Do you anticipate Chimpy getting a post convention bounce?

[CatWoman]

and will it be big enough to overcome Kerry's lead?

[k in IA]

1. Fifteen point bounce. Its should happen and if they don't get it then

their convention was a failure.

;)

[doctorbombeigh]

5. <snicker> Exactly so!

[Guaranteed]

11. I'm expecting a 25-point bounce. nt

[tishaLA]

15. Only 25??!!

I expect him to deliver the speech of his life. It will be focused, detailed, complex, and it will appeal to virtually all women and "minorities" in the US. He will speak Spanish for several minutes, too.

Coming on the heels of the unveiling of the new Dick Cheney, it will be unbeatable. Some don't know this yet, but Dick has been working out HARD and getting hair transplants. When he appears at the convention, he's going to be 175 lbs of well-coiffed man-muscle.

[Guaranteed]

19. ROFL! nt

[UAWONE]

2. Bounce

Yes , he will get a bounce

[Zynx]

3. Virtually nothing. Maybe 1-2 points.

[k in IA]

4. The computer said the first one didn't go through but it did. Nevermind.

[NMDemDist2]

6. pollsters agree there are only about 3% undecided voters left

what's to bounce?

17% say they may change their minds about their candidates so he may pick up a couple points. Unless he does something really stupid (which is entirely within the realm of probability for him) at which point Kerry will lead into the debates and never look back

sweet huh?

[Nite Owl]

7. Logically speaking I would think

with all the attention on someone who is totally out of touch with the needs of the American people I could see him losing points. But the media is so in his corner he might just get some kind of bounce. I also have the image, I think from Jon Stewart, of OBL being brought up the aisles of MSG in chains before the Chimps speech.

[Shoeempress]

8. I'm looking forward to hearing McCain

With his request that Chimpy condemn the Swift Boat ad and Chimpy's refusal to do so, combined with McCain's close relationship with Kerry, not to mention the slimy treatment he received from Chimpy in S.C., it could make for a very interesting speech. One I might bother to watch.

[West Coast Democrat]

9. He probably will get a bounce....

but he has a lot of ground to make up as it is. I'm sure the Gallup poll will show * ahead by 5 or something implausible like that (they were hugely far off in 2000)...the others will put * closer to Kerry, or perhaps tied.

However, I don't think * will have any momentum to sustain any bounce, as there are no signs of improvement in the economy or the situation in Iraq. He's already convinced many people that he will use terrorist threats as a political tool, so many will distrust any terror warnings on the horizon.

[bucknaked]

10. Should be no diff than the SOTU, or his last stutter-fest press conf...

Unlike Kerry, this country is pretty damn familiar with Bush. Due to Sept. 11th, and now Iraq, I'd say he's probably the most well-known incumbent in recent history, which is why I feel Kerry's lead (or even being tied with the man) in the polls is huge.

[Demeter]

12. A Bounce All the Way to Texas! YEEHAH!

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. Bush needs a bounce to maintain the pretense of viability.

If Bush doesn't get a 10-15% bounce out of the convention, it will start to become undeniable that he is headed for defeat.

[CatWoman]

14. I'm thinking it has always been about the pretense

of viability.

The press has been working overtime in promoting this charade.

I remember reading that they did the same when Clinton whupped Poppy.

[tom22]

17. I think the stock market is telling us something

The Bush numbers will mirror the market's plummet. August and September are often ugly months when there isn't a Bush in power. I think we can start throwing parties in Mid September. It should be over by then.

[Pepperbelly]

16. The gopcon could very well be overplayed ... these guys ...

have lost their ear.

They could slather it on so thickly that it makes everyone gag.

:hi:

[Toots]

18. Maybe if a million protesters camp at his doorstep he may get

a sympathy bounce of a few points but other than that I expect a Kerry bounce from their convention.

[elperromagico]

20. Ask yourself these questions:

1. How many people didn't know John Kerry - or where he stood on the issues - prior to the Democratic National Convention and his acceptance speech?

2. How many people don't know George W. Bush or where he stands on the issues right now, prior to the RNC?

3. How many undecided voters are suddenly going to have a change of heart about George W. Bush now, after seeing him as President for nearly four years?

After you answer those questions, reach your own conclusions.

[CatWoman]

21. my friend

if logic is ANY indicator, Bush would never have made it to the White House.

[elperromagico]

22. Logic had nothing to do with it, my friend.

Bush's entrance into the White House had to do with bullying strong-arm tactics. The corrupt have no need of logic. In fact, logic is their enemy. Logic is what destroys them.

And if logic is no indicator, why are we even speculating as to Bush's potential bounce? ;)

[robcon]

23. I expect Bush to take the lead after their convention

I expect Kerry will regain the lead after the debates.

[CatWoman]

26. because it's logical that he will get some sort of bounce

[mvd]

24. No more than Kerry's

I know he fooled a lot of people with his acceptance speech in 2000, but it will be harder this time, even if this convention's acceptance speech is as well-scripted.

[DaveinMD]

25. they'll get a bounce

let's not be naive. It will likely even up the race, unless shrub blows his speech big time.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

28. He needs 10-15%

is he up to the task?

[DaveinMD]

29. that

he won't get. I anticipate a small bounce to even up the race for about one week.

[Window]

27. I can't imagine any bounce...

at least, nothing significant. However, with the pundits and lying-assed media, who knows.

[Piperay]

30. At least 20%

and if he gets any less than that then the whole convention was a failure. BWAHAHAHAHA

[Perky]

31. No bounce at all

and the ratings will suck including tha acceptance speech.

[LynneSin]

32. Murdoch has already wrote the 'talking points' memo...

...there will be a bounce or you will be bounced....FROM YOUR JOB!

[DaveSZ]

33. Let's hope he says he'll harm us again

nt

[PATRICK]

34. They will find one

( a poll that is) if it is there(it will be) or make one if there is not. They will claim all the excuses denied Kerry to keep up the fantasy until some terror smokescreen floats by. The Dems did not try to create a bounce perception. It was media expectation played counterintuitively against the obvious situation. For the GOP it will be all they can do.

The media will help and it won't matter a damn to the eventual vote.

[Scorpious_Maximus]

35. The Media will play it that way.

Count on that.