5/28 Simple Math: Obama needs 6 Super Delegates to win the nomination on June 3

[tiptoe]

What Obama needs to Clinch: The Simple MATH
TruthIsAll    http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.doc

To clinch by June 3, Obama needs a little over 1 Super Delegate per day.
He has averaged 3 SDs/day over the last 3 weeks.

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1660.5-1499.5 in pledged delegates.

On Feb. 20, Clinton led by 81 super delegates (246-165).
Obama now leads by 318.5-280.5
He will very likely win the nomination, once he reaches 325 SDs.

If Obama wins 48% of the votes in the remaining primaries, he will gain approximately 41 unpledged delegates.*
He would then need just 6 of 198 (3%) uncommitted super delegates to reach the 2026 required for the nomination.

Obama has:

1660.5 Pledged Delegates
+318.5 Super Delegates
-----
1979.0 Current Delegates
+ 41.0 Projected Pledged  (@ 48% of votes in remaining primaries*)
-----
2020.0 Total Projected
+  6.0 Uncommitted Super Delegates
-----
2026 Clinches Nomination

Alternative Calculation:

1660.5 Pledged Delegates
+ 41.0 Projected Pledged  (@ 48% of votes in remaining primaries*)
-----
1701.5 Total Pledged
+318.5 Current Super
-----
2020.0 Total Projected
+  6.0 Uncommitted Super Delegates
-----
2026 Clinches Nomination

*Projected Vote Shares
 Remaining Primaries
           Obama %	 Pledged
	   Projected	 Delegates
 PR        44            24
 MT        56             9
 SD        56             8
 Total     47.7          41

 Note: The calculations above assume FL and MI delegates are not included. 

[Scooter24]

1. It's difficult to predict anything until after the 31st...

Whatever the Rules Committee decides is going to have a major impact in the delegate math, and with June 1st being the Puerto Rico primary, it's going to be a busy news day.

[oldpol]

2. thanks for the updates numbers

O should pass the barrier this week

[tiptoe]

12. kick

[tiptoe]

4. And, as one headline puts it: "Democratic Showdown On Saturday Could Get Ugly"

http://www.chron.com/commons/persona.html?newspaperUserId=desperado&plckController=PersonaBlog&plckScript=personaScript&plckElementId=personaDest&plckPersonaPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3adesperadoPost%3ae51cfaf4-6d4e-46a7-8fd8-aa6781518d12&plckCommentSortOrder=TimeStampAscending
DU comments:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=6156017

[LWolf]

3. The simple reality:

He doesn't get ANY super delegates until the convention. They don't vote until then.

[tiptoe]

5. That'll give time for the former-

Hillary-SDs who switched to Obama to switch back to Hillary.

[LWolf]

7. The super delegates can switch every day between now and the convention.

There is plenty of time, and no obligation on their part NOT to change their minds. I don't think super delegate votes can be used to declare a winner until they are cast.

They can certainly be used to predict a winner, but not to call the race "done."

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Honeycombe8]

6. 2,026 isn't going to be the final #, after Saturday. But it goes a long way...

to pushing him over the hill and getting him the remainder that he will need.

I think it's likely they'll seat half of the delegates in MI & FL...don't you?

[tiptoe]

9. Don't know. Maybe Florida...

but Obama wasn't even on the Michigan ballot.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=6168486

Here's a suggestion:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6168486&mesg_id=6168640

9. Seat 50% super delegates from FL and MI. Seat FL pledged delegates 50% by vote, and 50% according

to the allocation of pledged delegates from the other 48 states. Seat MI pledged delegates 50% by Levin's proposed ratio, 50% according to the allocation of pledged delegates from the other 48 states.

This has the advantage of (1) seating full pledged delegations from FL and MI and nearly full total delegations from FL and MI, (2) punishing FL and MI by costing them 50% of super delegates (i.e., diminishing the effect of those party insider types who had more responsibility for the rule violation) and by diminishing their pledged delegates' say in the ultimate vote without affecting the total strength of the FL or MI pledged delegate coalitions, and (3) minimizing the effect of the rules violation while also minimizing the effect of the punishment for the rules violation.

[Bensthename]

10. After MI/FL Obama will be closer to the number thanks to Hillary.

[tiptoe]

11. would certainly seem that way. nt