One electoral college map using most recent polls

[Inland]

has Kerry has Kerry leading, including polls within MOE, with 260 ev, and Bush with 175 ev, including polls within MOE, with 82 ev "too close to call" and no polls available for 21 ev.

since the no polls available include the strongly democratic state of Hawaii and the District of Columbia, we can predict seven more ev definitively in the Kerry column without really having to disregard any polling data.

To win, Kerry needs 270, so from 267 currently strong Kerry or leaning Kerry, he needs: Delaware. Come on, Delaware!

[Inland]

1. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

[XNASA]

2. Actually, it's more like 307-231 Kerry right now.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The only state with more than 15 EV that w* is sure to win is Texas.

The latest polls show that Florida is +7 for Kerry.

Bushco is worried, very worried.

[DaveSZ]

3. What's up with Ohio?

?

[Poiuyt]

4. There are a lot of rednecks in Ohio

I went to college there. Once you get out of the college towns, it's pretty backwoods. Nice people, but not very liberal.

[Inland]

7. If you compare your site with mine

you will see that the difference is that my site takes out the too close to call and yours still assigns them. Given the science of polling, I go with the "conservative" measure--and Kerry is still three points from victory, having to pick up one of the 87 close ones.

[Bombtrack]

5. It's moronic to just go by a classification with "the latest polls"

you have to look at each state and it's polls in a group, not on an individual basis.

[Inland]

6. Umm, that doesn't make any sense when a state takes a poll once a month

There were a slew of new polls in these states in August, why include polls from months ago? I'll take the latest for what they are worth--leaving out the close polls as indeterminate.

[athena]

8. Also,

I believe polls are based only on "likely" voters. That usually means people who voted in the last presidential election. The polls can't predict how many people will vote this year who didn't vote in 2000. It looks like there will be many new voters voting for Kerry this year.

[Inland]

9. I've heard that.

[Tweed]

10. Welcome to the DU!

:toast:

[LiberalFighter]

12. More than that

new voters that have never voted
voters registered in 2000 but did not vote

Then you have
voters registered in 2000 and voted for gw*
voters registered in 2000 and voted for other than Gore

All will play an important part in electing Kerry

[ItsMyParty]

11. I Always take Florida out of the mix

I don't care if Kerry has a 98% lead in Florida going into the final days....it just isn't going to happen. It just isn't. That's what Jeb is there for. They know that election fraud, among so much else, never gets prosecuted at the high levels. Florida IS in Bush's column. Get use to it and do all figuring accordingly.