THE MATH Daily Widget – Friday, June 6 – Wigand +1.49 – Total +2.50

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Friday, June 6 – Wigand +1.49 – Total +2.50








Great news, Missouri is now polling blue! A new Rasmussen poll dated June 3 shows Obama up by 1 point. This directly affects our indices, and since Missouri is one of our swing states, we can expect to see the Missouri markets on Intrade begin to increase for Obama. North Carolina also jumps in Intrade trading today, up 2.50 since yesterday.

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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TRACKING



^ Missouri's new poll increases the Wigand Electoral Average today by 1.49. Obama now has a 53.72% chance of winning in the General Election.



^ North Carolina trades 2.50 higher than yesterday on Intrade. It appears that yesterday's Intrade leap wasn't a spike after all!



^ My own projection of electoral votes stays flat at 299 for Obama today. Once it crosses the 300 mark, let's hope it keeps going and never looks back! EV.com's projection stays flat as well (287), and 538.com's projection drops to almost even with McCain (270.6).


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^ This map is not a prediction. It is a map of the states which are currently either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[mod mom]

1. On our way to victory!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

2. Good morning, mod mom!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

3. Off to work kick

Enjoy your day.

Good morning to fight4my3sons! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

4. Good morning phrigndumass!

Hope you have a good day at work :hi:

Way to go Missouri!

[grantcart]

5. good morning

[phrigndumass]

11. You didn't get much sleep, lol

Didn't you create a post just a few hours ago? :D

[Symarip]

6. Kicked and Recommended

I love these boring math posts.

[grantcart]

8. boring?? Ok that's it - If we have to play dirty to get these threads noticed we will play dirty

[Symarip]

12. Your rabid canine assaults are nothing compared to

Pony power. Eat it, grantcart.

[phrigndumass]

9. Ssshhhhh ... There's a secret about this ...

The boring math posts are a cover for John Nash to "view code" :D

Thanks Symarip :hi:

[grantcart]

7. I was surprised that there was so little movement on Intrade

in checking I found that Ohio had moved +3.2 points.

Just curious what kind of impact on the WEA does a movement in Ohio of 3.2 cause?

[phrigndumass]

10. Intrade will pick up in a month or two, when the battle gets heated up ...

A movement of 3.2 in Ohio changes the WEA Total by 3.2, but unless it crosses the 50.0 marker or changes in the polls, it doesn't affect the WEA Index directly.

The WEA Index is more of a percentage chance of an Obama win. Obama has a 53.72% chance of becoming our next President.

[grantcart]

13. more reading and more numbers

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008052901

This is becoming the must read for conservatives who are looking at the numbers.

[phrigndumass]

14. Thanks for sharing the link, I just added that to my favs

Gotta watch those slippery suckers. :D

[grantcart]

17. here is my thread - they have a 'electoral barometer'

Here is a link back to the original academic article that explains their math

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008052901

It confirms your work

Here is my thread on it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6304016

[phrigndumass]

18. Very interesting! I'll pop into your thread and read, thanks!

[frickaline]

15. K&R Nice work.

[phrigndumass]

16. Thanks frickaline!

:hi: