Alright, electoral run-down

[Guaranteed]

I'm just looking at that http://www.electoral-vote.com/, where at the moment Kerry has a commanding lead in EVs.

However, the site breaks down the leads visually into "strong," "weak," and "barely." The states with strong leads we can be pretty sure Kerry is going to win (barring something drastic happening). You can look at the site to check out the size of his lead. These states are:

California (55 EV)
Connecticut (7)
D.C. (3)
Delaware (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17) <---I'm not so confident on this one, for some reason
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)

Add those up and we've got 185 pretty darned solid EVs, which leaves us with 85 more to get to 270 and the win.

My question is: with these new numbers, which battleground/weak Kerry states are most likely to go to Kerry? Which are the surest states that will get us those 85 EVs?

[City Lights]

1. Your link is bad.

Looks like there's an extra comma in it.

[Guaranteed]

5. Alright, try this one

www.electoral-vote.com

[tedoll78]

2. I'll try this one out..

I have strong confidence in:
Pennsylvania (21)
Washington (11)
Oregon (7)
New Mexico (5)
Minnesota (10)
Maine (4)

That's 58 more EVs, leaving 27.

I have some worries about, but they're definitely do-able:
Nevada (5)
Iowa (7)
Wisconsin (10)
West Virginia (5)
New Hampshire (4)

That's 31 more EVs. If we can get the following, that'd be nice insurance for a victory:
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
Missouri (11)
Tennessee (11)

That's 69 more EVs. I'm a skeptic about those states, but something tells me that the odds of us peeling off one of the four is in our corner at this point.

[featherman]

3. My early analysis...maybe a bit generous to Kerry but not much

My approach is past actual vote with historical and demographic trends supported by (or adjusted to) current multiple state census and polling data analysis. According to this model, 1992 was a kind of watershed election for party identification and that the parties split into culturally distinct geographic regions of power.

The DEM strongholds are the Pacific States (HI, CA, OR, WA), Upper Midwest (IL, MI, WI, MN, IA), and the Northeast/Mid Atlantic (DC, MD, WV, PA, DE, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, NH, VT, ME). This three region coalition of 22 states (inc DC) was a winning 270 EV’s in 2000 but represents a smaller 264 EV's this year It needs 6 more EV’s in 2004 for a majority. All of these states have voted DEM for the past three elections (with the fatal exception of WV and NH in 2000). Bush leads in none at this point this year although some are close.

Opposed is the GOP base: AK, ID, UT, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KA, OK, TX, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, IN. Essentially much of the Confederacy, the Plains, and the Mountain States: 18 states with 151 EV's.

Up for grabs and depending on effort and money are the Swing States which are basically the group of states that have voted DEM 1-3 times of the past three elections. Most share a common border with both a GOP and DEM base state and some are trending DEM and some GOP: Southwest Swing (NV, CO, AZ, NM) Midwest Swing (MO, OH, KY) and Southern Swing (TN, AR, LA, FL). 11 states with 112 votes. (There are some anomalies like MT and GA that voted DEM in 1992 but are not included since they seem solidly GOP now).

Bush's big problem, then, is that I doubt he can make much headway with the core DEM 22 against a competitive, well funded candidate and with a weakened Nader candidacy. In the end, it is my opinion that all will vote DEM, some more closely than others, for 264 EVs.

Caveats:
This model requires level playing field (matched spending and effort, no Kerry scandal, no effective October surprise, etc).
I attribute most of the closeness on the 2000 vote in OR, IA, MN, WI, PA and the loss of WV and NH to a combination of above average Nader strength in all those states and a somewhat depressed DEM turnout (Clinton scandal, media-caricatured Gore, apparently harmless "compassionate conservative" Bush, shrinking Gore finances, unopposed NRA effort, local issues, etc)

My call at this early date (assuming the level playing field):
Kerry gets his 22 “base” for 264 plus NV, AZ, NM, MO, OH, FL = 342
Bush gets his 18 “base” for 151 plus CO, AR, LA, TN, KY = 196

Popular Vote: Kerry 51%, Bush 46%, Nader, Libertarian, & other 3%

[Literate Tar Heel]

4. I was just playing with an electoral map actually

I don't think Kerry wins Florida no matter how many people vote for him there ... I just don't trust them ... also, Arizona and Nevada don't look so good to me ... frighteningly, when I split up the states how I feel they will go (but I'm a bit of a cynic so I really only gave Kerry the states I felt pretty sure about), I end up with a 269-269 tie

[DaveinMD]

6. it has to be close

for them to steal it. In fact it has to be within one percent.

[Bucky]

14. No, it doesn't. Polls in 2000 showed Bush clearly ahead, Gore catching up

Gore performed better in the vote than the polls showed in 2000. He was about 2-3% down by most polls, yet took a plurality by 0.5% that year. A similar mismatch between expectations and results can be hand waved away by Bush loyalists who will run the elections in Florida, Ohio, and a couple of other swing states.

[TXDemGal]

15. I got a 269-269 tie when I was playing

with an EV vote counter site today, too. In the event of a tie, what happens? Does it go to the House of Reps (i.e., Rethugs) or will the Felonious Five appoint BushCo again?

[Literate Tar Heel]

16. house of reps ... n/t

[Endangered Specie]

7. My take on it:

I think these will be no-brainers (he must win these):
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Oregon
Washington
Pennsylvania
Thats an extra 59.

These are likely
New Mexico
Maine
New Hampshire
Missouri
Thats 24, +59 = 83

Thats leaves two more from:
Iowa
West Va
Florida
-unfortunately I dont trust any of those three to hold Kerry. But we only need 1 of them.

Unlikely, but you never know:
Ohio
Tenessee
Nevada
Arizone
Virginia
North Carolina

-again, only 2 more electoral votes needed.

[Guaranteed]

8. That's about my take on it

except that I'm not as hopeful about Missouri, and I'm a bit more hopeful about Ohio....

[featherman]

9. don't dismiss Nevada. I like it to go Kerry by about +2

It went for Clinton twice and was close enough in 2004 with zero effort by Gore. Trending Dem as Las Vegas grows to a metropolis with influx of minority voters and SoCal escapees. More DEMS registering than GOP since 2000. Socially liberal (I mean...this is Las Vegas). Heavily third party but those voters will split split between Nader and Libertarians in upstate counties and come from both GOP and DEM columns...a wash. Union presence in miners, truckers, service workers, and teachers. The "sagebrush" GOPer's are a diminishing force. Finally EVERYBODY is angry with the Bush admin over Yucca Mountain.
Arizona is far from a long shot as well. Kerry polling well there. Keep and eye on that one.

[Kukesa]

17. Ohio, unlikely?

Oh, I hope not. Here in southwestern Ohio we're working like mad to assure Kerry-Edwards take this battleground state.

Don't forget Gore pulled out of Ohio early and that event may have cost him the election.

We'll keep working until we drop.

Check out Ohio under the State Forums to get a taste of what a good group we are.

To victory in Ohio!

[featherman]

10. People seem nervous about Iowa

Iowa ain't Nebraska, folks. A close election in 2000 (mostly due to Nader vote) and a couple of nearly tied polls and suddenly "eek..the sky is falling". Iowa has voted DEM for FOUR straight elections. Why on earth would a solid DEM state like this suddenly decide that "Bush is the One"? With a popular DEM governor and First Lady? With MUCH time to look over Kerry in the primaries? I'd love to be solidly up by +8 in every poll (as one did show) but, in the end, I believe we can bring Iowa to the DEM side again. May be closer than I'd like again.
Wisconsin worries me more. Keeping an eye on that one. Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota are more solid.

[quaoar]

11. I don't see it as that close

I think Kerry will end up carrying a few surpises:
Colorado, Arkansas and Tennessee.

[sampsonblk]

12. Pennsylvania is going for Kerry

Gov Rendell will deliver. Last time, we had a GOP governor (who has been rewarded nicely). This time, we have one of the best organizers and one of the ablest political minds around.

Plus, IMHO, Bush's support here is dipping among the hardcore religious types. The pictures from Iraq are not bringing Jesus to mind, and that's seeming to get a little old. Just my opinion from reading and listening to people in Central PA.

[Bucky]

13. Michigan is not a lock yet, but it's a very strong blue-leaner

The right attitude to be right now is "cautiously optimistic." If you're confident of a Kerry victory, you're a dreamer, an airhead. If you're pessimistic or expecting an October surprise to matter much, you're a party pooper. The right answer is "cautiously optimistic."