Kerry Leads in Michigan, New Mexico, Florida, New Hampshire

[PSU84]

MICHIGAN 8/5/2004
Kerry 52%
Bush 41%
Other/Undecided 8%
Sample: 608 Likely Voters
Margin of Error 4.0%
http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

NEW MEXICO 8/4/2004
Kerry 50%
Bush 43%
Other/Not Sure 7%
Sample: 500 Likely Voters
RasmussenReports.com

FLORIDA August 5, 2004
Kerry 50%
Bush 43%
Nader 2%
Undecided 5%
600 likely voters, MOE +/- 4 percentage points
www.americanresearchgroup.com

NEW HAMPSHIRE August 5, 2004
Kerry 49%
Bush 42%
Nader 2%
Undecided 7%
600 likely voters, MOE +/- 4 percentage points
www.americanresearchgroup.com

[eaprez]

1. Good news...however, we...

...must not get lulled into a false sense of victory. There is a lot of time left and lots of work to do.

[quaoar]

2. Based on this

Why is Michigan (as well as Penn.) still considered a battleground state while South Carolina, where the last poll showed a smaller gap, is not?

[Toots]

4. Still within the margin of error

plus or minus 4 points is 4 points in both direction or in actuality 8 points. Kerry has to be ahead by more than eight percentage points to actually be declared ahead.

[PSU84]

7. Um....

Don't try that answer in Statistics class.

If the MOE is +/- 4 percentage points, then a lead of 5 or more points exceeds the MOE and is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

In other words if the MOE is +/- 4, there is only a 1 in 20 chance that a candidate with a lead of 5+ points is not ahead by at least 1 percentage point, assuming a random normal distribution.

[PSU84]

5. Because...

All 4 of these states, as well as PA, OH, MO, CO, NV, IA, LA, AR, VA, WV, and WI have large numbers of voters who are either undecided or who would be willing to consider switch from one candidate to the other. South Carolina has a much larger percentage of voters who historically have voted Republican. If SC goes for Kerry, he will win in a landslide, but he can't afford to campaign as if that is a likely scenario. It makes sense, politically and financiall for each candidate to focus his efforts on the 15 or 16 states that have a either a history of going back and forth between D and R, or where recent elections or numerous polls show a close race....

[quaoar]

8. Yes, but...

Even though the liklihood of Kerry taking SC is slim, if Bush's lead there is smaller than Kerry's lead in Pennsylvania, SC should be called a battleground state. The odds of Bush making up a 12-point deficit in Pennsylvania are slim as well. Twelve points is a big mountain to climb.

A state's voting history shouldn't have anything to do with it. Virginia hasn't gone Democratic since LBJ and suddenly everyone is excited about Kerry's chances there.

[PSU84]

10. A state's voting history has every thing to do with it,

unless polls show that is a close race. I have seen 2 polls where Bush leads Kerry in VA by either 2 or 3 points, well within the margin of error. Therefore, VA is worth the campaign's time and attention. Unless the polls begin to show Bush leading in SC by less than the MOE, it's not worth time or money that could be spent in PA, OH, or FL.

This campaign hinges on 3 states: PA, OH, and FL. Whoever wins 2 of those three will win the election.

[Racenut20]

3. Not sure I believe that Florida number, BUTT

They were running the "prayerful Bush good guy" ad on MSNBC every 30 minutes all day today. It is a BuschCo ad, not a 527.

[lancdem]

6. Zogby also has Kerry ahead in Florida, I think

[George_Bonanza]

9. Looks like Nader is limping to the finish line

Hardly making a dent.