GOP strategist warns that Obama is within 2 pts of the white vote against McCain :)

[dkf]

In a head-to-head, Obama is beating McCain by a very narrow margin (44% to 40%). As we have said before, we believe that Obama will get a 10-point bounce once he is officially the nominee and Clinton voters “return home.” Having said that, this data is instructional as to where the strengths and weaknesses lie for each candidate:

McCain is not doing well enough among men to bridge the historical gender gap with women. The presidential voting pattern for the last 20 years suggests that the Republican candidate needs to win among men by at least 8-12 points to make up for the party’s usual gender gap with women. The so-called gender gap is not one-sided. McCain wins men by four points but loses women by 10 points. This is a problem.

In fact, the problem is so severe that McCain is losing women by 12-14 points among every age cohort except for women 65+, where he is running even with Obama.

McCain will not win Independents on his reputation alone. Obama is winning among Independents by about 8 points. Yes, McCain is favorably viewed by Independents but that is not translating into actual votes at this point in time.

Obama is cutting into historical GOP success with white voters. At this point, McCain is only winning the white vote by two points. Compare that to 2004 when Bush beat Kerry among white voters by 17 points (58% to 41%).

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/

edit title for grammar.

[WA98070]

1. He'll eventually beat him in the one demographic that matters...voters!!!!

[DerekJ]

2. Pfffttt... The M$M told me he has a "White problem"...Why should I believe you?!!

[roguevalley]

13. makes you question the woman meme too doesn't it.

[bluestateguy]

3. If Obama only loses the white vote by 2 points, then he wins easily

That translates into a 51%-49% margin for McCain with whites. Even if you give McCain 45% of the Hispanic vote, Obama will finish him off with a record black voter turnout, and I predict, 92% of their votes. Figure then that he gets about 50% of the vote from the "other" category (Asians, Arabs, Indians, Native Americans, etc.).

By my calculations, that comes to a total of almost 55% of the popular vote.

[BuyingThyme]

4. McCain is going to make Dukakis look good.

[Sherman A1]

10. Agreed

[Life Long Dem]

5. Sure does look promising.

More whites are going with Obama with McSame than with Hillary.

[calimary]

6. Cool! This gives me hope!

Thanks for posting this!

[democracy1st]

7. K & R

[FrenchieCat]

8. Independents who don't like the war will not be voting for McCunt!

That is a large portion of them.

Plus, remember...the Barr Factor will soon be factoring in.

That's why the Primaries were so tough....cause when one actually checks out McCunt for just a little while, one falls asleep. The General will not be as tough as Hillary world predicted.

[dkf]

9. The story of his first wife is particularly horrendous.

I don't see how any self-respecting feminist could ever do anything to let McCain win. Is there anything more sexist than dumping your injured, slightly overweight and older wife for a new racy rich model? I don't think so.

[AtomicKitten]

11. The Democrats are going to dismember McCain.

[yy4me]

12. I'd bet my last dime that the percentage will he huge once

the Obama-McCain debates begin. John will have to fight to stay awake. I'm sure Obama will leave him in the dust. Old, tired and angry.