Will Obama make 2026 by Saturday?

[Youphemism]

Here's your chance to say, "I told you so."

For our standard, let's pick the count used by this site:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

To have a definite end time, let's choose any time before the DNC announces its final decision on the seating of delegates, presumably on Saturday.

Whaddya think?

[LordJFT]

1. unfortunately no, but soon

[gristy]

2. No. One of the remaining primaries will put him over.

[thoughtcrime1984]

3. June 3 June 3 June 3

June 3.

[tokenlib]

4. No,by design they will let pledged delegates push him over...

...but what the hell do I know...

[WeDidIt]

5. Yes, he will

And the R&BC Will seat the FL And MI delegates thusly:

Florida will be seated based upon the illegitimate primary with each pledged delegate gaining half a vote each. Most or all of the Edwards delegates will endorse Obama.

Michigan will be seated based upon the illegitimate primary with each pledged delegate gaining half a vote each. All of the uncommitted delegates will go to Obama as he abided by the rules not to participate.

All Super Delegates from each state will be seated with a full vote.

The number will become 2138.

The bar will be raised. Obama's talking point will be "they moved the goal posts on us, but we'll win it any way!"

Puerto Rico will vote on June 1. Obama will get within striking distance.

Montana and South Dakota will vote on June 3. This will put Obama over the top.

Game over.

[panader0]

6. Your answer seems the best so far to this mess.

[Yukari Yakumo]

7. Wrong dates.

PR's primary is the 1st. MT's and SD's primaries is on the 3rd. Regardless of the committee's decision, those dates are not subject to change.

My prediction, FL's and MI's delegate totals are halved. All of their delegates come from pledged delegates. As a result, HRH HRC will net about 30 delegates more than Obama.

[WeDidIt]

13. Thanks, fixed the dates

Had a brain fart.

[Johnny__Motown]

8. I think the MI compromise will be accepted by the RBC, netting 10 for Hillary

and the FL 1/2 delegate compromise will net Hillary 18


so a net 28 for Hillary

[Spider Jerusalem]

11. The MI and FL superdelegates won't get to vote at the convention.

DNC penalty is -50% of pledged and -100% of SDs. If they're going to seat the delegationhs per the standard rules rather than abide by the penalty imposed by Dean on FL and MI, neither state gets any superdelegates.

[WeDidIt]

14. Better read the rules again

there is no specificity regarding supers one way or the other.

[KSinTX]

9. 49's an awful long haul

Sorry, DemConWatch is my only source for SDs. RCP's at 51 even harder.

[housewolf]

10. I'm a strong Obama supporter but I hope he doesn't hit 2026 before 5/31

I want him to win the nomination and the GE, I want it bad.

But I'm certain that FL & MI will be resolved in some way on next Saturday, 5/31. That will change the number of delegates needed to win a majority and thus to win the nomination.

I think it would be premature and a very bad move for Obama to reach 2026 and claim victory before FL & MI are resolved. Why? Because resolving FL & MI will change the number of delegates needed to win the majority. It will increase the number. I'd hate to see Obama declare himself the winner sometime this week and then have to retract it on Saturday when the numbers change next Saturday. Better to wait until after Saturday & Puerto Rico on Sunday and we all know what the situation is.

It's only a few days, we can wait. Can't we????

[Youphemism]

15. Obama is a bright guy...

...I don't think he's about to overplay his hand by declaring victory if he makes 2026.

Obama supporters, on the other hand, might get a bit over-exuberant and upset the Clinton loyalists -- not in this forum, of course, where kindness and civility have been the hallmark of both camps, but out there in the world where people can tend to take their advocacy to extremes.

[DerekJ]

12. No. After June 3rd.