8/8 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 97.97% VOTE: 53.20% EV: 330

[TruthIsAll]

								
ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL								
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								
								
								
NATIONAL POLL AVERAGE AND PROJECTIONS (%)								
National model - based on 15 polls								
State model proj. - based on latest state polls								
Projections assume 70% of undecided/other to Kerry								
								
______Curr.Proj. Proj. Comb.				
______Nat. Nat. State Proj. EV			
Kerry:48.60 53.45 52.95 53.20 330	
Bush :44.47 46.55 47.05 46.80 208	
Diff : 4.13  6.91  5.90  6.41 122	
Und/oth:6.93					
						
WIN PROBABILITIES (%)						
Current Prob. assumes current split of undec/other						
Proj. Probabilities assumes 70% undec/other to Kerry						
						
______Nat. Model	State	Comb.		
______Curr.	Proj.	Proj.	Proj.		
Kerry:90.55	 97.95 98.00 97.97		
Bush: 9.45	 2.05  2.00 2.03		
						
						
NATIONAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
Impact of various Kerry undecided/other allocations						

Alloc:50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	
Vote:	52.07	52.76	53.45	54.15	54.84	
Prob:	 88.92 	 94.87 	 97.95 	 99.29 	 99.79 	
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
One thousand  (1000) trials are run in each simulation.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.				
						
Kerry:	52.03%	of the vote.				
Wins :	92.8%	of 1000 election trials. 				
Avg  :	313	electoral votes.				
Max  :	392	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 			
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	52.95%	of the vote.	
Wins :	98.0%	of 1000 election trials. 	
Avg  :	330	electoral votes.	
Max  :	408	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	80%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	53.88%	of the vote.	
Wins :	99.7%	of 1000 election trials. 		
Avg  :	348	electoral votes.		
Max  :	441	electoral votes.		
				
				


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS				
(in millions of votes)				
Dem	138.78	52.61%		
Rep	125.03	47.39%		

				

BUSH JOB APPROVAL				
The data source is PollingReport.com    				
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	48.00	48	47	47	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	49
Aug	45.86	45	44	48	na	na	44	47	na	na	49	44
												
												
												
												
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE TREND												
Based on latest national polls from:												
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME						
Data source: PollingReport.com    						
						
						
Kerry projected vote equals the poll average						
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.						
						
	Avg Poll Trend		Projection			
2004	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	44.00	49.40	-5.40	46.45	53.56	-7.11
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	52.60	47.40	5.20
Mar	48.57	44.00	4.57	53.77	46.23	7.54
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	52.80	47.20	5.60
May	47.75	44.00	3.75	53.53	46.48	7.05
June	47.14	44.71	2.43	52.84	47.16	5.69
July	48.11	45.00	3.11	52.93	47.07	5.87
Aug	49.71	43.71	6.00	54.31	45.69	8.63							
													
													
													
KERRY NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES
													
													
48.60%	 Average (mean) of most recent 15 national polls
												
4.85%	+ Kerry 70% allocation of undecided/other												
53.45%	 = Projected Kerry vote												
													
97.95%	Kerry probability of at least 50% of popular
vote												
													
______				Kerry%	Kerry% undecided/other 								
______	Date	Kerry	Bush	vs.Bush	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%				
													
TIME	807	51	43	54.3	54.0	54.6	55.2	55.8	56.4				
FOX	804	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9
CNN/GAL	801	48	48	50.0	50.0	50.4	50.8	51.2	51.6
LAT	721	48	46	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4
PEW	718	46	44	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0
									
IBD	806	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
CBS	730	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
DEMC	805	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
ABC/WP	802	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
NWK	730	52	44	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6
									
ZOGBY	729	48	43	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1
AP	806	48	45	51.6	51.5	52.2	52.9	53.6	54.3
NBC/WSJ	721	45	47	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2
ARG	801	49	45	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4
QPAC	722	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9
										
Mean	______	48.60	44.47	52.22	52.07	52.76	53.45	54.15	54.84	
Prob	______	______	______	90.55	88.92	94.87	97.95	99.29	99.79	
										
MoE: 3.31%
Std: 1.69%
										
95% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	51.91	47.78	55.53	55.38	56.07	56.77	57.46	58.15	
Min	______	45.29	41.15	48.91	48.75	49.45	50.14	50.83	51.53	
x	______	47.78	47.78	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	
Prob>x	______	68.62	2.50	90.55	88.92	94.87	97.95	99.29	99.79	
										
99% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	52.96	48.83	56.58						
Min	______	44.24	40.11	47.86						
x	______	48.83	48.83	50.00					
Prob>x	______	44.63	0.49	90.55					
									
									
								
									
95% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 1.96 * StdP								
Min = Mean - 1.96 * StdP									
									
99% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 2.58 * StdP									
Min = Mean - 2.58 * StdP									
								
								
								
								
								
								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry National and State Vote Projections								
State vote%: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.								
National vote%:Weighted sum of projected % state
votes.								
Probability of a state win is based on projected %
vote.								


Most Likely Case								
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry													
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV										
Kerry	98.0%	53.0%	330										
Bush	2.0%	47.0%	208										

Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
													
Dem Hist. is Democratic share of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.													
													
______	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV (election trials 1-10 of 1000)
									
______	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.60%	52.95%	98.00%	339	327	291	330	311	375	332	334	315	303
													
AL	44.8	41.0	0.0										
AK	37.6	40.7	0.0										
AZ	48.8	49.9	49.0	10	10	10			10	10	10		
AR	55.2	50.2	52.0	6	6				6			6	
CA	57.4	57.3	96.6	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1		9				9			9	9
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	89.5	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	54.9	89.0	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	27	
													
GA	47.6	45.9	15.3								15		
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	58.9	98.7	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3							11			
													
IA	51.8	52.2	70.9		7		7	7	7	7	7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8										
KY	46.7	46.2	17.1						8			8	
LA	49.2	44.4	8.1	9									
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7				4		4	4	4		
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	65.8	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	56.9	95.8	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	52.6	74.2	10				10	10		10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	51.1	60.8		11	11	11		11	11		11	11
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	51.3	62.7		5	5		5		5		5	5
NH	51.7	55.3	90.7	4	4	4		4	4	4	4		4
													
NJ	56.5	62.8	99.9	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	54.9	89.0	5		5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.5	26.6	15	15		15						
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	48.9	39.2										
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3										
OR	53.6	52.8	75.8	7		7	7	7	7	7	7		7
PA	54.2	55.2	90.3	21	21		21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	67.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6			8	8			8			
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7										
TN	50.5	50.2	52.0	11	11		11	11	11	11			
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2						34				
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	49.9	49.0	13		13	13	13			13		13
WA	55.9	55.2	90.3	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV	54.0	53.6	81.6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5		5
WI	52.7	51.9	68.3								10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.60%	52.95%	98.00%	339	327	291	330	311	375	332	334	315	303

[daveskilt]

1. how likely is the 70% of undecided giong to kerry?

especially with nader in the race I would guess a larger proportion of the undecideds who don't vote nader lean toward bush.

did you run a projection on 50% or 40%?

[TruthIsAll]

3. Look at the National Prob. Sensitivity analysis of 50-90% alloc.

It is very likely at least 70% of Nader voters will go to Kerry (and that is conservative). I expect Nader will get 1% max.

Prob. is 90.55% assuming undecideds split proportional to current polling and 88.92% assuming 50/50 split.

TIA

[daveskilt]

4. missed that - but with your wacky electoral college who knows?

I see kerry only needs to get 32% of the undecideds to get to 50% of the popular vote but I would love to see a state by state breakdown for lower undecided for kerry rates, since you americans still have the wacky electoral college to thwart democracy.

[dbt]

2. Props, TIA!

You KNOW these projections have got to be driving KKKarl Rove frothing mad. (And you KNOW someone from the WH is watching your numbers!)

:bounce:
dbt

[napi21]

5. This is where most of the polls are wrong.

As far as I know, all the major polls are using the 5 of voters to be the same this year as it was in 2000. I think there are a lot of people who didn't bother to vote in 2000 because: they were tired of all the Pub harrassment of BC for 8 years; they really didn't see much of a difference between the 2 candidates; life is pretty good, so who cares, etc. I think most of them have changed their minds now. There are more Dems in the Country than Pubs, and more of those Dems are going to vote this year. If I'm right, Kerry will win by a much bigger margin than the current polls indicate.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Data from Electoral-vote.com and PollingReport.com

tia

[TruthIsAll]

7. Even Larry Sabato is admitting that Bush is Toast....

tia