Montana Poll: O 52; C35 - You're Not in Appalachia Anymore.

[Pirate Smile]

Gazette State Poll: Obama holding sizable margin
By CHARLES S. JOHNSON
Gazette State Bureau

HELENA - Barack Obama has a big lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton in Montana's June 3 Democratic presidential primary, a Gazette State Poll shows.

Obama leads Clinton by 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters, with 13 percent undecided in the poll, which was taken May 19-21. The Democratic primary portion of the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Montana and South Dakota have the nation's last Democratic presidential primaries. With the prolonged battle continuing for the Democratic nomination, Montana's usually ignored late primary has attracted unprecedented interest from Obama and Clinton.

Obama spoke in Missoula and Butte last month, and he returned to Montana last week to campaign in Billings, Bozeman and on the Crow Indian Reservation.

http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/05/25/news/state/26-statepoll_s.txt

Men - O 58 / C 33
Women - O 48 / C 36
Under 50 - O 56 / C 30
Over 50 - O 49 / C 39

Western Montana O 62 / C 25
Eastern Montana C 47 / O 40

Someone needs to alert the media - there is a hell of a lot of the country west of the Mississippi and out here - Obama kicks ass.

As the saying goes ;), You're Not in Appalachia Anymore.

[tekisui]

1. June 3rd will be a very hard night for HIllary./

Last contests, big losses, it will be over.

The rules committee will have ruled on MI/FL, and she will know that the superdelegates will be flooding to Obama.

[K Gardner]

44. She should have taken the opportunity to "go out" on a relative high note after W VA, but she

just can't seem to stop herself.

[TeamJordan23]

52. Yeah, or even Kentucky. She is now going to go out on a big losing note. nm

[DevonRex]

2. Remarkable especially after a fire in the main Obama office

there prevented the staff from accessing their computers or phones or campaign materials. I don't know if they're back in yet but the fire was regarded as suspicious and the office was taped off while investigators worked.

[AllentownJake]

10. Alot of things have been happening to Obama

offices since PA.

The office in Allentown, PA was broken into and all the computers stolen, 3 office in Indiana broken into and vandalized. I don't think its Clinton but I think racist are going to target his offices more and more as the GE approaches.

[mac2]

20. Get real.

Only Republicans would steal their computers which haven't been tampered with.

[still_one]

34. LOL /nt

[genna]

39. BHO needs to think civil rights' means of protecting his offices against theft/vandalism

He might want to think about how close handed the civil rights movement needed to be when it came to towns that had populations who wanted to harrass, discourage, and prevent any activity therein.


He is not dealing with a generation of office workers who did Freedom Rides. He is dealing with a generation who thought all this ugliness (what were Bill Clinton's words we don't have to deal with all the rest of that stuff) was past. If his nomination challenges these views of this country, he should be training those workers for the slurs and the other hatefulness they are going to come into contact with. Not to scare them, but so they will be alert to any possible dangers they may face.


Also, he might want to use some of his money to have portable machines so that his information isn't used by the people who make these thefts.


I don't want to be a storm cloud on a bright and shiny day, but the protection he needs to run this race is the kind vigilance is staff workers should have in openly supporting him in small towns and isolated hamlets.

[jefferson_dem]

3. Good.

Finish out on a high note.

Still waiting on some numbers for SD. The last I saw had Obama up by about a dozen, but the poll was in March.

[Hope And Change]

4. Looking good.

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. it must be all those African-Americans and latte drinking liberal elites that made Montana famous

[Pirate Smile]

7. Too bad he can't get any hard working, white votes.

[havocmom]

12. Yep, we got billions of them!

:rofl:

[youknowmenotdlc]

6. Montana doesn't count

the white people there aren't working class and are too highly educated.

Signed,

Terry " the audacity of being a perpetual asshole" Mcaullife

[Hope And Change]

8. LOL.

[quantass]

9. +1

[havocmom]

13. but most of us are about to give Hillary a mooning she won't forget

The light reflecting off so many of our shiny white asses will be blinding!

[roseBudd]

29. LOL! I love the sight of shiny white ass in the morning. Looks like victory

[AtomicKitten]

11. thanks - I've been looking for polls from Montana and SD

:D

[Robbins]

14. Great News

This proves as many suspected It Is going for Obama.RAS had a poll from April that had Mccain only
5 points ahead of Obama.That Is not good news for Mccain.Clinton won In 1992 because Perot has about 26 percent of the vote.For Obama to be this close to Mccain Is not good news for him.Plus
Montana has a popular Moderate Dem Governor and elected a moderate Dem Antiwar Senator In 2006.
The west Can be the new South.Perahpes with the ObamaRichardson ticket.

[AtomicKitten]

40. I've read quite a few articles contemplating Richardson as VP.

It appears an Obama/Richardson ticket would open all kinds of doors for Democrats. I think we are looking at a realignment of parties already in progress. The new Democratic party under an Obama candidacy just might be setting into motion a Blue Tsunami in the fall. Very exciting times. :D

[dansolo]

64. Obama/Schwietzer

That would be an unstoppable ticket. I'm not really sold on Bill Richardson. If he wanted to pick a western governor, I would go with Brian Schweitzer or Janet Napolitano.

[aaaaaa5a]

15. Wow!

I didn't know that many black people lived in Montana!

There must not be any hard working white people there.

[still_one]

16. There must not be any white people in Montana /nt

[hokies4ever]

23. Or they don't have color TVs

and they're in for a surprise when they meet him. :rofl:

[Aloha Spirit]

71. ha, good one!

[YourUniqueDemocrat]

17. the bad news: Obama trails McCain in Montana

New Mason-Dixon poll:

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/05/25/news/local/news03.txt

[mac2]

19. It's a Conservative state with low population.

Obama wins there why is that? Could be they want him to win the primary so he can lose the GE?

[Thrill]

21. Thats actually good news. The Repuke should be much more ahead.

Look at the undecideds. Bush won it by 24 points and 20 points.

[SoxFan]

45. An 8 point lead in Montana

That's not encouraging news for McCain. Heck, if you stretch the margin of error to its max, the race is a dead heat.

[MindMatter]

49. Exactly. Since when has a Republican had to play defense in Montana?

This is excellent news. I never realized there were so many latte-swilling liberals, college professors, and urban blacks in Montana. Learn something new every day.

[Pirate Smile]

74. with McBush under 50%.

[CreekDog]

60. if Obama loses Montana by only 8 points

then you have President Obama.

[janx]

18. I love Montana!

[YourUniqueDemocrat]

35. You love a state that loves McCain?

Wow. Not me.

[SoxFan]

54. Here. Let me help you out.

http://www.freerepublic.com

Now go away.

[gmudem]

72. Yeah it's not like they have Jon Tester or Brian Schweitzer

Those guys aren't important at all.

Bye troll.

[hokies4ever]

22. Is he losing with seniors? (65+)

Obama has already said that he has an 'elderly problem'. I'm curious as to whether or not he will win the 65+ vote in Montana.

[Pirate Smile]

25. The only age demo shown is over 50 and under 50 - he is winning both.

[hokies4ever]

31. I know, but he actually does fairly well in the 50-65 age group

contrary to popular belief, which is why it's hard to interpret this data.

[stray cat]

24. And I thought Montana and SD had hard working white Americans

silly me....I wonder why I have such a hard time finding a good latte when I'm in those states?

[MattNC]

26. Thanks

been waiting for a Montana poll forever.

[workinclasszero]

27. Lots of latte sipping, Prius driving eggheads in Montana

Who would've guessed it?:D

GOBAMA!!!:applause:

[stray cat]

55. Actually quite a few have retired there - but not in SD

[smalll]

63. YES THERE ARE.

Even out here in New York, we've read often in recent years about all the rich people from L.A., San Fran, and other places in California who have bought a few dozen acres for themselves in Montana and built themselves luxury pseudo-ranches. This is what Hillary is up against there.

[book_worm]

28. I guess there probably are no hard-working white voters in OR, MT, and SD?

[qazplm]

30. Headline: Has Hillary lost white people?

Nah, I'm just kidding.

[Pirate Smile]

32. We should get very overwrought - "Why Can't Hillary win western white people?" "Why can't Hillary

win the mountain west, the plains, the upper-Midwest?" Why? Why? Why????

[MindMatter]

50. No. She has just lost it, period.

[MindMatter]

51. She is no longer a candidate. She is a national joke.

[suston96]

33. Another red state that Obama will not carry in November.....

...Yeah, all that "country west of the Mississippi"? How many red states will Obama carry in November?

Yeah, I know. He doesn't need them. He doesn't need Hillary Clinton supporters in November either.

[Douglas Carpenter]

36. Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November

Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November

"New polling from Minnesota was released today showing Obama retaining a double digit lead over McCain. Polling released Friday showed Obama with the advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In both states, McCain had the edge a month ago (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up. "

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

----------------------------------------

Average of National Polls:

Obama 46.9/McCain 44.0 = Obama + 2.9

Clinton 46.1/McCain 44.9 = Clinton + 1.2

The general election polls averages the latest polls from Gallup Tracking, Rasmussen Tracking, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post, Democracy Corp, LA Times/Bloomberg, IDBB/TIPP, Battleground

links:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

--------------------------------------------------

Gallup: Key Clinton voters are shifting to Obama



----------------------------------------------------

Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November:


"New polling from Minnesota was released today showing Obama retaining a double digit lead over McCain. Polling released Friday showed Obama with the advantage in both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. In both states, McCain had the edge a month ago (see summary of recent state-by-state results).

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead. Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up.

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[Colobo]

37. Suston, you need to admit it's over and that we need to rally around Obama.

[suston96]

43. I don't "rally" around anyone. I work hard for their election. And it ain't over until...

...the Democratic National Convention says it's over and NOT when GD: P or CNN says it's over.

I have already posted that I would support the nominee. In fact, I said so back in December of 2006. (On another forum board).

In the Zone
Posts: 29037
(12/12/06 12:36 pm)


New Post Re: Barack

I love Hillary dearly. At this point, I would be thrilled at seeing Obama as the candidate and watch this country go through his election as president.

Check that date.

However, I will not "rally" for the Democratic Party if Florida and Michigan are not counted in this primary process. I spent too many years working for voting rights. Ignoring the voters of two major states goes against my democratic principles.

[PM7nj]

53. Just like Kentucky, Tennessee, Arizona, and Oklahoma...

....red states Clinton would never carry in November.

I'm sorry but you can't claim that red states Obama wins are meaningless while Clinton's wins in Kentucky, Tennessee, Arizona, etc are HUGE and prove that she is the better candidate.

[suston96]

58. Where did I claim any such thing? Please link where I said that....

In fact, go here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6120720&mesg_id=6121627

"Do this when nobody is watching you.....I won't tell...

Subtract all those red states which Obama "won" in the primaries (because they will stay red).

Subtract the red states Hillary won for the same reason.

Now see what is left and make your own decision as to who is more "electable." "

I posted that elsewhere. Go ahead. Try my experiment. Or go to the electoral maps I have linked:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May25.html

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May25.html

[anonymous171]

70. Kind of like KY?

[BeyondGeography]

38. MT and SD will send Hilly out on a big losing note

So sad. :cry:

[Darth_Kitten]

41. Fine, but doesn't Montana have a very sparse population?

n/t

[book_worm]

42. Oh, back to the "small red state" arguement when it suits Hillary's needs

[SoxFan]

46. Except if it's a small, red hillbilly state

Those count, apparently.

[NJSecularist]

47. Awesome! Another solid red Republican state that we have no chance of winning in the Fall

where Obama does well.

That really gives me a warm feeling about how well he is going to do in the Fall. :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[AllentownJake]

48. All the states left

Are GOP states and Puerto Rico doesn't vote. What are you hoping for the primary in Poland?

[mikiturner]

57. Poland doesn't count

Too many latte drinkers.

[McDiggy]

68. As an interesting aside.....

.....I saw a guy with a camo hat and a Dukes of Hazard t-shirt on this morning in WV at Starbucks buying a latte. It made me chuckle.

[stray cat]

56. Montana has a democratic governor and so did SD until Dashle got beat

[totodeinhere]

61. Plus Dem Senators Max Baucus and John Tester.

[mikekohr]

65. Tom Dashle was A Senator.

SD's Governor is Mike Rounds (R). Before him it was Wild Bill Janklow, the disgraced, convicted, jailed, and self described "Indian Fighter," that based his political appeal to white voters in SD by appealing to their fears and prejudices.

SD will be a tougher nut to crack in the general than MT but if Obama shows strength there, it will be a sign of how quickly positive change is coming to the New and the Old West.

mike kohr

[Upton]

69. It's Daschle, not "Dashle"

[mikekohr]

62. Expanding the playing field to help the ENTIRE Democratic Ticket

Senator Obama is helping open up the 50 state strategy of Howard Dean. Deny your enemy a safe base of operation and fight him EVERYWHERE. How well has the old tactics held up? We lost 7 of the last 10 presidential elections fighting the tactics of the past.

In case you have not been paying attention Montana has 2 Democratic Senators and a Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer. Montana's governor is in my eyes the model of what it takes for Democrats to compete in "Middle America" and in the "New West."

I suspect Governor Schweitzer and even Montana's junior Senator Jon Testor, are on the list of Senator Obama's list of possible VP candidates.

mike kohr

[Thrill]

66. You mean just like we have no chance of winning of IN, KY, and WV

[Hippo_Tron]

67. You would be surprised, we may have a chance at Montana in the fall

Schweitzer and Tester didn't win there just because they wear cowboy boots. They won because progressives have been organizing for years in that state and we're starting to see the benefits.

[swishyfeet]

73. Come on... say it.... Montana doesn't count.

Yes, that's EXACTLY what you're implying.

[havocmom]

59. Mt sent the first woman to Congress. Never have been Appalachia here

And the light will be blinding when we moon HRC with our white asses in the morning sun!

[kid a]

75. Canvassed in BIllings yesterday results

72 homes on Billings west side - Upper/Middle class area surrounding Yellowstone Golf course

25 not home - literature drop.
10 refused to talk.
5 undecided between Obama and Hillary
2 Hillary
16 GOP firm
14 Obama firm

Going back out in a little while

[Pirate Smile]

76. Woo Hoo - keep up the good work!

:yourock: