So here's what I'm looking at in terms of electoral college votes

[Hawkeye-X]

Kerry gets everything EXCEPT the following states:

Idaho
Montana
Utah
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Alaska
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
Kentucky
Indiana
Tennessee

A total of 170 EV's

Kerry wins by 368 EV's.

So what do you agree/disagree with?

Discuss.

Hawkeye-X

[smada]

1. I think that's wishful thinking

and dangerous. There is a real danger in overconfidence. This is going to be a squeaker, just like 2000.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. What is the factual basis for your opinion?

Is there one?

[smada]

9. It's my opinion

Am I not entitled to an opinion? Should I clear my thoughts with you before I post?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. No one said you don't have a right to your opinion. What I asked was

what are the facts that you examined prior to forming your opinion? Did you examine any facts prior to forming your opinion.


Am I not entitled to an opinion? Should I clear my thoughts with you before I post?

No please do not do that, but you should honestly engage in discussion. For example, when you state your opinion, and someone asks you how and why you arrived at that opinion, you should not falsely imply that they are saying you are not entitled to your opinion.

[sangh0]

12. Silly feanor

Don't you know that a "discussion" is where someone expresses their opinion and you sit there, silently nodding in agreement?

[smada]

14. I try to look at things objectively

not as I wish them to be. Reference Voltaire.

I think it is absurdly optimistic to think that Kerry is going to take 2/3 of the electoral votes.

History, and common sense, indicate that that is wishful thinking.

[LouKYDem]

2. wouldn't rule out TN or AR...

honestly, I think we have just as much of a chance to win in TN or AR as we do in NC. I mean these have (somehow) become (to some extent) swing states in a few recent polls while NC has been staying red, barely moving toward blue.

[iamjoy]

3. I Wouldn't Count On It

it's nice to be optimistic, but I wouldn't say, count on Florida or North Carolina.

[SaveElmer]

4. Kerry' s not gonna get Virginia

It'll probably be closer than usual...but not gonna happen...he has better chance in Arkansas than Virginia.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. I wouldn't be overconfident about that, if I were you

[hughee99]

5. I wouldn't be too confident about

North Carolina or Virginia, but I think Tennessee is still in play.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Close, but also give Kerry TN and AR if he gets 54% of pop. vote.

tia

[crispini]

7. Here's a really great website...

I enjoy... not quite a prediction, but more of a "if the election were held today." Lotsa interesting math... he has a rolling average of the polls.

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

[Yavin4]

13. Kerry Is Behind In Ohio

And Florida under Jeb just cannot be trusted ever.