SurveyUSA Oregon: Obama (55) ; Clinton (42)

[MattNC]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=43d3ad90-4714-4aef-ad28-931961c0aaf6

"In the Oregon Democratic Primary, which is conducted entirely by mail-in ballot, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 9 points among the 77% of likely voters who have already returned a ballot, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV in Portland. When all likely voters are included, including those who say they will return a ballot before the window of opportunity closes, Obama defeats Clinton 55% to 42%. All of Obama's advantage comes from men. Among women, Clinton and Obama tie. Among men, Obama leads by 28 points. Among voters age 65+, Clinton leads by 12. Among voters younger than 65, Obama leads. In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted over the past 6 weeks, Obama has never polled below 50%. Clinton has never polled above 44%. Obama has led by 10 points, 6 points, 11 points, and today by 13 points."

[Connie_Corleone]

1. Now, this poll is a lot better, and probably more accurate.

[DeschutesRiver]

9. I posted this elsewhere

but that Suffox poll was just discredited by Steve Law, of the Portland Tribune, along with Tim Hibbets - just on MSNBC. It counted at least 10% independent voters, except independents are not allowed to vote in these democratic primaries in Oregon. It also used a skew with regards to old vs. young voters which assumed a low voter turnout - which increases older votes, which of course favors Clinton.

Except that our numbers are showing we are about to have a record voter turnout - which had the poll been done correctly, would have counted far more younger voters, and thus greatly increased Obama's lead. So Hibbets doesn't give it any weight in terms of accuracy.

Be ready for a big blow out by Obama tomorrow.

[BeyondGeography]

2. There's a reason she fled for Kentucky before the weekend

[GarbagemanLB]

3. She has never broken 44, He never dropped below 50. And yet some here think she will win it.

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[thewiseguy]

5. She will win what?

:eyes:

[Aloha Spirit]

4. Thank you!

[cali]

6. I think we'll see an Obama win of 17+

but I'll take 13. I also think he'll lose KY by 25 but not by 35.

[Alhena]

7. What time should we expect results? Are they delayed with a mail-in vote?

[NotThisTime]

8. Where did this morning 4% point poll come from?

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

10. It only polled Clinton supporters.

[speedoo]

12. Yeah. Another "collapse" in some folks' dreams goes "poof".

Maybe after tomorrow we won't be entertained by such silly stuff anymore.

[bluestateguy]

11. I say the O-Man wins Oregon 58%-42%

nt