State polling weighted by number of voters: Kerry wins 47-44 w/o undecided

[Zynx]

What I did here was predict on average ten percent higher
turnout than in 2000 which would translate into about 54 or
55% turnout or roughly 115,000,000 voters. I adjusted each
state's total number of voters by that amount and then entered
in Bush and Kerry's poll numbers in on a state by state basis.
The second set of numbers here is if undecideds are thrown in
at a 70% split for Kerry which most pundits have said is
reasonable. Some of these columns may be off, but enjoy
anyway.

State	2000 Vote	'04 Projected 	Bush Proj	Kerry Proj
Alabama	 1,672,551	1,839,806	1,030,291	625,534
Alaska	 285,560	314,116	        175,905	        103,658
Arizona	 1,534,113	1,687,524	810,012	        776,261
Arkansas 921,781	1,013,959	486,700	        466,421
California10,965,856	12,062,442	4,824,977	6,151,845
Colorado  1,741,365	1,915,502	919,441	        823,666
Connecticut1,459,525	1,605,478	513,753	        802,739
Delaware   327,622	360,384	        151,361	        198,211
DC	   201,894	222,083	        19,988	        190,992
Florida	   5,963,110	6,559,421	2,820,551	3,279,711
Georgia	   2,596,804	2,856,484	1,485,372	1,171,159
Hawaii	   367,951	404,746	        165,946	        194,278
Idaho	   501,621	551,783	        303,481	        137,946
Illinois   4,742,123	5,216,335	2,034,371	2,816,821
Indiana	   2,199,302	2,419,232	1,112,847	653,193
Iowa	   1,315,563	1,447,119	665,675	        694,617
Kansas	   1,072,216	1,179,438	660,485	        424,598
Kentucky   1,544,187	1,698,606	883,275	        713,414
Louisiana  1,765,602	1,942,162	1,009,924	699,178
Maine	   651,817	716,999	        315,479	        344,159
Maryland   2,025,480	2,228,028	868,931	        1,180,855
Massachusetts 2,702,984	2,973,282	891,985	        1,665,038
Michigan      4,232,711	4,655,982	1,908,953	2,421,111
Minnesota     2,438,685	2,682,554	1,207,149	1,260,800
Mississippi   994,926	1,094,419	667,595	        328,326
Missouri      2,359,892	2,595,881	1,246,023	1,271,982
Montana	      410,997	452,097	        239,611	        149,192
Nebraska      697,019	766,721	        475,367	        253,018
Nevada	      608,970	669,867	        308,139	        301,440
New Hampshire 569,081	625,989	        262,915	        306,735
New Jersey    3,187,226	3,505,949	1,156,963	1,858,153
New Mexico    598,605	658,466	        283,140	        329,233
New York    6,822,451	7,504,696	2,251,409	4,352,724
North Carolina2,911,262	3,202,388	1,633,218	1,409,051
North Dakota  288,267	317,094	        193,427	        104,641
Ohio	    4,705,457	5,176,003	2,329,201	2,380,961
Oklahoma    1,234,229	1,357,652	801,015	        475,178
Oregon	    1,533,968	1,687,365	708,693	        843,682
Pennsylvania4,913,119	5,404,431	2,215,817	2,864,348
Rhode Island 409,112	450,023	        112,506	        220,511
South Carolina1,383,777	1,522,155	776,299	        669,748
South Dakota	316,269	347,896	177,427	121,764
Tennessee   2,076,181	2,283,799	1,096,224	1,050,548
Texas	    6,407,637	7,048,401	3,876,620	2,607,908
Utah	    770,754	847,829	        568,046	        186,522
Vermont	    294,308	323,739	        116,546	        165,107
Virginia    2,739,447	3,013,392	1,446,428	1,356,026
Washington  2,488,745	2,737,620	1,231,929	1,450,938
West Virginia648,124	712,936	        313,692	        342,209
Wisconsin   2,598,607	2,858,468	1,314,895	1,343,480
Wyoming	    218,351	240,186	        163,327	        67,252
Vote Totals 105,417,204	115,958,924	51,233,322	54,606,882
		Vote Percents	        44.18%	        47.09%
			Total committed 	        91.27%
			Undecided	                8.73%

Undecided	Bush Adjusted	Kerry Adjusted
183,981	        1,085,486	754,321
34,553	         186,271	127,845
101,251	         840,387	847,137
60,838	         504,952	509,007
1,085,620	 5,150,663	6,911,779
172,395	         971,159	944,342
288,986	         600,449	1,005,029
10,812	         154,605	205,779
11,104	          23,319	198,765
459,159	        2,958,299	3,601,122
199,954	        1,545,358	1,311,126
44,522	         179,303	225,444
110,357	         336,588	215,195
365,143	        2,143,914	3,072,421
653,193	        1,308,805	1,110,428
86,827	        691,723	        755,396
94,355	        688,792	        490,646
101,916	        913,850	        784,756
233,059	        1,079,842	862,320
57,360	        332,687	        384,311
178,242	        922,404	        1,305,624
416,260	        1,016,863	1,956,420
325,919 	2,006,728	2,649,254
214,604 	1,271,530	1,411,023
98,498  	697,145	        397,274
77,876	        1,269,386	1,326,495
63,294	        258,599	        193,497
38,336	        486,868	        279,853
60,288	        326,225	        343,642
56,339	        279,817	        346,172
490,833	        1,304,213	2,201,736
46,093	        296,968	        361,498
900,564	        2,521,578	4,983,118
160,119	        1,681,254	1,521,134
19,026	        199,135	        117,959
465,840	        2,468,953	2,707,049
81,459	        825,452	        532,200
134,989	        749,190	        938,175
324,266	        2,313,096	3,091,334
117,006	        147,608	        302,416
76,108	        799,131 	723,023
48,705	        192,039 	155,857
137,028	        1,137,332	1,146,467
563,872	        4,045,782	3,002,619
93,261	        596,024 	251,805
42,086	        129,172 	194,567
210,937	        1,509,709	1,503,682
54,752	        1,248,354	1,489,265
57,035	          330,802	382,134
200,093	          1,374,923	1,483,545
9,607	            166,209	73,977
10,118,720	54,268,938	61,689,986
Adjusted Totals	46.80%	53.20%

Based on the assumption that Charlie Cook used that Kerry gets
70% of undecideds. 

Turnout was based on 10% higher turnout than 2000, hence about
10,000,000 more voters.

[Zynx]

1. EV-349 to 189 in case you are wondering.

[boxster]

2. While I credit you guys for doing all of this research and calculation,

you're missing a large factor in the race - Nader. Anything Nader gets comes straight out of Kerry's totals.

Everyone ignored - or at least underestimated - him in 2000, and he obviously made a huge difference in the outcome.

While I would certainly wish for him to drop out, I'm afraid it isn't going to happen.

Also, assuming 10% higher turnout is probably unrealistic. If you're counting on the "anger with Bush" factor, you're probably counting too high. We're mad, but the average American doesn't seem to be.

[Zynx]

3. He was expected to get 4-5% in 2000.

It is not unrealistic to expect 10% more voters or 54-55% turnout. Such swings are common from election to election and polls show a record amount of voter interest.

Nader's impact in 2000, while decisive, was MUCH less than expected.

[boxster]

5. Sorry, but the facts disagree.

http://www.fairvote.org/turnout/preturn.htm

The turnout in the past eight elections has varied very little. The difference between the highest turnout in the past 32 years and the lowest is only 6% - 49/55.

In addition, the 55% in 1992 was somewhat of an abberation because there were three substantial candidates in the race that year. Discounting '92, there has been almost no movement in 30 years.

[Zynx]

6. The swing between 1996 and 2000 was 9% of the electorate.

I'm talking 10% more voters, not ten percentage points higher turnout. I'm calling for 54%-55% turnout, not sixty. Pay attention. There is a very big difference between what you are talking about and what I'm talking about.

[Zynx]

4. The first analysis includes Nader in the undecideds anyway.

Kerry still wins.

[JPJones]

7. This is a lot of work!

But is meaningless. The polls will change between now and November, and no one really knows how the undecideds will break.

[Zynx]

8. I have the spreadsheet so I can change it with every poll change.

Therefore, it is not meaningless. I will keep updating it to see where it stands.