Survey of Trial Heat Polls

[Inland]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Survey of presidential polls--Kerry leads in all but the CNN/Gallup/USA poll, some by more than MOE.

Site is good resource for survey of publically announced polling.

[lancdem]

1. CNN was definitely an outlier

The most recent polls have Kerry up by as many as 8.

[Inland]

2. Too bad CNN out first, pubbies still claiming no bounce

[TruthIsAll]

3. Here is more info..

										
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES 										
										
48.60%	 Average (mean) of most recent 15 national polls
									
4.85%	+ Kerry 70% allocation of undecided/other									
53.45%	 = Projected Kerry vote									
										
97.95%	Kerry probability of at least 50% of popular
vote									
										
______				Kerry%	Kerry% undecided/other 					
______	Date	Kerry	Bush	2-party	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	
										
TIME	807	51	43	54.3	54.0	54.6	55.2	55.8	56.4	
FOX	804	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9	
CNN/GAL	801	48	48	50.0	50.0	50.4	50.8	51.2	51.6
LAT	721	48	46	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4
PEW	718	46	44	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0
									
IBD	806	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
CBS	730	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
DEMC	805	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
ABC/WP	802	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
NWK	730	52	44	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6
									
ZOGBY	729	48	43	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1
AP	806	48	45	51.6	51.5	52.2	52.9	53.6	54.3
NBC/WSJ	721	45	47	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2
ARG	801	49	45	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4
QPAC	722	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9
									
Mean	_____	48.6	44.5	52.2	52.1	52.8	53.5	54.1	54.8	
Prob______	______      90.6	88.9	94.9	97.9	99.3	99.8	
MoE	3.31									
Std	1.69									
										
										
95% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	51.9	47.8	55.5	55.4	56.1	56.8	57.5	58.2	
Min	______	45.3	41.2	48.9	48.8	49.4	50.1	50.8	51.5	
x	______	47.8	47.8	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0	
Prob>x______	68.6	2.5	90.6	88.9	94.9	97.9	99.3	99.8	
										
99% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	53.0	48.8	56.6						
Min	______	44.2	40.1	47.9						
x	______	48.8	48.8	50.0						
Prob>x	______	44.6	0.5	90.6					
									
									
									
95% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 1.96 * StdP									
Min = Mean - 1.96 * StdP									
									
99% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 2.58 * StdP									
Min = Mean - 2.58 * StdP									
									

[Inland]

4. Hey, Ph.D in Stats! Give the dummies a break! LOL!

Tell us what to think, at least!