Obama's Path to Victory in November

[AZBlue]

Let's just put this lie to rest right now: not only is Obama electable, he will most likely win by a good margin. He will be President.


Obama's Path to Victory in November
by Robert Creamer
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/obamas-path-to-victory-in_b_103880.html

With Obama inching ever closer to clinching the Democratic nomination, some of his opponents have resorted to a campaign aimed at convincing superdelegates that, no matter how much they like him, "Obama just can't win."

In fact, the odds are good that Obama will win the Presidency. And if Democrats execute with precision during the campaign, the odds are good that he will win with a healthy margin. Here's why:

• If the election were held today - before the campaign begins - polling shows that he would have very high odds of winning states with 273 electoral votes, more than the 270 needed to win election. More importantly, he would win this victory without needing the states of Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virginia or Florida.
  
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• The more people get to know Obama, the more likely it is that he will get their support. But the more they know about McCain, the less likely they are to vote his way.
  
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• Obama's campaign will change the electorate. It will massively increase turnout among minorities and young people. Based on past history, Ohio has even odds of going for Obama. What happens if there is a huge spike in turnout among African Americans and young people? Obama takes Ohio by a respectable margin. The fact is that there is no plausible scenario where McCain wins in November that does not involve Ohio.
  
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• In this political environment, Obama's persona and message will resonate with swing voters. Eighty percent of the voters think that America is on the wrong track. Obama is change. McCain is the past.
  
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• Finally, Obama's ability to inspire is a massive general election asset. Not only will it motivate his base, it will also attract independents and Republicans in record numbers. The reason is simple: when someone is inspired they feel empowered. People of all sorts want to be empowered; they want to have meaning in their lives. They want to be part of something big and important and historic.

Creamer hits the nail on the head with his last point - Obama does give us empowerment and that's what democracy is all about. He's said before that he can't do this all on his own - no President can. It's up to us and he's going to give us that chance. What more could you want in a President?

Further discussion in this article is very interesting (link above) including a look at fivethirtyeight.com.

[FrenchieCat]

1. I add to this.....

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_frenchie_080517_how_in_the_general_e.htm

[AZBlue]

4. Nicely said!!

Thank you for the link - I'm printing!

[Coexist]

10. nice

[AtomicKitten]

2. K&R -- There it is!!

K&R

Can you hear the sound of the Clinton campaign hitting a brick wall?

[AZBlue]

6. Very appropriate artwork.

The wall's even painted in shades of blue!
:hi:

[FSogol]

3. K&R. "Obama is change. McCain is the past." n/t

[paulk]

5. this reads like wishful thinking more than campaign strategy

The more people get to know Obama, the more likely it is that he will get their support-

What's this based on? Since Ohio, Obama has been losing more than winning. If what Creamer says is true, Obama should be pulling away in this race. As it is, he's staggering over the finish line.


Finally, Obama's ability to inspire is a massive general election asset. Not only will it motivate his base, it will also attract independents and Republicans in record numbers.

This is more wishful thinking. Obama has inspired half of the Democrats who voted in the primaries. There is nothing that says what inspires those people is going to somehow inspire independents and Republicans.

[FrenchieCat]

7. It's based on past performance, silly.

[GoesTo11]

8. Obama fights McCain + Hillary to a draw

If Hillary stops campaigning for McCain, Obama will pull ahead of him.
If Hlllary decides to campaign for the Democratic nominee - like other non-winning candidates always do, then Obama will win easily.

[JPZenger]

9. k and r nt