Freedom!!!". They came here and populate our Appalachian region and as far as about Colorado to the west. After reading Joe Bageant's book, "Deer Hunting with Jesus", I'm convinced that Webb would have some serious clout reaching out to these people who have been a Republican voting block for some time. Bageant is also of the same heritage and explains a lot in his book abut why they vote the way they do.

I don't expect Webb to turn them on a dime to vote for Obama. In fact, I don't know if Webb would be a good choice for VP. Who would replace him in the Senate? Lawrence O'Donnell said that it would be almost impossible to replace Webb with another Dem in Virginia. But I have no doubt that he knows how to reach this voting block and will be an asset to the Dem Party and the 50 state strategy for years to come even if he isn't on the national ticket in '08.

[greenman3610]

22. what happens to Webb's senate seat if he goes vp?

[Leopolds Ghost]

40. Viginians will not vote for 3 Democratic Senators, two Dem Gov. AND a Dem President inside 4 years.

That is a bridge too far. If Webb wins VP, VA would go back to having one Dem Senator and it will be (DLC billionaire and NASCAR fan) Mark Warner. If anyone runs for Webb's seat they would probably be DLC because the Dem Party in the region is mostly Blue Dog or socially liberal DLC types. Those are the two wings of the Party in the region, in fact.

[muryan]

26. Webb has a female problem

Those articles will resurface and it'll become the "sexist ticket." I like Webb and think he would play very well in SE/NW ohio, as well as rural areas all across the country. But I am concerned about the prospect of losing 5-10% of female voters because they view the ticket as openly hostile towards them (despite it being false).

[adoraz]

30. you are correct, but I think the positives outweigh..

that negative (really the only one I can think of). plus, its a negative that is extremely old and has already been dealt with.

I understand though that the Republicans will come out and twist, but they will try to twist pretty much anything, so no VP will be safe.

[Hippo_Tron]

42. Women put Webb over the top in Virginia in 2006

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/VA/S/01/epolls.0.html

Granted it's absolutely mind boggling how George Allen won 15% of the black vote.

[muryan]

43. Thats surprising

Also, Webb only winning the 18-29 bracket by 4%.

[fujiyama]

55. Allen got 15%?

Noose in the office, spray painted the rock in his HS "kill whitey", has insulted minorities every step of the way - George Allen got 15%?

Stupidity (or insanity) sure cuts across races.

[THUNDER HANDS]

28. did Cheney help Bush win any state?

Cheney is from Wyoming, and Bush was a lock to get that state plus all the states that border it.

[ladjf]

38. Webb is a former Republican. That's too close for me.

[muryan]

49. I see another potential problem with Webb being VP

But its only applicable if Obama announces his pick before McCain does.

Lets say Obama picks Webb. The next news cycle, McCain and the RNC roll out all of Webbs baggage about women in the military, and then the following day McCain picks Sarah Palin to be his VP candidate.

That would be disastrous for Obama. Granted that Palin is very anti-choice and pretty much wrong on all the relevant issues, but Bush got 48% of the female vote last time around, anything that can tip that even higher in McCains favor is bad news

[Douglas Carpenter]

51. 30 year-old-news is not going to get a whole lot of lasting traction

And given that Sen. McCain has a VERY BIG problem with the socially conservative base of the Republican Party -- do they really want to give free to publicity to their opponents who would tend to agree with things Sen. Webb said and once believed 30 years ago?