Put On A Happy Face-Zogby Has A Little Present For Us!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

www.pollingreport.com



click on White House Trial Heats....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Armchair Strategists-Take That! (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I Can't Wait Till November When The Signs Tell Bush To Get Out Of Kerry's

house....

[sampsonblk]

38. Oh, this proves that Kerry's strategy is good?

Sorry, not impressed.

We all want him to win. But this isn't going to make any of us stop complaining about this weak campaign.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Maybe He Can Fire Mary Beth Cahill And Hire You (nt)

[mzmolly]

3. Here is the link.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

[madmax]

4. Is this true?

Someone told me Zogby has predicated the Presidential winner for the last 20 years? He predicted Gore in 2000.

[David Dunham]

7. Zogby has been the most accurate poll. Gallup stinks, bad methodology

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Don't Like Gallup.....

They are an outlier.....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Zogby Predicted Gore In 00.... He Had A Close Race ....

Zogby kicked Gallup's ass in 2000...

[joeybee12]

14. And he was right in 2000! Gore DID win! It makes me nuts when Dems say

to get over this. Unless we realizwe that Dumbo stole the election, and understand that they'll do it again, we're gonna get blindsided!

[Sporadicus]

19. I Will NEVER 'Get Over It' n/t

[Spiffarino]

39. Well...ummm...mmmm...

Nope! Not over it!

[Catt03]

5. Why are CNN and Gallup different?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The Statisticians At Gallup Are Former Meth Addicts (nt)

[Catt03]

12. Thanks

That explains it.....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Seriously...

Gallup "overweights" Republicans... His models assumes Republicans will be a larger percentage of the vote than they actually will be....


For instance if my model is based on Republicans casting 35% of the vote for pres and they cast 32% of the votes that difference is huge in a close election...


Polling is part science, part art art, and part hucksterism....

[Got WMD]

6. Me likey!!!

50-43 Kerry and a 47% approval for Bush. Sounds good to me!!!

Didn't Gallup's final 2000 poll have Bush up 13? Also, I thought Zogby was pretty accurate in his final 2000 poll. Does anyone have more info on this?

[DeminDC]

20. This is an Opportunity, Not a Reason to Celebrate

Long time lurker here who has just started to post in earnest. I like DU and the exchange of ideas.

I work for a Congressional campaign and love being involved with campaigns. When I return to school in a few weeks, I may become involved with Kerry-Edwards more.

However, the reason for my post is that we should not celebrate these polls other than to use them as a symbol of strength. I expect Kerry's folks to release them in news outlets so that the pressure is on Bush to give an excellent speech at his convention to get back in the race instead of having an expectation that Bush just needs to perform adequately. So, these polls are a wake-up call to Kerry's spin machine to get to work playing up Kerry's strength in the polls.

What is more important is that these polls indicate that Kerry is reaching a personal best in the polls against Bush, which is why Bush's folks have begun to go negative in order to erode support for Kerry because they are in a spot where they cannot persuade folks to become Bush voters. Kerry's folks can sit around and wish it were Nov. 2 right now, but it isn't. So, there needs to be a strategy to win and to increase the lead.

Most important is to come up with a message and stick to it. It should incorporate Kerry's life and vision for the future rather than be a summary of his ideas. Second, there needs to be a unified message about Bush which can serve as a lens through which the media covers events and be believable enough so that it persuades people on the ground. What are the adjectives that describe Bush that will be compelling? Maybe Kerry's camp wants to hammer him on hypocrisy and say one thing and do another issues. Well... Hell! Have the DNC run an ad in which he talks about a national sales tax then talks about how cutting taxes is essential. Have an ad in which Cheney says no war has been won by being sensitive, then he advocates sensitivity. Whatever you choose to do, make it believable, strong and persuasive.

Anyway, kudos to Kerry's folks because they've earned this position in the polls, but much important work is left to do over the coming days.

[KharmaTrain]

26. Thank-You...Well Said

And sadly sinking among the other posts. A poll is a snapshot of what was, not what is.

Cheers!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. But Many On The Board Were Crapping Themselves After The Flawed Gallup

Poll....


I was trying to give the antidote.....

[KharmaTrain]

29. Many Great Points Go Unheeded Here

Emotions run deep, I reckon.

Your post nailed some great points. Hopefully the braintrusts that do scan here did take notice. Hope your candidate does, too.

Cheers!

[JohnnyRingo]

11. Kerry by seven points...I think it's the result of new registrants

I don't think the repubs are having an easy time recruiting young new voters. "Vote for Buxh and see the world". LOL

The Fox opinion/dynamic poll, which shows Kerry by five, must be embarassing to Roger Ailles and co.

[DemWitch]

13. Nice numbers

the ONLY thing Shrubya leads on in every poll is the War on Terra...

Kerry is up in almost every other category on almost every poll. What I find interesting too is the polling on Congress. Every poll except Gallup/CNN, which is tied, show a majority want Congress to go Democrat.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. You Nailed It...

The reason Bush is leading in the Gallup Poll and the Dems and Reps are tied in the Congresional ballot is because Gallup "overweights" Republicans.....


That's why they failed to predict the Gore surge in the waning days of the 2000 election...

[napi21]

15. It's still very early to believe in polls, but actions speak louder

Shrub just brought Keren Hughes back from Tx. If they were fairly confident, I doubt they would have done that.

It's interesting that by far the mojority of polls show Kerry with the lead. If it's only 1 or 2, it's probably a biased poll, but when the mojority agree on one thing, it's probably at least the feelings today.

I am a firm believer in the statement that "a week is an eternity in polotics" which is why I say it's too early to feel confidence.

Lets see what happens in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Plame investigation, oil prices, the job market, and yes, even the stock market. It still looks like all of those put more chips in the Kerry column, but keep your eyes open and wait.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. I'm Not Overconfident...

The election is still relatively far away....


But it is a nice antidote to the doom and gloomers...

[napi21]

30. Of course, and I am smiling today! I just don't want anyone to

feel too happy, and slack off the pressusre. It's easy to do, and we could loose that way.

Believe it or not, I am happy when there's differences in polls. It keeps people on their toes and fighting.

[Capn Sunshine]

17. Hard work in the trenches is paying off, people

Don't let up!

In fact, get offline, pick up a phone, and CALL your local Dem Party office and see what help they need!

[unfrigginreal]

21. It's a great sign that the men finally favor Kerry over Bush in Zogby

the women have always been too smart to back the chimp.

[MallRat]

22. But CNN keeps telling me that Kerry had no bounce!

Zogby and all the other polls must be wrong.

:eyes:

-MR

[peacetalksforall]

24. More important than watching polls...

is the black box voting predicament.

[MoonRiver]

25. The 7 point advantage continues!!

I predict it will be 15 by November 2nd!

[wellstone dem]

27. And most importantly

the poll proves that women ARE smarter than men.

[Rowdyboy]

31. You mean there was a question?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. kick

[wellstone dem]

43. Well,

I have a brother that periodically needs convincing.

[pa28]

33. If Kerry ties or wins the male vote it could be a landslide n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. I Don't Remember The Last Dem To Get A Majority Of The Male Vote...

LBJ was the last Dem to get a majority of the white vote...


I don't remember if Clinton get pluralities of either votes...


Maybe another Duer can do the research...

[Can o Beans]

45. The Clinton re-election got

just under 48% of the male vote, if I recall correctly. I cannot conceive of anyone else getting close to that.

[ButterflyBlood]

35. is this a real poll or one of those interactive ones?

I don't have much faith in the latter.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. It's A Real Poll...

I'm not a big fan of the interactive ones either....

[Tarheelhombre]

37. GOOD News Bump

[Spiffarino]

40. Happy kick!

:kick:

[Raiden]

41. Great News! n/t

[Tarheelhombre]

42. 78 Days til Election Day