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Frankly, though I disagree with the charge, the idea that Kerry lacks principles and is a rootless flip-flopper are going to hurt Kerry. I think he'll still win by a decent margin, but if it weren't for that charge, he'd win by double-digits and he'd be leading with double-digits by now.
The fact is, the charge that Kerry lacks principles is the chief argument I've heard people use against him. Most people I know are upset with Bush, including one friend of mine who is a hard-core Repub (not a Freeper, but a Classical Conservative). He thinks Bush is a lousy President - he thinks Iraq was unnecessary, he thinks Bush's fiscal policies are a disaster, and he dislikes much of the agenda. Nevertheless, he can't bring himself to vote for Kerry because he "doesn't trust him." I've heard this charge from others - many moderates and centrist Republicans in particular who are leaning towards Bush.
Frankly, this charge hurts him amongst the left too. Many of us now like Kerry much more than before. The charge does still stick with a segment of the left. However, most of the left is so antipathetic towards Bush, that they are voting Kerry anyway. Of many in the middle, that's not so true.
Kerry needs to talk about his investigations, about BCCI and the Iran-Contra investigation. Frankly, some politician-like boastfulness would be helpful here - Kerry could say he "uncovered" Iran-Contra, which is somewhat misleading b/c it implies that Iran-Contra was entirely Kerry's investigation, but its true on the substance: he did begin the process.
Fact is, he needs to show many Americans that he's trustworthy. If he loses, it'll be for that reason. As someone recently wrote in The New Republic Online, an outcome similar to the '92 British election is possible. Then, the public was sick of the Tories, but in the end broke for them unexpectedly over Labor b/c they didn't trust the Labor leader, Neil Kinnock. I think Kerry will win, but we can't get complacent.
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