Bob Beckel: If Hillary Clinton Wants to be Veep, Obama Can't Stop Her

[oldpol]

Bob Beckel


Does Hillary Clinton want to be the Democrats vice presidential candidate? Probably. Could she get on the ticket by dropping out before the last states vote on June 3rd? Definitely not. Does Barack Obama want her on the ticket? Absolutely not. Can he stop her if she wants it? Probably not. Why not? Super delegates are why not.

When the last pledged delegates are totaled on June 3rd, and assuming the current demographic support continues for both candidates (and baring a major development they will), Barack Obama will have around 1690 delegates and Hillary Clinton around 1550. Add in their current super delegate support and Obama will have 1980 total delegates, and Clinton 1825.

There are roughly 235 undecided or unnamed super delegates, most of whom will pick sides before or shortly after June 3rd. Given the inevitability of his nomination Obama will get the lion share of these delegates. An educated guess would be 185 for Obama, 50 for Clinton. Final count; Obama 2165; Clinton 1875. (Assume Michigan and Florida will be seated and be an even split so we can leave the magic number at the current 2026).

It's all over. Obama will have about 54% of the delegates and Clinton 46%. (I know there are a few delegates missing. Some are Edwards, a few uncommitted, and a few refusing to decide- another wash). Hillary Clinton will have come up short by 150 votes. But this isn't horseshoes. That said she still comes in a very close second, which puts her among the closest runner-ups in Democratic Party history.

So Barack Obama is free to pick a running mate? Not so fast. Her losing margin of 150 is only 19% of the super delegates at the convention. Most of the 795 super delegates have been put under enormous pressure by both candidates for months. For those that chose Obama the decision was an especially painful one both personally and politically.

Almost all super delegates have had a long history with the Clintons. Many have only personally known Barack Obama a few months. Many who sided with Obama have benefited professionally, financially, and politically from their relationship with the Clintons. Many had jobs, and good ones, in the Clinton Administration. Many have been the recipients of tens of thousands of dollars raised on their behalf by the Clintons.

Can you imagine how hard it was for most of these super delegates to turn down the former president of the United States? It was tough enough turning Hillary down, but their former boss, political godfather, and personal friend? I've talked to many of them; trust me it was for most the hardest thing they have ever had to do in their political lives.

Just consider for a moment the final phone call with Bill Clinton when the super delegate had to tell him he or she had decided to go with Obama. Clinton," It's time to make a decision. Hillary needs you and I need you. We've been through a lot together. When you needed me I was there, now we need you".

Super delegate, "Mr. President, this is the hardest thing I've ever had to do, but I'm going with Obama because (whatever). Ask me for anything else Mr. President, but I've got to do this". Clinton, "I'm very disappointed and personally hurt, but do what you think you have to do. So long."

Now imagine its June 4th and Clinton calls again. Clinton, "I know Obama has enough votes to win, but I wanted you to know Hillary has decided to run for vice president at the convention. You know there are two roll call votes at the convention: first president then for vice president. I know you are voting for Obama for president. Fine, but I want your commitment to vote for Hillary for vice president."

You imagine being on the floor in Denver. Hillary's delegates, NEARLY HALF THE DELEGATES, are demanding she be on the ticket. These are true believers who have stuck with Clinton through thick and thin. To them, putting Hillary on the ticket is a crusade.

Most Clinton delegates are women, most Democratic voters are women, and they're going to just accept some middle aged white governor that Obama is rumored to want? No way. They are in your face. Hillary supporters from back home are jamming your Blackberry. This and more horror scenes flash through your mind in a nano second.

Then it occurs to you; if the roles were reversed and Obama came close to winning and wanted to be the vice presidential candidate, could you imagine the convention saying no?

Clinton," If we get your commitment now (we've already got a bunch of Obama super delegates to support her) we don't have to take a vote or fight in Denver. With Hillary's pledged delegates and a hundred or so super delegates we'll be over 2026 before the end of June. Saves Barack the hassle of picking a running mate and we can be united against McCain on day one."

Are you going to tell the former president of the United States no again? Anyway you convince yourself it's a great ticket and will help Obama in those big swing states. "I'm with you Mr. President". Clinton," I knew I could count on you". You want to bet there aren't 20% of the super delegates who would buy this deal? We're talking super delegates here, not profiles in courage.

If Hillary Clinton wants the vice presidential nomination, and her loyal delegates demand it, and the Clinton machine puts its full weight behind it, she will be on the ticket.

Count on it.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20080515/cm_rcp/if_clinton_wants_to_be_vp_obam

[islandmkl]

1. uhh....Bob...we are already telling the FORMER President of the United States: NO!!

let him slide back into retirement, and have him take all his '90s cronies with him...and let hillary get back to directing some traffic in the Senate, which is exactly what suits her best...

[WHAT]

21. NO

(in case he's HOH)

[bigdarryl]

2. some of these stupid ass pundits talk as if Hillary is some goddess

don't underestimate Obama he doesn't have to do shit and Michell has allegedly told Obama she won't be on the ticket

[Arugula Latte]

8. Don't you know she's the Goddess of Peace?!?!

:rofl:

[sniffa]

18. I thought it was the Goddess of Peas

EAT YOUR PEAS

[tritsofme]

17. The point is, Obama won't have freedom in picking his VP.

He may have to deal with who the party decides for him.

[AZ Criminal JD]

19. How many delegates does Mitchell have?

[MidwestTransplant]

26. Bob Beckell is only allowed on Faux as an pundit.

[global1]

3. If Hilliary Takes It To The Floor Of The Convention Whether It Be.....

for Pres or VP - it will sink the Dems hopes to win in November. Too much contention. Hilliary needs to do the gentlemanly thing now and 'eat some crow' if she ever thinks she will have a chance to run again in the future.

I think the Super's will tell Bill on the second call - that BO has the right to chose his own VP - seeing that he will have to work with him/her over the next 4 years - and that they will go with whomever BO wants. Sorry Bill - but that politics.

[Window]

15. I certainly hope so.

[FrenchieCat]

4. I think that if Obama picks Kathleen Sebelius, he will do better

She gov of Kansas, and her father was the Governor of Ohio.

She was born in Ohio and didn't leave till she was 26.

She's Catholic.

Sebelius was born and raised in a Catholic family in Cincinnati, Ohio. She attended the Summit Country Day School, a Roman Catholic secondary school, followed by Trinity Washington University, a Roman Catholic university in Washington, D.C., and later earned a Master of Public Administration degree from the University of Kansas. She moved to Kansas in 1974 at the age of 26, where she served for eight years as a representative in the Kansas Legislature and eight years as Insurance Commissioner before being elected governor.

Sebelius is the daughter of former Ohio governor John J. Gilligan, and thus they became the first father/daughter governor pair in the United States after her election.<3> Her husband K. Gary Sebelius<4> is a federal magistrate judge and the son of former U.S. Representative Keith Sebelius, a Republican. They have two sons. She also visits her childhood and current vacation home, located in Leland, Michigan, north of Traverse City, Michigan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Sebelius


Her dad:

John Joyce ("Jack") Gilligan (born March 22, 1921) is a Democratic politician from the U.S. state of Ohio who served as a U.S. Representative and the 62nd governor of Ohio.

Gilligan was born in Cincinnati, Ohio. He graduated from St. Xavier High School in 1939, the University of Notre Dame in 1943 and the University of Cincinnati in 1947, serving in between in the U.S. Navy during World War II in the Atlantic, Pacific and Mediterranean as a destroyer gunnery officer. He was awarded a Silver Star for gallantry in action at Okinawa.

After the war, Gilligan returned to Cincinnati to teach literature at Xavier University from 1948 to 1953. He also served as member of the Cincinnati city council from 1953 to 1963, and was a candidate for Ohio Congressman-at-Large in 1962. In 1964 he was elected to the Eighty-ninth Congress as a representative for Ohio's 1st district, serving from January 3, 1965-January 3, 1967. Gilligan lost his re-election bid to the Ninetieth Congress in 1966 to Republican Robert Taft Jr. after the Ohio General Assembly redrew his district to be more Republican. In 1968, Gilligan defeated sitting U.S. Senator Frank J. Lausche in the Democratic primary; however, he lost in the general election to Republican William B. Saxbe.

Gilligan won the election for the Governorship of Ohio in 1970, defeating Republican Roger Cloud, and serving from 1971 to 1975. Gilligan lost the governorship to Republican James A. Rhodes in a tight race in 1974. He subsequently served as the administrator of United States Agency for International Development (USAID) from 1977 to 1979. He served as director of the Institute for Public Policy from 1979 to 1986, and taught at the University of Notre Dame from 1986 to 1992. He also served as director of the civic issues forum at the University of Cincinnati School of Law.

In 1999, at age 78, Gilligan was elected to the Board of Education of the Cincinnati Public Schools. He chose not to stand for re-election when his term expired in 2007.

Gilligan is the father of four children, including Kathleen Sebelius, the current governor of Kansas. They constitute the first father-daughter pair of governors in the United States.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_J._Gilligan

[mmonk]

7. She's on the short list.

I'm counting on it.

[gristy]

5. The delegates at the convention "vote" for VP?

Now imagine its June 4th and Clinton calls again. Clinton, "I know Obama has enough votes to win, but I wanted you to know Hillary has decided to run for vice president at the convention. You know there are two roll call votes at the convention: first president then for vice president. I know you are voting for Obama for president. Fine, but I want your commitment to vote for Hillary for vice president."

In business this would be called a hostile bid. Everything I know about Obama tells me he'd have plenty of defensive moves to this one by Clinton, if indeed she were to take it (though I very much doubt she will). Obama plays chess while his opponents play checkers.

Where is this meme coming from, and why is it catching such fire?

[DeschutesRiver]

13. If he plays it like a chess game

and if the delegates even had the ability to force a VP choice onto a nominee (which I don't know is true or not), then if I were Obama, I'd have to let it ride.

Until I was sworn into office, at which point I would fire her ass and substitute my own VP choice. That I know he can do.

[tritsofme]

20. VP is a constitutional office, you can't fire him. Death, resignation, or impeachment are the only

ways out.

[PassingFair]

23. Here's wiki's take on the Nomination Process...

Nominating process

The vice presidential candidates of the major national political parties are formally selected by each party's quadrennial nominating convention, following the selection of their presidential candidates. The official process is identical to the one by which the presidential candidates are chosen, with delegates placing the names of candidates into nomination, followed by a ballot in which candidates must receive a majority to secure the party's nomination. In practice, the presidential nominee has considerable influence on the decision, and in 20th century it became customary for that person to select a preferred running mate, who is then nominated and accepted by the convention. In recent years, with the presidential nomination usually being a foregone conclusion as the result of the primary process, the selection of a vice presidential candidate is often announced prior to the actual balloting for the presidential candidate, and sometimes before the beginning of the convention itself. Often, the presidential nominee will name a vice presidential candidate who will bring geographic or ideological balance to the ticket or appeal to a particular constituency. The vice presidential candidate might also be chosen on the basis of traits the presidential candidate is perceived to lack, or on the basis of name recognition. Popular runners-up in the presidential nomination process are commonly considered, to foster party unity.

The ultimate goal of vice presidential candidate selection is to help and not hurt the party's chances of getting elected. An overly dynamic selection can backfire by outshining the presidential candidate. A classic example of this came in 1988, when Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis chose experienced Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen as his running mate. The public perception of Dukakis was so bland that one West Virginia elector cast a presidential ballot for Bentsen rather than Dukakis.<3>

The last presidential candidate to not name a vice presidential choice, leaving the matter up to the convention, was Democrat Adlai Stevenson in 1956. The convention chose Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver over Massachusetts Senator (and later president) John F. Kennedy. At the tumultuous 1972 Democratic convention, presidential nominee George McGovern selected Senator Thomas Eagleton as his running mate, but numerous other candidates were either nominated from the floor or received votes during the balloting. Eagleton nevertheless received a majority of the votes and the nomination.

In cases where the presidential nomination is still in doubt as the convention approaches, the campaigns for the two positions may become intertwined. In 1976, Ronald Reagan, who was trailing President Gerald R. Ford in the presidential delegate count, announced prior to the Republican National Convention that, if nominated, he would select Senator Richard Schweiker as his running mate. This move backfired to a degree, as Schweiker's relatively liberal voting record alienated many of the more conservative delegates who were considering a challenge to party delegate selection rules to improve Reagan's chances. In the end, Ford narrowly won the presidential nomination and Reagan's selection of Schweiker became moot.

[John Q. Citizen]

6. What Lola wants Lola gets? Not this time! Ask Edwards.

[LSparkle]

9. He cannot have his VP candidate STARRING in McCain's ads ...

And she will be there, saying "I'll bring a lifetime of experience to
the White House and Senator McCain will bring a lifetime of experience
and Senator Obama HAS A SPEECH". She will be there, saying, "I have
met the commander-in-chief test, Senator McCain has met that test, and
you'll have to ask Senator Obama about his CREDENTIALS."

She would have had the chance to be on the ticket, BUT HER CAMPAIGN
PRAISED McCAIN AT OBAMA'S EXPENSE. There is NO WAY he *can* take her
as his VP, and it's because of HER ACTIONS, not his stubbornness.

END OF STORY.

[ruggerson]

10. While I think Hillary would help Obama

I'm not wedded to the notion that she must be on the ticket. There is a strong argument to be made, demographically, in her favor. And perhaps she would bring in enough votes in the swing states to cinch it. But, I think there are other good candidates, Jim Webb being at the top of the list.

One minor positive for Hillary being on the ticket would be to watch some of the more rabid Hillary hater's heads explode here. But that would just be an amusing side show.

[RaleighNCDUer]

28. The only thing that would explode would be Obama's chances of winning,

if Hillary was his VP.

As mentioned above, she would be appearing in EVERY republican campaign ad speaking against Obama. She'd be more of a laughingstock than she is today.

Of course, that result might be exactly what she wants.

[Spazito]

11. You're late, this dinner was already served and....

the leftovers have already hit the trash can.

[Joe the Revelator]

12. obama is the leader of the party now

The Clinton's have lost their power. Obama
will pick his

[IDemo]

14. Posted earlier. Still wrong. n/t

[Cha]

16. Bugger Off bob beckel

that old tainted horse is dead.

[democrattotheend]

22. Interesting analysis

I did not realize that the VP was a separate vote at the convention.

If this guy is right and Clinton does intend to run for VP at the convention, I guess Obama doesn't have much choice but to pick her. If so, maybe it's not the worst thing in the world. It would help unite the party and give Obama cover with some of his supporters who would otherwise be outraged if he put her on the ticket. I still have mixed feelings about whether or not an Obama/Clinton ticket is a good idea, but I'm so excited about getting to vote for my first choice on the top of the ticket that there's no way his VP selection, whoever it is, would make me even consider not voting for him.

[PassingFair]

25. She's a CLANKER.

She'd bring the ticket DOWN.
I HOPE that she's not planning
any of this bullshit at the
convention.

Obama had better choose wisely,
or the DLC will DOOM him with
a LIEBERMANESQUE running mate.

[Ed76638]

24. The hell he can't! /nt

[Bensthename]

27. He says Obama doesnt want her as VP but then says she will get it if she wants???

Isnt this like any other relationship in business or social? Why would she want on the tkt if she thought he didnt want her to be?

[SoCalDem]

29. Out of 796 or so she'll have LESS than 1/3 and some of the ones who

signed on early (about 1/4), are READY to bail.. Many of the SDs KNOW the Clintons and that's why not more signed on.. I'm guessing that most do NOT like her or HIM..especially since THIS campaign. I think MANY are just looking for a way to dump both of them..

[Yukari Yakumo]

30. Bullshit.

Does Hillary Clinton want to be the Democrats vice presidential candidate? Probably. Could she get on the ticket by dropping out before the last states vote on June 3rd? Definitely not. Does Barack Obama want her on the ticket? Absolutely not. Can he stop her if she wants it? Probably not. Why not? Super delegates are why not.

It was at this point I stopped reading because the guy is full of shit.

Uh... In case you haven't noticed, the SDs are flocking to Obama. On the 20th, he'll win enough PDs to claim the majority, and by the following Friday he'll cross the 2025 line (or be damn close to it).

Plus he think MI and FL will be seated. Sorry, no they won't.

This guy is clearly a Pro-Clinton shill.

[Beregond2]

31. Another

idjit who actually gets paid for this crap. The Superdelegates are going to try to strong-arm the best hope the Dems have had for decades? Yeah; that'll happen. If they want to commit professional suicide.

Sigh. Dear God, smite these chattering anuses!

[totodeinhere]

32. No, the delegates will defer to the wishes of the nominee just like they have for the past 100 years

[DU GrovelBot]

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[AtomicKitten]

34. She can't even run a campaign and they think she can pull off a coup?!

:rofl:

It turns out the Clintons aren't all that after all. She's got nothing. Barack is the epicenter of the Democratic Party now. She made a monster mistake running ugly and I promise won't be rewarded for it. Barack has a fine Democratic bench from which to choose a suitable running mate.

[FredScuttle]

35. LOL...the image of Bill Clinton on the phone begging a SD for his/her vote

"When you needed me I was there, now we need you" :wtf:

I can imagine the conversation 10 years ago was

CLINTON: "Hey peon"
SD: "Yes, Mr. President"
CLINTON: "Get out there and tell the press you have full confidence in me and I had nothing to do with that sexy intern"
SD: "Yes, well....er, Mr. President, I would rather not get involved in this..."
CLINTON: "DAMN IT! GET OUT THERE AND DO AS YOU'RE TOLD, ASSHOLE!"
SD: "Yes sir"

I gotta believe there are a few SDs who are taking a lot of pleasure in slamming the door shut on the Clintons

[BenDavid]

36. Unless Obama gets much stronger on his own, he'll need HRC more

than ever in November. That's the only ticket that makes sense now.

Here is some proof to the above statement: "Of the 29 primaries since New Hampshire from which delegates have been allocated,Obama has won 15. But in doing so, he got a majority of the white votes in just five of the 29 contests. And while winning three of the eight primaries held since March 4,
Obama won a majority of the white vote in only one — Vermont."
-- Dwayne Wickham,AA, U S Today, "Obama's Vulnerability: White Voters"

If I read Wickham's math right, Obama won white people in only 6 out of 37 states? Another case for HRC

if it's true that "Velveeta melting Democrats" won't vote for Obama, when do you want to find that out -now or on November 4th or the 5th?

[symbolman]

37. Get real for once

The man might as well tie a dead chicken around his neck and let it rot off during the GE as have that pantsuited CacklePander anywhere NEAR him..

Its over, get a grip already..

[TexasObserver]

38. Bob Beckel, author of the famous "How to lose 49 States"

He found fundamentalism a few years back, and has been a Fox whore most recently. Name a single Democrat who gives a shit what Bob Beckel has to say. He's the kind of "expert" that is only an expert on Fox News.

[Eurobabe]

39. Bullshit, he can choose whomever he wants, this is not the 1960s

Veto that.

[JeanGrey]

40. Er, No. It won't happen. This primary has shown that the

Clinton's are on their way out; we're tired of them, they don't weild that kind of power anymore.

[Beacool]

41. "We" is too many people.

49% of the Democratic party disagrees with you.

[JeanGrey]

43. And 51% agree.

[WA98070]

42. Why in Hell would she want to be VP and why would SDs want to tie the hands of....

it's newly anointed? The world judges the nominee by his selection of VP as his first big decision. If the convention were to force him to take her they in effect would make him look weak and therefore he would become unelectable.