Ohio, Florida & Pennsylvania

[THUNDER HANDS]

What do you think will be the scenario that plays out in November with these three states. They are the 'Big 3' in terms of swing states and I think whoever wins two of the three wins the election.

So how do you think they'll turn out?

I say Kerry wins all three in a massive landslide electoral college victory.

You?

[Zynx]

1. I think he wins all of them.

That doesn't necessarily produce a landslide electoral college victory. It might only be slightly over 300, which is narrow.

[THUNDER HANDS]

3. I think it would make a landslide

Gore lost Ohio and Florida and I believe Bush only won the electoral college by a few votes. With those two states Kerry should win the EC by at least 50 votes, no?

[Zynx]

4. Slightly over 300 is not a landslide. That's historically quite narrow.

[phillybri]

2. I say the fix is still on in FL...but he'll take OH and PA...

n/t

[JohnKleeb]

5. I think he can take all 3

He has the best chance at PA I think though.

[calico1]

6. I think it will be harder to steal

Florida this time as all eyes will be on the State on Nov. 2. I hope I am right. I think that despite the job losses in OH there are still enough Conservatives to give the State to Bush.

[tom_paine]

7. Florida is Diebolded...and the fiefdom of Prince Jeb

Sorry, but I see no indication that Kerry has any chance of winning a state like that any more than Leon Trostsky could have won the 1936 Soviet "election" over Stalin.

The same chance.

I hope I am wrong.

[Cheswick2.0]

8. only Pa

sorry but that is the way I see it right now. I don't thkn democrats are taking a tough enough stand in florida. They should be demanding paper ballots all around.

[DemWitch]

9. I hope he gets Ohio

but it's too damn close to call... Ohio 2004 is going to be the Florida of 2000 I think...

[Chili]

10. I live in Ohio

...and I can't even begin to guess which way my own state will go. Ohioans, from my perspective, have always been quiet about their politics on the whole, so it's very hard to guage what voters are thinking. My next door neighbor used to have me on his large email list (where I never said a word nor replied)... and, for years, there was enough sickening Clinton-bashing going on to make me puke, but I've always thought it best to Know Thy Enemy. After a horrendous attack on Martin Luther King (and I still said nothing - again, I prefer being an outraged but silent fly on the wall) they removed my name, and there have been no more emails since then. But just this past weekend I heard this same neighbor fighting loudly with his wife about "criticizing Kerry"... <"SHUT UP!" - "I can't stand being around you any more!"> when only a year ago, I heard her bashing "liberals." Who knew? LOL... to me, an Ohioan, the Ohio voter is a mystery.

[LimpingLib]

11. Pennsylvania is safe.

Missouri, Florida , and Ohio are the ones to watch.

All Bush states too.He needs thm all unless he can take Iowa an then Missouri wont win it for us.

New Hamphire will be ours, aside from that start by giving both partys everything they won in 2000 then watch the 3 states in my first sentence.

[Bombtrack]

12. I disagree that PA is the third most important. I say Missouri is. PA is

leaning away from tossup. The fact is if Kerry wins every Gore state he'll have 260, and he needs 10 more to win. Missouri has 11, Ohio has 20, and Florida has 27. There are other states Kerry can get the additional 10 from, say, a combo of WV and NV, or one of the currently leaning-Bush swingstates (AZ,CO,AR,TN,VA,N) but the 3 states I think we should be concentrating most on are MO, FL, and OH

[DaveinMD]

13. PA

is definitely going Dem. I think there is an excellent chance of Florida and about a 45 percent chance of winning Ohio.

[freetobegay]

14. Call me crazy

But who ever wins Florida, wins the Presidency.

[Chili]

15. more sleepers

...Tennessee, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Steal two of those if at all possible. But agree that PA is edging towards safe, and MO is now more important.

Unfortunately, I... I'm not optomistic about Ohio. Florida is the better target, "the fix" notwithstanding.

[zbdent]

16. Voted Kerry winning Ohio & PA

Remember, this is my opinion.

Florida is full of tax dodgers - likely to be close, but still for Bush.

In 2000, ole Wooden-block Gore won Pennsylvania, but closely.

Ohio was for Bush, but I don't think that they're going to get fooled again.

All three are going to be close, but no 36-day shootout.

[fujiyama]

17. PA is starting to lose

its status as a swing state. It's very unlikely Bush will take it.

Florida and Ohio are still toss ups, but I think Florida's demographics and every other factor favors us. The polls are starting to show Kerry with a decent sized lead (6-7 pts) and these are pretty reliable polls.

I think Ohio is still a possibility, but I think FL is more likely (atleast discounting the fraud factor).

Other states to watch are MO, NV, WV, AR, and TN...and maybe even VA and AZ (though these are more difficult). I think it would be really great if Kerry wins VA, for the simple reason that Clinton himself couldn't carry it. I would love to see Kerry carry a state Clinton couldn't, being that he's a "Massachusetts Liberal" and everything compared to being from the south -- Also Pat Robertson always claims the state is safe.