Hillary given 100% probability of beating McCain

[Tellurian]

May 26 2008

Clinton

100.0% probability of winning
Mean of 322 electoral votes

McCain

0.0% probability of winning
Mean of 216 electoral votes



http://hominidviews.com/?page_id=1160

Obama

50.1% probability of winning
Mean of 268 electoral votes

McCain

49.3% probability of winning
Mean of 270 electoral votes



http://hominidviews.com/

...Obama continues to be, as President Clinton predicted, a "Roll of the Dice"! ...No Thanks!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. 0%.

You can't win if you're not the nominee.

[WeDidIt]

3. Bingo!

[Tellurian]

11. Except if the Dem Party picks the RIGHT candidate..

It would be remiss of the DNC picking a candidate that CAN'T win..doncha think?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

81. correct. she is as close to a neocon that any democrat can be, but for

Joe Liebs.

[MonkeyFunk]

140. And since she's about identical

on the issues with Obama, what does that make him?

[RiverStone]

156. Against the IWR and against Kyle/Lieberman

She was not.

[patrice]

174. Also against Torture and Cluster Bombs amongst Civilians and she was not. See link below.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6152448&mesg_id=6152640

[patrice]

170. That makes him the one who CHOSE to represent Us on the one issue that they differ on the IWR vote.

He could have kept his mouth shut and been just as attractive to her very powerful supporters as she is. Instead he chose to speak out against how the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq was shoved down our throats, thus volunteering to represent all of those who do not feel represented by politicians in both parties who throw people under "the bus" for their own politcal ambitions.

[democracy1st]

223. dayum you guys whipped that fools ass

[MonkeyFunk]

224. LOL

No, they didn't. His votes on Iraq are identical to Clinton's. He didn't vote on Kyl-Lieberman.

They see what they want to see, not what's real.

[Fovea]

116. Yes

But their chances of picking Lieberman have to be virtually nil.

[Tellurian]

144. how much longer for Obama's mentoring program w/Lieberman?

Has Joe taught him "ALL" his tricks?

[mckeown1128]

178. Lieberman mentoring Obama...

you mean...the Senator who showed him around the Capital building and senate offices. And helped him with learning the senate procedures?


You act like Lieberman helped shape Obama's policies...

Tell, your such a joke around here it isn't even funny. Go to that unmentionable site if your going to use republican tactics to smear the Democratic nominee. Try not lying for once.

[NorthCarolina]

118. Everything looks as though the Dems are proceeding to pick the RIGHT candidate

for the Dems. The Republicans are just going to have to face the fact that they will not have the luxury of running against Hillary, and are likely to be put out to pasture for a while....a long while at that.

They can come here and post all the nonsensical Hillary is ahead...Hillary will win...propaganda they want, but it wont change the picture for them. McCain will simply have to run against Obama, and the Republican Party will have to deal with substantial losses as a result of the huge coattails Obama will likely have.

It might be better to change efforts from desperately trying to push Hillary on Dems (which isn't going to work), and get down to the business of figuring out how to best position your candidate against Obama in the GE in an effort to minimize losses in Congress.

[marshall]

121. Got a time machine?

That's what Hillary will need if she expects the party to pick her.

[Moochy]

130. Ah The Coveted Time Traveller Demographic!!!

When did the Gallifreyans got the right to vote?

Time Lords 4 Hillary!

[Tellurian]

146. Time tested Monte Carlo odds predict Hillary the winner..Obama..????

[Moochy]

196. You Anti-Gallifreyan Bigot!!!11111

What do you have against aliens with two hearts and a curious british accent?

[scheming daemons]

205. You are correct. She is the RIGHT candidate. But we want the LEFT candidate.

[JoFerret]

236. But there is a ready made excuse

if he doesn't: It's all Hillary's fault.

Do they actually want to win? Do they believe they can?

I do. But it is not going to be easy.

[bridgit]

91. Neither are you a 'shoe in' if in the event you are...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

122. Agreed.

It's all guesswork at this point. There will be many interceding events. Namely the GE campaign. :wow:

The primaries certainly didn't go as many anticipated, nor will the GE.

[BlooInBloo]

135. Instant pwnage.

[ecdab]

213. I want to know how part of the Hillaryis44 crowd can show their face here.

Heck - I don't even know how somebody can display their loyalty to that distorted right wing propaganda site anywhere.

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Deep13]

10. Guilt by association?

Actually, I have never heard of that site.

[Tellurian]

12. Theres nothing holy about censorship...

grow up!

[Name removed]

26. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Doityourself]

68. Yep. They even call Dems scumbags on that site..specifically Kennedy

[MethuenProgressive]

75. "Dems are called scumbags" there? Kinda like Democratic Underground?

"scumbags" would be an improvement over some of the insults hurled by Obama followers.

[The Doctor.]

80. Links please.

You really believe your own bullshit don't you?

[MethuenProgressive]

93. Here you go:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=greatest_threads

[Name removed]

97. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Doityourself]

106. No, here you go..

May 22nd, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I know that Ted Kennedy is sick, but why is he asking Obama to speak at Wellsley because he is too sick to do it. Wellsley is Hillary alma mater. Ted needs to concentrate on his illness and getting well and stay out of politics! I get from S. Smith on Fox, that Kennedy is handing his place over to Obama!

May 22nd, 2008 at 3:57 pm

Sorry, to say this, but he is a backstabber. If waffles has any scruples, which we know, he does not, he’ll decline. This is another slap to Hillary.

May 22nd, 2008 at 4:06 pm

Ted Kennedy is a man that cares not for anything that women have to offer. He has shown his chavinist ways his whole life. He uses women! I also think he wants to strip the Clintons of their power and in doing so he will tear the DNC all the way down to nothing. He only cares about his legacy and now we know what that will be Ted. You will be responsible for the demise of the democratic pary!!

May 22nd, 2008 at 4:36 pm

Ted’s lost his mind and I think now that America knows he has a brain tumor they realize that his endorsement of Waffles is nothing but his cancer talking. His endorsement didn’t do jack for Obama anyway .. most people I talk with know Kennedy is dirty as they come and the first thing out of their mouth is remembering he was responsible for leaving a woman to die.

May 22nd, 2008 at 4:55 pm

On a side note, scumbag Kennedy wants his Senate seat given to his wife after he dies…


Btw, why hang around where you're unhappy? Because it is evident, you are very unhappy here.

[MethuenProgressive]

117. 5 posts? That site has only 5 posts? And it took you ten minutes to read them?

O.K. - the site with 5 posts is wicked and awful and yucky and stuff.
Obama still lied about owing his entire existence to Jack Kennedy.

[Doityourself]

124. There are tons more as I'm sure you are quite familar and cozy with...

Hillary lied about surviving rapid and continuous sniper fire, with her child, a comedian and a singer in tow! Now that's special.

She owes her entire existence to being able to the snake and worm around flying bullets..she's one talented mama..

[uberllama42]

165. BTW, Obama spoke at Wesleyan, not Wellesley n/t

[Doityourself]

101. ...

[Name removed]

85. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JoFerret]

226. That happens routinely on this board too.

Disgraceful though it is.

[Moochy]

109. Perhaps not holy, but to censor your nasty voice here would be a blessing

[Doityourself]

127. Hold on..if things continue down this road..t's coming...and rather quickly

[Tellurian]

148. Is it my vibrato?

I'm working on fixing it.

[SwampG8r]

167. no one here wants to know about your vibrator!!

[Tellurian]

200. the dictionary is your friend!

[SwampG8r]

215. huh?oh......

never mind

[billyoc]

191. It might have something to do with that bug ugly BigPinkStain in your sig.

Either that, or everything you say.

[JoFerret]

214. What's nasty about it?

.

[JoFerret]

227. The voice is nasty because....?

.

[Freddie Stubbs]

19. The Secret Service contacts lots of websites about things anonymousy posted. Even this one:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=2497470&mesg_id=2497470

[shadowknows69]

31. I know that but the site in question is openly advocating hurting our party in the GE now

That is anathema to DU's rules and purpose.

[MethuenProgressive]

53. You're condeming an entire site becuase of a few posts? Have you seen DU's greatest page??

Careful you fall off that high horse...

[The Doctor.]

82. Yet you condemn Obama supporters for much less. Hypocrite much?

One or two rude posts (that might even be justified) and suddenly the whole of Obamanation are rude bastids?

Go climb a tree.

[Kittycat]

84. Far more than a few.

And no... I tend to stick with latest threads vs. greatest. Not sure why - creature of habit I guess.

[Buzz Clik]

87. Rhetorical question, right?

I pounded the alert button on a thread and requested it be locked because it was a verbatim quote of published GOP talking points. I pointed out the same fact on the thread. The author of the thread told me to "fuck off", and the mods deleted my comment for my trouble.

Dude, for all the pissing and moaning that this is an Obama campaign site, there is no indication whatsoever that the Hillary supporters are being restrained in any manner, even when it comes to clear violation of forum rules.

[Yael]

4. She lost though.

You have to win the nomination before you can run in the general.

[Deep13]

13. Which means we have lost.

That rule you pointed out is what kills us every time. D.s need to get one idea in their heads. An election is not about ideas, personality, hope or change. It is about marketing.

[Tellurian]

18. Picking the "strongest" candidate to run against is part of the criteria of the DNC

[Barack_America]

23. Excellent. So Gore will be running, whether he likes it or not? nt

[Tellurian]

152. Not after everyone sees the movie "RECOUNT"

mistake, after mistake, after mistake..

when you consider Holy Joe your VP and adviser, you're in over your head!

[Doityourself]

70. We will win or we will lose with Obama..Hillary is not in the equation. Her run is over.

[MNDemNY]

142. Oh, goodie! the "High Horse" to defeat.

Fabulous!

[Deep13]

Need two out of Ohio, PA and FL.

While I would not go so far as to say "100%" I do think she has a much better shot than Obama. I really can't see O. carrying Ohio.

[VolcanoJen]

42. Have you seen this, Deep13?

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/05/23/ohio-vp-matchups

[RaleighNCDUer]

99. You don't get it. The old parameters are meaningless.

Why is Ohio important? Because in 04 it was important. Why is Florida important? Because in 00 it was important. Pennsylvania has already been designated the "important" contest this time around by the press.

But Obama's campaign is not predicated on the DLC model of "important" "big" states, where losing a single state can destroy an entire campaign.

This is a whole new ground game.

[Tellurian]

5. These results after 10,000 simulated elections..

Interesting that mainstream media is mum on Obama's (faux) chances of becoming the next president..

[Alcibiades]

47. Not impressed

You can run a simulation as many times as you want, but if you use bad data, it's GIGO.

[Tellurian]

57. I agree, can you point out where there is bad data..

it would be most helpful.

[onenote]

79. OK: please tell me everything that happens between now and November

Here is some unknowns in your data:

Vice Presidential selection -- who is it? does it turn into an "Eagleton" situation?
Debates: how do the candidates do? Does someone suggest Poland isn't occupied or seem to react impersonally to a question about their daughter being assaulted?
The world in general? What is the price of gas in November? What is going in the world to make it more or less stable?

The "data" on which these surveys could not be more complete.
A survey like the one you rely on probably would've produced a definitive result that Rudy Giuliani would be the repub nominee if it had been held a year ago. But shit happens.

And shit will happen in this election. And since you don't know what sort of shit is going to happen the only thing you can be 100 percent certain about at this point is that its 100 percent certain that you don't know what's going to happen.

[Tellurian]

155. Get over yourself. People vote for the Top of the ticket!

[onenote]

198. A good choice may not add a lot of votes, A bad choice can be very costly.

For example, if McCain chooses Huckabee, he may strengthen his case to fundies. Will he add a lot of votes? Hard to say. The question will be how many will he lose. If my Jewish family is any indication (and its always risky to generalize from personal experience), they have their doubts about Obama and would prefer Hillary. SOme of the older members of my family have even suggested that they'd be more comfortable with McCain. But they've made it clear that they will run to Obama if the alternative is putting Huckabee a heartbeat away from the presidency.

Chances are both candidates will play it safe. But shit happens.

And the Vice Presidency is only one of the infinite number of things you and I and everyone else doesn't know will happen in the next five months.

If you still don't believe me, go back and take a look at some polls for the Democratic nomination from five months ago. Here, this will help:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#chart
Run your cursor along the timeline and see how much has changed in five months.

[Mike L]

100. Thanks for the confirmation. Superdelegates must save this election for the Democrats. em

[Goblinmonger]

115. Wow

you have to keep up with the talking points, young padawan. Currently Hillary is talking about how EVERY vote must be COUNTED, not how they need to be ignored by the Superdelegates.

Sheesh, read your memos.

[harun]

126. It is impossible to predict this type of thing with any accuracy

[The Doctor.]

90. I can't wait to repost these exchanges every time you try to make a ridiculous prediction again.

So many people are just shooting their credibility to hell. The first clue might be that people are getting their anti-Obama messages from Powerline, CNSnews, Newsmax, and Littlegreenfootballs.

Now this?

[Tellurian]

157. Monte Carlo simulations are used by Financial Markets.. Get with the program..

their simulations have been in use since the 90's..shheesh..

you are aware the world was proven round, long ago!

[The Doctor.]

177. Uhhh... those projections are for 'today'. The date on this post isn't November.

...even if they were accurate, they're not prescient.

[Buzz Clik]

183. Monte Carlo simulations have been used in every branch of science for decades.

There's nothing special or magic about the simulations. They can be fixed, and they clearly were in this case.

[billyoc]

192. Do you have a sub-prime mortgage? I hear they're all the rage in the Financial Markets.

:eyes:

[RaleighNCDUer]

103. 10,000 simulated elections.

What does that mean, exactly?

What were the parameters of the elections? What were the data fed into the simulations? Do you have ANY idea at all?

Or are you just repeating bullshit?

[billyoc]

193. It's like 10,000 machine recounts where they just re-check the computer totals.

:rofl:

[Moochy]

129. I ran a simulation of hillary's chance of success

But then my xbox 360 just crashed, and I can't play GTA IV anymore!

[billyoc]

194. My SHOEbox360 knows Hillary has a 0% chance of winning.

:rofl:

[Buzz Clik]

182. The old Monte Carlo approach. It was clearly fudged.

If you supply uncertainties that are too small, then it is quite possible to eliminate outcomes you don't want.

For example, if we show Hillary winning West Virginia by 30 points with a margin of error of 3 points, one would think that it is virtually impossible for her to lose WV. This is true only if you don't allow the simulations to pick the highly improbable -- but possible -- outcomes.

If they ran 10,000 simulations and McCain never won, then they fudged it. Period.

[HooptieWagon]

229. It takes 10K simulated elections to get a HRC win?

...that figures.

I wonder how that factors in to that Obama leads her in the polls by 10%, and he has double the national poll lead over mcC than she does... despite taking hits from both her and McC, while she's been ignored by both Obama and McC since she's no longer relevent.

[NC_Nurse]

6. Meh. It's all conjecture at this point. She won't be the nominee, so it's moot.

[MethuenProgressive]

7. More facts?!? ObamaNation don't want no stinkin' FACTS!

Of course Senator Clinton would trounce McCain in the fall.
Obama? Not so much.

[Kittycat]

21. The OP didn't post facts. The facts are that Obama nearly has the nomination

wrapped up, and Clinton's last hope just sailed on her for Obamaland.

And Clinton hasn't even been vetted. If she were to get the nomination. the RW news media that she has been buddying up with will flip on her so quick, her head will spin.

[dionysus]

30. only in your world is that bullshit conjecture a "fact"...

:rofl:

[Hugabear]

36. If you honestly think the OP is posting a fact, then you're beyond hope

Can't tell the difference between fact and opinion?

[Tellurian]

63. Opinion in writing backed by facts, has a bit more weight than opinion

on an anonymous message board without supporting reviewable facts..

[Hugabear]

Facts? What facts?

Hillary has a 100% probability of beating McCain?

Please don't tell me that you really think that! 100% probability? You call that a FACT?

No wonder you cling to a candidate that has practically ZERO chance of winning her own party's nomination!

[RaleighNCDUer]

105. What reviewable facts?

Have YOU reviewed each of the 10,000 simulated elections? Can you tell us what the parameters of those simulations were? How each differed from the others? When they were run?

Have YOU got any facts?

[Moochy]

108. Speaking of anonymous.. who owns your crappy website? RXNICE.com?

[NYCGirl]

102. Here's a fact. Clinton couldn't win the primary. NT

[WeDidIt]

8. That's some pretty fucked up logic right there

Man, that's really twisting and turning and only accpeting the best polls for one candidate while only accepting the worst polls for the other.

I haven't seen such a pretzel twist of logic since Bush pushed for war with Iraq!

[jefferson_dem]

9. What's she gonna beat him at?

A paint by numbers picture of a USA map?

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

17. Bowling

Unless, of course, he was sand-bagging.

:rofl:

Maybe he can practice. I heard there's a secret bowling lane in the White House.
:hi:

[VolcanoJen]

40. About that bowling alley in the White House...

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/barack-obama-al.html">Barack Obama already's got White House remodeling plans: the bowling alley is gone

"I have sworn that we're taking out the bowling alley in the White House and we're putting in a basketball court," he said, according to a pool press report of his visit this afternoon to the Indiana Basketball Hall of Fame in New Castle, Ind., today.

:-)

[undeterred]

27. Victimhood.

And he's been a POW, so its really a challenge.

[VolcanoJen]

44. Zing!

Nice one, undeterred. :patriot:

[rodeodance]

143. Obama is made out to be the victim each time you all call him the nominee

[Kittycat]

14. Shame she couldn't win the first and most necessary step in the process...

Her own Party's nomination.

[Deep13]

25. Let me put it this way: ...

McGovern, Carter ('80), Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry all won the party nomination. (Yes, yes, '00 and '04 were rigged. They still didn't get into the WH.)

We need a serious change in how we pick nominees. It has to be geared at winning and not making the party left wing happy.

[Kittycat]

38. Not geared at making the party 'left wing' happy? We're Democrats - Democrats Vote on the Dem nomin

That's how it works. And Clinton has had it easy. The second the RW press starts really vetting her, she's toast. Obama was kind in not bringing up her and bill's shady business dealings - like the one Bill is going to court for, and the one she is going to court for in November.

[Alcibiades]

41. Yes, because we all know that appealing to your base

does not work. Oh, wait, that's what the Republicans have been doing in every presidential election in the past 30 years, and it's worked like a charm for them.

The people some folks would label "the left wing of the party" are the very people the party needs to win elections. They knock on doors, make phone calls, and donate money. If you want a party that's not dominated by liberals, then make that a reality by getting moderates fired up for your preferred policies. Get them to go out and knock on doors for the Democratic Party and I'll be happy to stay at home. I have other things to do.

[RaleighNCDUer]

62. You REALLY think the left wing was happy with ANY of those

candidates?

Do you even know what the left wing is?

Every one of those is a moderate centrist - as compared to the Clintons who are right centrists. And the ONLY reason Clinton won was because Perot split the republican/independent/libertarian votes.

[patrice]

179. If you think the "Left wing" of the Democratic party are the only ones who are MAD about the IWR,

you ARE a Right Wing extremist.

[Hippo_Tron]

185. I don't think the party left wing was happy with almost any of those nominees

Yes, the left preferred McGovern over Muskie. That was also an election that Nixon would've won no matter who the nominee was.

In 1980 the left preferred Ted Kennedy. In 1984 Gary Hart. In 1988 Jesse Jackson. In 2000 Bill Bradley. In 2004 Howard Dean.

So basically, "the party left wing" hasn't chosen a nominee since McGovern. The establishment has done a fine job of picking losers for us.

[graycem]

187. Ahem..

if "they" were trying to make the left wing happy, they would've given us Kucinich or perhaps Edwards. There are very few differences between Obama and Hillary, style and approach are the biggest difference. You really can't be serious.

Aside from that, even if it were true which it clearly isn't, wouldn't it be a good idea to "pander" to your actual base instead of trying to lure in "Reagan Democrats" who never end up voting Democratic. At least the "party left wing" actually votes for the party. That is why Dems lose, because they don't fight hard enough for the ideas of its base. Many of those ideas, like universal healthcare, are more mainstream than the Republicans lead you to believe.

[Spirochete]

197. So we should do it differently this time

and run the LOSER of the primary?

Hmmm. I guess they wouldn't be expecting that, after all...

[stahbrett]

15. Bill Clinton was in 3rd place in the polls in June of 1992

Behind 1st place candidate Ross Perot and 2nd place candidate (and incumbent) George H. W. Bush.

[WeDidIt]

28. Yeppers. May numbers mean so much

especially since they are all over the place right now.

[MethuenProgressive]

60. "June"?? You said "June"!! Watch the Obama followers accuse you of being pro-assassination now...

It's how they roll.

[Overseas]

151. So unfair -- it was a whole week after The Huckabee joked about assasination at the NRA mtg

Those Barack supporters are just so unfair. Just because The Huckster had joked about Barack dodging bullets at an NRA convention a week earlier. Those people were just hypersensitive.

[Jersey Devil]

16. It's even better than 100% if

she runs for Empress of Kentucky.

[MannyGoldstein]

20. Hey Cujo! Long Time No Read!

Let's pretend this is 6 months ago. What are the odds of Obama beating Clinton? Even if this weird blog is correct with its bizarre Monte Carlo simulations, the GE is many months away.

So sit back, relax, enjoy the adventure.

[undeterred]

22. Hillary given 0% probability of being Democratic nominee

:shrug:

[ShortnFiery]

24. No, HRC has 0% chance of winning the GE because she will NOT be our Democratic Nominee. eom

[Deep13]

29. So, four more years then.

dammit.

[Barack_America]

32. The map is wrong. There is not a single poll that has Clinton winning MI.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/michigan.html

[WeDidIt]

34. I think they're using a poll from three months ago n/t

[HooptieWagon]

231. And no way she wins WV against McC

WV loves their military vets... and you have a vet/former POW against "sniper fire". She loses bad...


OP is BS conjured up by HRC camp... there's no there there.

[Honeycombe8]

33. Oh, now THAT'S a nationally recognized source of predictions. Ha! nt

[Alcibiades]

35. Disclaimer: That guy's an anthropologist!

We have people who study elections. They are called political scientists. There are a whole subfields of political science dedicated to political behavior, voting, and public opinion. There is a way to do what he's attempting, but this isn't it.

If he feels this is that good, he should write it up and submit it to a peer-reviewed journal. May I suggest the APSR?

The best model we have right now is called the "Time for Change" model, and it showed some time ago that whoever we nominate will beat whoever the Republicans nominate. Fortunately, predictions are falsifiable, so we'll see who's right.

[stahbrett]

37. **** New Hillary Nomination Rules ****

All primaries and caucuses are hereby eliminated. Nominee is to be determined by opinion polls (specific polls to be used are to be chosen by any previous Democratic president or first lady with the last name of Clinton).

[patrice]

39. If you can decree that folk in Red states are ir-relevant, by that same principle they can

decree that those in your Blue states are irrelevant.

Although, with an Obama candidacy there's going to be some Purple states, several of which likely WILL be your Blue states and several of which are going to be some of those Red states. So, since the remaining Blue states stay Blue and the overall number of Red states is reduced, Obama becomes pResident of MORE of the people than Clinton would, ergo Obama is the preferable candidate.

[patrice]

49. P.S. PLUS, even if pResident Obama doesn't change some Red states to Purple,

his success will be very seductive to those who DID support him in those Red strongholds = another HUGE reason why he's going to be a very good pResident.

With your map, all we will have is more of the same old power-struggle to the DEATH that gave us votes in support of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq and which IS ensuring the suffering of millions of Americans for the forseeable future.

[Tellurian]

158. I wish I could agree with you, but I can't..

[patrice]

164. That sounds like a threat, which if my cohort were to make a similar threat, you'd kick our butts

for not being real Democrats.

Oh well, so be it, make yourself ir-relevant if you wish. I guess we'll see which group is the biggest come November.

[AllentownJake]

43. 0%

She won't be on the ballot.

[zulchzulu]

45. Nothing like a good laugh in the morning to start the day

First thing is that Hillary Clinton will not be the nominee. Based on how she ran her campaign, you can only imagine how badly she would run a General Election campaign.

Secondly, this "assessment" this far out with polling is about as valuable as the polls six months away from the primary season, which had Hillary Clinton 35% ahead of anyone... some value in that? I don't think so.

Thirdly, the reality of having two Clintons to run against for the Republicans would have been a dream come true. The overwhelming numbers would completely skew any predictions now.

Fourth, in order for Hillary Clinton to get the nomination, she would have to cheat and would then destroy the Democratic Party's chances anyway.

It's a week before she drops out...and if she doesn't, look for her negative numbers to continue to rise.

[Tellurian]

59. It's the math-

[zulchzulu]

161. The math?

How does she get the nomination? What string theory are you using?

[patrice]

180. By starting with the conclusion, 100% "probability" = HC, and backing the numbers in until they fit.

[salguine]

46. Why not 130%? 180%?

[WeDidIt]

48. 100% probability = PROOF THE CLAIM IS BULLSHIT!

There is nothing that is 100% probable.

Ergo, the blog is a LIE!

[patrice]

52. Oh yeah! Thanks for pointing that out. There IS NO SUCH THING!

Whoever put this together doesn't know what probability is and ergo what they are doing.

I'll bet the started with their conclusion and backed the numbers into it.

[Bread and Circus]

55. Thank you.

[insanity]

162. I was about to post the same thing

There is only a 100 probability that this asshole does not fully grip the concept of probability or he is a hack.

He is using polling data ergo there is uncertainty built into it. The best a social scientist could ask for is 95% confidence within a small margin of error (depending on sample size).

This thread should win the award for dumbest thing I've ever had to respond to

[Hippo_Tron]

186. Shhh... don't let Tellurian know that

[galledgoblin]

209. beat me to it

I was too busy rolling on the floor

[livingmadness]

50. And 0% chance of beating Obama. nt

[Inuca]

51. Forget the probabilities

seems she is winning the GE right now, or at least that's what BC is telling us.

This whole thing has become a sad joke...

[patrice]

54. Pssst: Bill is a known liar.

:hide:

[Buzz Clik]

56. 100% probability? Somebody doesn't understand probability

I wonder what these statistical geniuses were projecting about the results of the primaries...

[frickaline]

69. Exactly what I was thinking. (nt)

[Crunchy Frog]

58. By all models, Hillary had a 100% chance of getting the nomination.

And she still managed to blow it. :rofl:

[OzarkDem]

61. Proportional primary voting

Dems, for some unfathomable reason, changed their primary to proportional voting, allowing the weaker candidate's support to be weighted more in assignment of delegates.

Dumb idea.

[WeDidIt]

67. Oddly enough, it was that proporional voting that allowed

Bill Clinton to win the nomination in 1992. Tsongas would ahve wrapped it up early if it was winner take all.

[Crunchy Frog]

133. The lead that she had was insurmountable

even with the rules being what they were. She managed to piss it all away.

[Buzz Clik]

159. 2012

[madrchsod]

64. desperation....it`s not pretty.

[Crunchy Frog]

74. I think it's pretty damned entertaining myself.

:P

[Doityourself]

65. Hillary is not going to be 44...so adjust your thinking and your actions! Get on with your life.

[PATRICK]

66. Nothing has changed

since she began her run. Nothing gained is the stubborn fact of her current losing position in the primaries and nothing gained puts her at the apex supported by the MSM. That apex is the chance to increase her base and get the disaffected to nudge her to victory. It has never been convincing and the support for the notion is very strong from the blatant GOP side. "winning" by a slim margin which is almost certainly her projection, added to her fatal acceptance of GOP ways of fraud and campaigning means almost a certain loss in November- even if she has the most voters who intend her as their choice.

Now let's go the proof of her base strength. She has not lost all that much of what she started with. In the face of traditional dynamics and mathematical despair, gaffes and less than friendly play in the same media that wants to keep the race apparently viable forever, she has continued to sustain her leads up to
a point strategically familiar to the Confederate states during the Civil War. That is truly impressive, solid and a great achievement, although it gets nowhere past where she was last year with regard to the GE. Back then of course she was the lone front runner and that moment in time is forever frozen in the present determination as if Obama simply does not exist except as a rope across her starting line.

Realistically, to win, whatever her solid support in the party, she needed well before now to start forging beyond the party to make a case for a winnable GE margin among the undecideds and crossovers. In this, Obama is almost used as an excuse that kept her back, but the party leaders seemingly throwing her aside, are not misled. The Clintons, both together now because fundamentally inseparable as a political candidacy, have shown how it will come to pass IF they were simply let loose, now, from the Obama problem.

They will lose a multitude of seats for Dems. They will antagonize people in the party toward discouragement and backward atavism in campaign style laughingly imitative of the demonic GOP machine.
They will re-energize and re-legitimize the GOP and the MSM circus. Hillary will not be anymore adept at staying gaffe free and eloquent. Kerry looks like a mythic JFK by comparison. They will not gain anything close to landslide proportions and will be cheated out of the victory by the fraud machinery they are silent about(along with all too many Dem leaders).They will have attained what the GOP has longed for them to attain for decades. The side-splitting spectacle of grief, repudiation and defeat that the GOP longed to make their destiny. It is a comparative mercy to end their careers now with the maximum they could attain as a consolation, not a blind Titanic going down all Americans on board.

Or by some eking out or GOP shrewdness they might, imaginably only, "win" a blasted landscape and suffer the complete failure of the restoration in a way that would make the Impeachment seem like a pleasant soiree- all the while they purge the party of its young hopefuls and progressives, one way or another.

Not a blessed thing has changed in the main for the prospect of a Clinton candidacy. Aggravating and impressive as it is, nothing gives real hope for a victory that has not been severely wounded and thrown away in the effort. What HAS changed is that Obama will be the actual nominee of the party and that it is upon his possibilities that the mutable future will turn. The current defenses and speculations already are the bitter musings of the defiant case, the tattered battleflags framed around the fireplaces of the truculent disappointed, the "undefeated" the unconvinced. What that got the South
or any other such group trapped in myths of a static past one can despairingly guess will be the fate of too many current devotees.

[patrice]

112. Trying to separate myself from my candidate affiliation here . . . Wow! YOU are talented.

Please know, I come from a literary background and write for a living, and I do not say this often. You are a talented writer, but I suspect you've probably heard that more than once.

[workinclasszero]

71. Hillary isn't the nominee

So theres no way she can beat McCain or anyone else.

When will Hillary backers get behind the Democratic nominee, Senator Obama?

[ElsewheresDaughter]

72. I concur

[Buzz Clik]

78. We didn't see that coming.

[SeaLyons]

73. K&R

[RoadRage]

76. Yeah.. that was the same percentage she was given for beating Obama last fall....

Take your "100% guarantees" and shove 'em... she can turn a 100 into a 0 quicker then most!

Thank GOD we're going to nominate the guy who had a 0% shot and turned that into a 100%.. he's definitely the one I want to be behind going into the fall.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

83. when she promised to quit campaigning in Feb?

yeah, I remember that.

[nichomachus]

77. I have a 110 percent chance of beating McCain

Now, if I could only get nominated.

You can't win the lottery if you don't buy a ticket.

[FredScuttle]

86. Green Bay Packers given 100% probability of beating New England Patriots in SB XLII

etc.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

171. Oh, you just HAD to bring that up...

grumble...grumble...grumble

...something about "next year"

[CaptJasHook]

88. You lost me at the Hillaryis44 button

Agent Provocateur.

[Buzz Clik]

89. That's because you're a sexist bastard.

[CaptJasHook]

104. And you are another Misandronist sexist with a plank in their eye.

[CaptJasHook]

132. My apologies. My sarcasm detector was down.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

172. I think Buzz Clik meant to say "Sexy Bastard"

.

[Buzz Clik]

181. Well, it happens. There's a good side to this:

I had the opportunity to find out what "Misandronist" means.

[JimGinPA]

92. And In Other News: Hillary's Chance Of Winning The Nomination Now At 0.5%

http://www.slate.com/id/2191998/

[MrsT]

94. Hillary would win

but no one can say that it is 100% certain.

[Thrill]

95. Well I guess we're going to roll the dice then. Because Hillary ain't winning the nomination

Thanks for playing though.

I'll roll the dice

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

96. Ah, a Douglas Adams fan!

The Infinite Improbability Drive is a wonderful new method of crossing interstellar distances in a few seconds; without all that tedious mucking about in hyperspace. As the Improbability Drive reaches infinite improbability, it passes through every conceivable point in every conceivable universe almost simultaneously. In other words, you're never sure where you'll end up or even what species you'll be when you get there. It's therefore important to dress accordingly. The Infinite Improbability Drive was invented following research into finite improbability which was often used to break the ice at parties by making all the molecules in the hostess' undergarments leap one foot simultaneously to the left in accordance with the theory of indeterminacy. Many respectable physicists said they weren't going to stand for that sort of thing, partly because it was a debasement of science, but mostly because they didn't get invited to those sort of parties.

[Madam Mossfern]

228. me too

see my sig

[panhead1961]

98. Clinton will continue to be a lobbyists best friend - NO THANKS

Same old crap in the White House.

[Moochy]

107. Hey Everybody, its Trollurian!

bootleg boner pills merchant extraordinaire!

[yellowcanine]

110. Actually it is zero, since one has to first win the Democratic nomination.

[SoonerPride]

111. What party is she gonna run on? The Democrats already have a nominee and that is Obama.

Is she gonna run as a Green?

[MethuenProgressive]

113. The Obamacrats have Obama. We Democrats support Clinton.

18 million Democrats have voted for Senator Clinton - so far.

[WeDidIt]

119. You sure do keep adding bogus numbers

to your bogus number.

Hillary HAS NOT RECEIVED 18 million votes.

You ahve bene proven WRONG

EPIC FAIL!

[SeaLyons]

176. That's such a true statement....

:thumbsup:

[Heathen57]

207. Don't you mean that Corporate Democrats and DINOs

support Clinton? Real progressives (and that is what Democrats are supposed to be)would support someone that isn't promising to continue the corporate based fascistpolicies that Clinton and the DLC have been pushing for so long.

Obama is the real Democrat in this race. The majority have approved of his plans and that is why he got the nomination in spite of Clinton's bag of dirty tricks.

[muryan]

216. Odd because Obama is winning

the Democratic primary

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

114. At what? A checkers tournament for has-beens?

[stray cat]

120. If Clintons and all who post she is a guarantee agree to commit sappuku

if they are wrong - I think I would vote for her in the primary. What do supporters say - are you that confident that she will win that you will bet your life on it - after all its a 100% probability on paper 6 months out.

[iamthebandfanman]

123. To bad she lost the primary then?

eh ?

p.s.
id rather 'roll the dice' and take the gamble than FOR SURE put in a lying manipulative group of corporate whores back into the white house.

[amelia]

125. K&R

[Name removed]

128. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[RichardRay]

131. Please check your statistics book

before you post stuff like this.

[johnlal]

134. The convention is in August...

I'll wait to see what the outcome is then. I expect Obama to be our candidate, but I'm not holding my breath. I expect that there will be a lot of angry Democrats if Clinton wheels and deals her way into the nomination.

[Perry Logan]

136. At last! Math that even an Obamite can understand.

Obama's negatives are different matter. Gallup has him leading in the “highly unfavorable” ratings.

[amelia]

137. The Obama Zombies still can't understand it. They have lost all freewill and the ability to think.

[zulchzulu]

163. OK Einstein... let's see the math as to how she gets the nomination...

We await your genius.

:rofl:

[iamthebandfanman]

169. i understand she lost the primary

so what do hypothetical GE polls have to do with anything?

Sorry things didnt go the way you wanted Perry. Maybe you should have spent less time making all those pointless rambling psychedelic mind-fuck videos. Or perhaps not wasting your time re-posting hit job videos like 'obama must be high'. maybe then you would of had a little more time to campaign for hillary. maybe she would have won.


oh , 'ifs' and 'maybes'. thats something you can understand as a hillary supporter eh perry ?!

[kid a]

138. BWAAAAAAA HAhAHAAAAAAAAA hAAAAAAAA......BWAAAAA

[johnlal]

139. You know, the last time we talked this way...

The last time we were told to vote for somebody who could win-- rather than for the candidate we liked better-- we got John Kerry as our candidate. And he didn't win.

[Tellurian]

199. No one is going to steal the GE from Hillary...because she WILL fight for us!

[Heathen57]

208. Only if you are part of the D.C. 'A' list,

she doesn't give a damn about the working people. She thinks that they should vote for her and then she can forget them for another 4 years.

I can't see Clinton fighting for anyone but Clinton. She's proved it over and over.

[GoesTo11]

141. Here are the assumptions that drive the result

According to the original source you gave:

Hillary has 100% chance of winning Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The modeler takes some poll numbers for each state - unclear which ones. Assumes they're correct. Then simulates 450 voters for each state assuming the population proportions in the polls are correct. Then the simulation declares the winner of the state to be whoever got the majority of those 450 votes.

In statistical terms, this simulation of 450 voters to see how often one side wins vs. the other is basically nothing more than a sloppy way of calculating whether the candidate's lead in the poll falls within the margin of error. To illustrate the point, if instead the modeler had simulated 100,000 voters in each state, then if one candidate polled at 50.3% and the other at 49.7%, the range of simulation results for the first candidate might be between 50.25% and 50.35%, and the first candidate would "win" the simulation 100% of the time. This is just backwards. The whole result is driven by the polls that are picked in the first place.

The modeler is making a fancy but wrong model. I guarantee, the person who did this doesn't know much about statistics. They know a little, maybe took an undergrad intro to statistics and got a B-. Just enough to do some wrong things.

[Milo_Bloom]

145. BWAHAHAHAHAHA... Clinton winning Florida is the biggest joke this election season.

[lsusteel]

147. Wait...Wisconsin is a toss up state?

Hasn't it gone Dem every election since like 84 or 88? Same with Michigan. Obama's poll numbers will improve when (if?) the base rallies. He's currently at like 55-65% among Democrats yet still typically down single digits. If the Dem base decides to stop being a bunch of morons and Obama's numbers go up to the typical 75-85%, Obama will cream Mccain.

The problem is Hillary voters are throwing temper tantrums and refusing to vote for him, just so they can say "We told you so." Talk about a Pyrrhic victory.

Independents aren't hurting Obama.

He's drawing a solid amount of Republicans.

No, Obama is loing because the lack of Democratic support.

Good job guys. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

[racaulk]

149. No one can predict with 100% certainty what will happen in 5.5 months.

If so, then they're missing they're true calling of predicting lottery numbers.

[Perry Logan]

150. All that bashing, all those lies--and America still prefers Hillary.

That's like a miracle, isn't it?

[Heathen57]

206. Not according to the delegates won,

states won, and yes the popular vote. (The real popular vote, not the numbers that Clinton and Co. cooked up)

I know she lost our state and soundly. Most folks I have heard talking politics are completely disgusted with her campaign tactics as well as her ties to the corporations.

You really should come back into the real world.

[tammywammy]

153. She has a 0% chance, since she won't be the nominee

:shrug:

[Cali_Democrat]

154. 100% probability?

:silly:

[Douglas Carpenter]

160. " Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee"

Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 63.4% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

" Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

166. A post breath-taking in its stupidity...

This site uses 2004 election results from states that haven't been polled recently, and doesn't include any documentation as to its source data (other than bare assertion by the site's author).

Just a second, let me bend over here and pull some numbers out of my butt...

There we go. Hey! What do you know! 100% for Obama!!

Woot! Woot!

[AtomicKitten]

168. She has 0% probability of beating McCain because she can't get past Obama first & won't be in the GE

[Skidmore]

173. Did you pass "Intro to Stats"--either high school or college level?

Just askin'..

[NJmaverick]

175. Did they run out the numbers for the other primary losers

like Richardson and Edwards?

[Tellurian]

202. They don't do quitters!

[Cheap_Trick]

184. 100% chance

that you're full of shit if you think that it's "in the bag" for hillary.

I know, this is what you must believe to sleep at night.

But it is over.

Hillary is done.

toast.

[graycem]

188. Maybe this was before

she angered and offended a huge chunk of Obama supporters. Now, it seems we're in a little catch-22. Clinton supporters are threatening to not vote for Obama, "so see, we should give the nomination to Hillary because he can't win." I strongly believe you should allow for people who would stay home if she is just handed the whole thing after losing fair and square. See how this works? So I guess hello President McCain.

[oxbow]

189. Your country needs you!

This is bigger than Obama or Clinton! This is about whether MCCain gets to lead the most powerful country in the world for 4+ years or not. Please stop trolling for Hillary. Let the remaining contests play out. Let the Rules and bylaws committee make their choice and respect it. Then, I hope the losers will take the appropriate time to grieve together and let go of any remaining negativity before joining the rest of the party in this fight. Please stop making divisive and unfounded posts. And Obama supporters, please stop attacking Hillary supporters. Show half the class your candidate showed today and hold to the high ground...

[Indenturedebtor]

190. Are they going bowling or arm wrestling? ESPN 2 I take it? What time? n/t

[oxbow]

195. this is a silly argument...

Obama has been picking up SD's much faster than Clinton in the past month, and the election's over in a week, leaving Obama decisively ahead on that count. And please let's get this "Clinton is 100% against McCain" meme stomped now, because it is just bad math, any statistician worth his salt will tell you that.

*You need to take a minute to take a step back from all this.*

Also, and this is a question for ALL our Hillary supporters, do you plan on supporting the nominee come November? Because if you think we can afford 4-8 years of John McCain at this point in our history, then theres no point in us even having this conversation.




"One of my heroes is Abraham Lincoln," said Obama. "And a while back there was a wonderful book written by Doris Kearns Goodwin called 'Team of Rivals,' which talked about Lincoln basically pulled in all the people who had been running against him into his Cabinet because whatever . . . personal feelings there were, the issue was how can we get this country through this time of crisis."

"And I think," he added, "that has to be the approach that one takes, whether it's vice president or Cabinet, whoever, and by the way that does not exclude Republicans either."

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

201. It's just like Sex Panther 60% of the time it works, every time.

[flvegan]

203. Hominidviews.com?

I'm convinced.

[scheming daemons]

204. 100% probability in GE multiplied by 0% probability in Democratic primaries = 0% chance of being

President.

[Danger Mouse]

210. Where the hell did you get this site? Straight from your ass?

[galledgoblin]

211. where was this study two months ago

when I was trying to pull together a project for statistics?! studying how these numbers were twisted and fudged would have been so much more entertaining than a standard analysis of a dataset from Housing and Urban Development! :rofl:

[moobu2]

212. She's our only hope

[muryan]

217. Bullshit

Obama won't lose wisconsin or michigan

[Johnny__Motown]

218. Inevitable... Honestly???? Trying this meme again?????

[Jerseycountryman]

219. It's too early to make predictions

So many things can change the electoral map from today till November that it is useless in my opinion to make extrapolations and predictions this early.

[D23MIURG23]

220. You have to be kidding right?

You may as well just call her the tooth fairy. Things are never certain to happen in the way this post is implying, and you are gullible if you beleive it.

[rg302200]

221. Your right wing propaganda smells

funny...so why don't you go back to the B.S. website of yours and leave us real Democrats alone!

[Unbowed]

222. Kind of tough to do if you're not the nominee. More like snowball's chance in Hell. n/t

[jillan]

225. I don't know if I should cry or scream.

I am very worried about Obama in the GE.

[Frumious B]

230. A "100% chance" claim is patently ridiculous in politics.

Anyone who makes it all ready has badly compromised credibility.

[dems_rightnow]

232. There are very few things that are 100% probability....

.... and an election 5 months away, with its ever shifting dynamics, certainly is not one.

Dear God, if they're going to make up probabilities, at least use one that isn't so blatantly wrong.

[LTR]

233. But no chance of beating Obama

C'mon, will you people wake up and get out of fantasy land?

I nuke my ignore list and it's the same ol' shit. Sheesh!

[Voltaire99]

234. But there's no functional difference between Hillary and McCain.

So who bloody cares which one wins?

[ballsalicious]

235. I 100% put you on ignore