Polls show Democrats set to retake Congress

[quaoar]

These are from polls asking people whether they prefer a generic Democratic or Republican Party candidate for Congress. The numbers in parenthesis are the trends. Note that even the Gallup poll shows Democrats gaining and Republicans losing. Numbers like this are what led to the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress.


http://www.ourcongress.org/

Rasmussen -- 8/3 (daily tracking poll)
Democrats 44 (+2)
Republicans 37 (-2)

Gallup -- 7/30-8/1
Democrats 47 (+2)
Republicans 47 (-5)

Newsweek -- 7/29-30
Democrats 51 (+2)
Republicans 41 (-1)

NYT/CBS News -- 7/11-15
Democrats 46 (+4)
Republicans 37 (-1)

AP/Ipsos -- 7/5-7
Democrats 47
Republicans 43

NBC/WSJ -- 6/25-28
Democrats 44
Republicans 42

GWU Battleground Poll -- 6/20-23
Democrats 49
Republicans 41

[skooooo]

1. Yeah, BABY!

That's what I'm talking about!

[DaveinMD]

2. these generic polls

don't really mean much. There are so few competitive districts, it will be hard.

[BayCityProgressive]

4. A generic

Democrat was leading Bush by like 15% at one point. The GOP makes sure their opponent isnt "generic". They tie them to gays, ACLU, osama bin laden and everything else they can throw out at them and the numbers quickly tighten. I would say a more exciting "poll" is that 2 democrats won in special elections in conservative districts this year.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I See Your Point

but if one party really was behind ten percent on the generic ballot on election day they would lose alot of seats ...


It's hard to explain but if Dems capture 55% of the congressional vote it would be hard not to take back congress...

[quaoar]

10. No one thought for a second

that House Speaker Tom Foley would lose in 1994.

And the 1980 GOP takeover of the Senate was unfathomable.

[bluestateguy]

3. Been there, done that

We've gone through this every two years since 1996: polls show the Democrats leading in the generic congressional ballot through the whole fall campaign, and then it never materializes on election day.

[salonghorn70]

5. Not Many Competitive Districts

As some other poster said, this is part of the problem.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. We have something we haven't had since 1996: coattails

[depakid]

17. How do you figure that?

I don't see the Kerry campaign exposing Republicans for what they are- nor are they nationalizing the election.

I suppose we can hope....

[Feanorcurufinwe]

23. By using my eyes, ears, and brain.

It's pretty exciting to watch the way the country is uniting behind Kerry. Dems are going to benefit all the way down the ticket, everywhere.

[Barret]

18. Yup

I suspect some polls are designed to make us complacent. "Oh what's that? We are leading by 10%? Hmmm... maybe I don't need to make that extra donation, or go door to door, or hell maybe I can go on a picnic instead of taking time to vote considering we are so far ahead".

[quaoar]

7. Those generic polls mean a lot

Check out this excellent analysis:

http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,673760,00.html

But the polls to which congressional leaders in Washington pay more attention are the "generic" ones, where voters are asked whether they'll vote for a Republican or a Democrat in congressional races. By early August 1994, Republicans had overtaken the Democrats in the generic polls and were leading by about two percentage points. In June and July of 2004, Democrats have had anywhere from a 6- to a 15-point advantage, depending on the poll. That wide spread is unlikely to hold through October when the public starts paying more attention to politics and races tighten. But Rep. Bob Matsui, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and who briefed reporters this week in another session, believes Democrats need only be about 3 points ahead on the generic polls by November to win the House.

[T Bone]

9. Good the investigations into Bush corruption can start then

>>>Democrats need only be about 3 points ahead on the generic polls by November to win the House.
<<<<

[DaveinMD]

11. most voters

are in safe districts now. The redistricting of Texas will really make this difficult. I really don't see this happening. I hope I'm wrong. Here's one seat to help.

www.stan2004.com

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. poo poo

[olddem43]

13. You're right, gerrymandering really works. n/t

[Barret]

19. Don't forget

The pubs have been gerrymandering in other states as well... unfortunately Texas was the only one that got any real media attention.

[MoonRiver]

24. Even gerrymandering won't help if you lose your base.

And that's happening to the Pukes. They're not losing the hardcore nuts, but those fiscal conservatives and moderate Repubs who are becoming very very alarmed with what their Representatives are doing to this country.

[quaoar]

14. I'd be willing to bet

That a few months ago hardly anyone here would have considered Nevada fertile ground for Democratic gains in Congress.

But check this out:

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/lv-gov/2004/jul/22/517215961.html

CARSON CITY -- In the past month voter registration in Nevada has increased by 16,465 with Democrats continuing to narrow the lead of Republicans.

Secretary of State Dean Heller reported today that 882,602 people were signed up to vote at the end of June.

"With Nevada being declared a 'battleground state,' the registration numbers will most likely continue a steady upward climb as more and more groups work to enlist additional voters," he said.

Republicans have 363,463 voters registered, compared with 354,950, a margin of 8,513. At the end of May the GOP had a lead of more than 10,000 voters over Democrats.

[eleny]

15. YOW!!!!!!!!

[ArnoldLayne]

16. I really believe we , the Progressive Democrats can

take control of the executive and legislative branches, at least the Senate this election. :dem:

[quaoar]

20. I think we can take the House

Why should we concede it to the Republicans?

If we are ever going to take the House back this is the year to do it. Do you think it'll happen in 2006, an off-year election after two years of the Kerry Administration? We lost the House two years after Clinton won.

If we concede the House this year we might as well concede it for the next 10 years. This is the time to do it. This is the year of the Perfect Storm.

Here's my outrageous prediction: Richard Morrison will defeat Tom DeLay.

You can laugh at that if you like. Or you can help make it happen:

http://www.richardmorrisonfordistrict22.com/

[Barret]

21. I think we will get the senate

but unfortunately I think the we won't get the house. There are just too many unlikely seats we would need to pick up.

[quaoar]

22. How many unlikely seats

Did Gingrich claim in 94? Read that Time article I linked above.

We all love to complain about Tom DeLay. Personally I think he's the Antichrist.

So here's our chance to make his life a living hell. He has an opponent with a good chance who is actually raising money and he's got DeLay scared. DeLay is actually holding Town Hall meetings in his district.

So why should we just throw in the towel on the House? Because it costs money? Well, I guess we'll have to raise more of it then. If we want to go toe to toe with the GOP we'd better start matching them dollar for dollar.

[ellie]

25. Thank God if this is true

I won't be happy until the repuke party is a dim and distant memory.