116 and 15.5

[AllentownJake]

116 Delegates to go till the nomination.

15.5 Delegates till we have the majority of Pledge Delegates.

Lets hope this is the last week of there really being any kind of doubt about who are nominee is.

[99th_Monkey]

1. As an Oregon Obama voter, I'll second that.

Plus I was born in KY, so for me Tuesday is a "double-header" which will
put Obama over the top..

WOOT!!

:party:

[MonkeyFunk]

2. Can someone explain

the relevance of "a majority of the pledged delegates"? I see people keep touting it, but what does it really mean? Is it the symbolism of it that's got you so excited?

[MadBadger]

3. We think that Once he clinches that, the nomination should be his

Many superdelegates, including Nancy Pelosi agree.

[AZ Criminal JD]

5. Those are not the rules Obama agreed to before he entered the campaign.

[MadBadger]

6. Did I agree to any rules?

We think that Superdelegates should uphold the winner of the pledged delegates.

[Czolgosz]

7. The rules Hillary and Obama agreed to are that the super delegates can choose whatever criteria they

deem most appropriate.

About a dozen of the unpledged super delegates have explicitly chosen this as the deciding criteria. Many others cite this as one important criteria to consider.

That's the rules Hillary agreed to.

[Gore1FL]

14. Actually, he did-- the rule is the Supers get to decide the criteria for their vote

And many have staked it to pledged delegate lead.

[Occam Bandage]

4. Two reasons. First, it unlocks the Pelosi Club, and those are some powerful endorsements.

Second, the symbolism is rather powerful--it means that Obama has won the aspect of the nomination process that is voter-controlled.

[rocktivity]

8. Once Obama picks up 16 more pledged delegates (which he should from KY on Tuesday)

Hillary will be mathematically eliminated because a) it will be impossible for her to get more pledged delegates than him and b) he's already clinched the superdelegate lead.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Bill McBlueState]

36. not "mathematically eliminated"

That would mean that absolutely no scenario exists for Clinton to win the nomination.

But superdelegates can change their minds.

I don't think that will happen in the requisite numbers, but because it can happen, it's inaccurate to say she'll be mathematically eliminated.

[OzarkDem]

10. Its meaningless

The requirement is 2025 for automatic nomination. That hasn't happened and won't.

[AllentownJake]

16. Every time another SD endorses

The closer we come. We need 31 by my calculations and current polling for us to reach 2025. Hillary needs over 200.

[Gore1FL]

17. at least not for a few more days or weeks

this will certainly jump start it though.

[Zhade]

23. Keep dreaming, Obama will have earned the nomination once you wake up.

NT!

[OzarkDem]

24. If it happens, count me out

I'll support Democrats farther down the ticket, but Obama doesn't need my money, support or vote. He and his supporters have made that abundantly clear.

Good luck!

[Zachstar]

26. Please get the hell off of DU then and kiss goodbye to Roe Vs Wade

[JMDEM]

33. who the hell you going to vote for? McCain?

If so, get the hell off DU.

[pnorman]

35. "Obama doesn't need my money, support or vote"

I can understand thje "money" part, but "support or vote"???? Do you REALLY mean that? Do you feel that FOUR MORE YEARS of Bush, Cheney, & Halliburton is a cheap price to pay for "Hillary in 2012?"

pnorman

[AllentownJake]

39. Goodbye

Welcome to ignore.

[anigbrowl]

12. A lot of SDs are waiting for a majority of PDs to emerge so they can endorse the winner

It has been covered in the news, you know.

[Zachstar]

29. Bingo!

[grantcart]

15. At that point he will have a majority of the delegates selected by

primary or caucuses. For many it is an important psychological barrier. Many Super Delegates have indicated that they plan to support the candidate with the most pledged delegates. Included in this group are several prominent Super Delegates, Speaker Pelosi, Presdident Carter, Senator Cantwell. The exact number is not known but is not less than 10 super delegates and could be several dozen.

On Tuesday Senator Obama will reach that mark - ( he needs only 15) and also get around 60 pledged delegates minimum (out of 125). With the so called Pelosi Delegates he will be only about 30 delegates away from 2025.

[TheDoorbellRang]

19. There are several super delegates that have said

that they will endorse the candidate who has the majority of the pledged delegates.

[Zachstar]

27. Its the point at which It becomes impossible for Clinton to retake the pledged delegate lead.

Even if she won the 3 upcoming primaries after the 20th by 100 percent.

[krispos42]

38. The more pledged delegates you get, the fewer superdelegates you need

The race between Clinton and Obama is too close for either to win the total delegate count without getting a few supers. Right now, CNN has this count for the candidates:

Obama:
1,612 pledged out of 3,253 (49.55%, 1,627 needed for majority)
292 supers out of 796 (36.68%, 399 needed for majority)

Clinton:
1,443 pledged out of 3,253 (44.36%, 1,627 needed for majority)
274 supers out of 796 (34.42%, 399 needed for majority)

Up for grabs:
198 pledged out of 3,253 (6.09%)
230 supers out of 796 (28.80%)
428 combined out of 4,049 combined (10.57%)

[OzarkDem]

9. Til 2025?

Is Obama that close to getting 2025 delegates?

[rocktivity]

11. He needs only 116 total delegates to hit 2025.

The first 16 pledged delegates Obama picks up on Tuesday (most likely from KY) will clinch the pledged delegate lead. Add a conservative estimate of 29 pledged delegates from OR, he'll need only 71 more, which he could get in superdelegates before the DNC's meeting about MI and FL on May 31.

Hillary needs 305 total delegates to get to 2025. To stop Obama from clinching the pledged delegate lead on Tuesday, she'll have to get 85.5% of the vote in both contests.

:headbang:
rocknation

[AllentownJake]

13. 1909

and that isn't counting the two Hillary Pledged delegates that switched. If he picks up 50 tuesday,
15 from SD and Montana and 20 from Puerto Rico which is likely.

He will be at 1994. That means he will need 31 SD or about 14% of the remaining Super Delegates.

[Gore1FL]

18. You mean 18.

2925 - 2007 = 18

[AllentownJake]

22. Oops

Forgot to update the 2007 when I realized SD and MT had less delegates.

[Yukari Yakumo]

30. I presume that PR number is viewing things as a worst case scenario

However, with it being a week after Obama clinches the PD majority and PR's political machinery supporting Obama, I think it would be far, far closer than the 65-35 in favor of HRC.

[AllentownJake]

31. Everything

is a worse case scenario in my projection.

[anigbrowl]

20. Yes, he is that close.

He'll probably pick up 45-50 pledged delegates on Tueday, and since he's only got to pick up 15 to have won a majority of pledged delegates, he'll pick up another 8 superdelegates from 'the Pelosi club':

Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA) <- already backed Clinton but had said she'd switch if Obama won a majority of PDs
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA)
Christine Pelosi (CA)
Former President Jimmy Carter (GA) (added 5/1)
Betty Richie (TX) (added 3/30)
Denise Johnson (TX) (added 4/6)

Rep. Zoe Lofgren (CA) <- these already backed Obama but had said they'd switch if Clinton won a majority of PDs
Sen. Tom Daschle (SD)

[Zhade]

21. Gobama!

NT!

[Bensthename]

25. Does Hillary really go to bed at night thinking she still has a chance?

:redbox: :redbox: :redbox:

[AllentownJake]

28. Well if she can convince

90% of the remaining superdelegates, I guess she still can.

This is all for vanity at this point. I don't buy the finance reason. She's bleading more than she's taking in flying from KY to OR, SD to PR.

[Yukari Yakumo]

32. Yes.

I think she's rapidly approaching moving in to her own personal Sunset Boulevard.

I think she totally miscalculated when to exit, and now her political future now depends on Obama's success. If the "HRC in '12" meme stayed isolated in various corners of the net, she could've brushed off any criticism that she stayed in to ensure Obama's loss. Unfortunately for her, the "HRC in '12" meme made it to the mainstream. And now, regardless if warranted or not, should Obama lose in November, she'll certainly get a share of the blame. Her hopes for any future runs goes in the toilet.

[MindMatter]

34. If Obama were to lose in November

She would be only slightly more popular than Ralph Nader. There would be endless arguments that she really didn't hurt Obama, but most people don't buy those arguments from Nader.

For her own sake, she had better hope that Obama wins big. Then she can argue she helped toughen him up for the big GOP fight and everybody goes away smiling.

[AllentownJake]

37. She won't be able to run in 2012

regardless. She won't have the advantages she had this year. Her fundraising would be terrible. Rightly or Wrongly democrats do not reward the people that lost with another shot.