Here's What I Think is Happening with the Polls

[On the Road]

The convention was criticized as being vacuous, emphasizing personality, unity and symbolism over policy. This was intentional. The Democrats sang that convention. There was a chorus hailing Kerry as a strong charismatic leader, a tower of strength. Kerry's own speech exorcised the image painted by the GOP. The bump was not complete, however, until the newly defined Kerry could be seen head-to-head against Bush.

Kerry is now a credible and trustworthy figure. His words carry more weight. People can imagine him as president, and believe he will carry through. Kerry and Edwards are having fun and look confident and energized. Having established his character and party leadership in the convention, Kerry is in a better position to start proposing specific policies.

For example, I heard a Kerry-Edwards campaign stop in rural Missouri on CSPAN radio. Pig farmers were complaining about the problems of waste from commercial pig farms. Kerry and Edwards were specific, thoughtful, and convincing about the environmental, regulatory, and financial aspects of this very narrow issue. Edwards's wife even said that she had worked in bankruptcies in NC and had known many pig farmers experiencing the questioners difficulties. It was a Clinton "I feel your pain" moment. There will be many of these moments, and they will accumulate.

By contrast, Bush has looked particularly weak and inept lately. He is obviously under great political pressure and is not up to the campaign, much less running the country. The comparison is striking.

The one thing that has kept Bush up is his carefully crafted image as a strong popular leader. Seen side-by-side with Kerry the last week, this image is slowly evaporating, along with Bush's best hope for reelection.

[NMDemDist2]

1. that's as good as an analysis as I've heard yet

now we just need to GOTV for a landslide

[movonne]

2. I love it...sure sounds good to me. Lets hope they cannot come

back.

[childslibrarian]

3. It is absolutely amazing

How much respect you can command by actually knowing what you are doing...
Kerry was our senator for years and he is a very knowledgeable fellow... Edwards also knows the rural way of life both from a lawyer's point of view and a North Carolinian.
And by contrast, Bush knows nothing, having never really worked in his life..

[blm]

4. Well stated, ribofunk.

Very intuitive. Kerry is finally catching attention and was introducing himself to most of the American people at the convention.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

5. I've noticed some head-to-head match ups

or pretty close to them, anyway, with both of them talking in the same town on the same day or adjoining days. It gives people a chance to directly compare the two men.

For example, when Kerry made a speech at the Unity Journalists of Color Convention his opening remarks were about the role of the press in our society:

As Americans, we are living in a time transformed by 9/11. Ongoing conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan – and repeated increases in threat levels – are constant reminders that our soldiers and our homeland are still in harm’s way. As journalists, you are operating in that new world. Yet I also believe enduring principles apply here: We won’t win this struggle by hiding or ignoring the facts. You have a part to play – not as partisans, but as truth-tellers. Because the key to victory in the war on terror is not just the power of our arms, but the power of our ideals.

The information, the commentary, the debate that you bring to the eyes and ears of America – and the world – are critical to an informed public, critical to making the right decisions, and critical to correcting the wrong ones.

We are in this fight because we are a democracy. We must win it as a democracy. And one of the most powerful weapons in the arsenal of our democracy is the freedom of the press.

You have another great power and privilege in this decisive time. As Americans prepare to decide the direction of our free society – not just for the next four years, but perhaps for decades to come, you will report and referee the arena of a great national campaign.
with respect and his answers were clear and to the point.


The next day, * addressed the same group. Here's how he sees the role of the press:

I appreciate the chance to -- I deal with my press corps on a regular basis. It's a beneficial -- it's a mutual beneficial society. See, I need them to get the message out, and they need me to be a messenger. And we're working hard to make sure that our relationship is cordial and professional. And that's how I feel about coming here, too -- to establish a cordial and professional relationship with people who help spread the news.

Other than the fact that being one who gets the messenge out and being a messenger are essentially identical -- especially if you're God's messenger -- it's clear that * does not see the press in its traditional role of asking the hard questions and gathering the facts. All they are supposed to do is pass on what they are given.

If you get a chance, look at how each man handled the Q & A part of the session. I truly can't believe any thinking person could vote for *.

[Guaranteed]

6. Great post.

And great job, Kerry.

I'm really surprised by how much the convention did for him. Things have a way of not going well for us, so I guess I was just pessimistic. But, you're right, he made himself a credible candidate. He's a real alternative, and Bush oughta scared as hell right now.

[KittyWampus]

11. Hard Not To Imagine How Things Would Be If Media Had Been Fair

at LEAST for the DNConvention.

It's like Kerry is moving ahead with both hands tied behind his back.

[newsguyatl]

7. great analysis

you're dead on.

[mbee]

8. I heard some journalist on the radio the other day talking about the fact

that up to 75% of the electorate (not sure if that's eligible voters or the population) was interested in this election. He said (I don't remember the person's name) that the viewing audience numbers for the debates would tell a great deal about the turn-out for the election or something to that effect.

[sleepyhead]

9. And the more people that see the debates

The better off we are! Kerry will chew Chimpy up and spit him out on the floor!

[Beetwasher]

10. Add To That That Both These Guys Aren't Lazy

Seriously...They will try to meet every single swing voter in every swing state and they'll do it competently. From now until the election, they will not rest....Bush on the otherhand, well, he's never done anything more than half assed in his whole life...