National Polls:
Zogby: Kerry 47, Bush 43, Nader 2
Gallup: Bush 48, Kerry 46, Nader 3
Pew: Kerry 47, Bush 45, Nader 2
Rasmussen (8/17): Kerry 49, Bush 46
State Polls:
MD: Kerry 53, Bush 40
CA: Kerry 54, Bush 38
NC: Bush Up 3 & 6 Pts in New Polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/The only places that Bush is holding in are states he already was ahead of Kerry in. Bush is holding strong throughout all of the South except for Florida, where Kerry holds a significant lead,averaging a six point lead in the latest Florida polls.Florida has now been placed in the Kerry column, as Kerry has been leading in this state for over a month, and his lead has been beyond the margin of error in those polls for the month. The only other Southern state where Kerry and Bush are in close competition is Arkansas, where the last polls have both Bush and Kerry polling dead equal at 46 percent each.
DC's Political Report breaks down the electoral college votes with Bush leads throughout the entire south except the two states mentioned above.
Kerry leads in 18 states currently giving him 264 electoral votes at the present time.
Bush leads in 17 states that give him 155 electoral votes at the present time.
There are 11 states too close to call that have 102 electoral votes.
10 States are strongly for Kerry, where he has led in double digits for several months.. These states give Kerry 169 electoral votes and all polls indicate that Kerry will win these 10 states with no possbility of losing any of them to Bush under any circumstance.
There are eight other states that are leaning strongly towards Kerry, where Kerry has leads that are in high single digits, and Kerry has held the lead in these eight states for over a month. There is a small chance of Kerry losing sone of these states, but this is beleived to be unlikely. Kerry gets 95 electoral votes from these states.
Bush has 14 states that are strongly in his favor, and there is no possibility of his losing these states ti Kerry. These states give Bush 123 Electoral Votes.
There are three other states leaning strongly towards Bush which give him the remainder of his electoral votes, another 32 electoral votes. Theres is a small chance of Bush losing these states to Kerry, but this too is considered unlikely.
There are 11 states too close to call which have 102 electoral votes.
Right now Kerry leads Bush in six of these states. Maine, West Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri (close, very close, by 6/10ths of a percent),giving Kerry another possible 57 electoral votes, which would bring Kerry's total to 321 electoral votes if h wins all of these too close to tell states in which he now leads.
Kerry is ahead in Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, and Nevada, giving Bush another 39 Electoral votes for a total of 194 electoral votes if he wins all of the states that are too close to tell in which he is ahead of Kerry.
One state too close to tell is Arkansas where Kerry and Bush poll equal. This state has 6 electoral votes.
If Bush takes this state, this gives him 200 Electoral votes. If Kerry takes it. Kerry is up to 327 electoral votes.
Finally, there are five states where no polling has been done which have 17 electoral votes. North Dakota, Nebraska,Wyoming, Delaware, and the District of Columbia have not done polls. North Dakota, Wyoming, and Nebraska are likely Bush territory. 11 Electoral Votes. Bringing Bush's total to 211.
Deleware and the District of Colmbia are more than likely going to go to Kerry for 6 Electoral votes.
But even if Bush were to take all of these states that have not had polls done, his total electoral vote count would be brought up to 217 compared to Kerry's current 321 in states that he currently DOES lead in.
Right now virtually all of the polling information and distribution of electoral college votes appear to make this election Kerry's to lose. The over 100 million dollars in negative campaigning that the Bush Admininistration spent up until the Democratic Convention has had virtually no effect on Kerry's pollling, except if one wants to thinkk that the public does not approve of the negative campaigning, and this has led many to swing towards Kerry.
None of the recent statements that Kerry has made which would seem to play negatively for Kerry seem to have had an adverse effect on Kerry's polling data in any of the states that Kerry has been strongly leading in, or even in those states that are leaning towards Kerry. They have had little effect at all in those states that are too close to tell in which Kerry is leading, but only by a few percentage points. In fact, oddle enough, since Kerry's statement about still supporting his vote on Iraq, Kerry's lead in Ohio has grown to 3 percentage points in polls that have MoE's of 3.5 to 4 percent. Kerry's lead in Ohio has increased slightly since his statements on his vote on the Iraq war.
To reiterate, right now it appears that this race is now Kerry's to lose, and it is going to take a major blunder on Kerry's part, or major coup on the part the Bush Administration for Bush to win in November. Kerry has significant leeway to lose a number of states too close tell right now, as well as lose all of the states for which there is no polling data to lose to Bush.
The current administrations position right now looks very desperate.
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