http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/davidcorn/2008/05/clintons-hollow-win-in-west-vi.htmlClinton's Hollow Win in West Virginia
By David Corn | May 13, 2008 10:57 AM
Not every primary matters. Especially West Virginia.
Before Election Day had even arrived, Barack Obama gave an upbeat speech there in which he conceded that Hillary Clinton had more support in the state, and she appeared at a campaign rally and spoke of her win to come, but in not-so-jubilant terms. Yes, the loser was upbeat, the winner reserved. That's because the outcome was practically irrelevant. Up to now in the 2008 campaign, it seemed that just about each new primary was significant. First, there was the upset in Iowa. Then the comeback in New Hampshire. Next, Nevada and South Carolina and the states of Super Tuesday showed the race was competitive. After that, Obama tore through a winning streak that HRC did not slow until Ohio and Texas. This led to the battle of Pennsylvania. She won that contest, but her victory there ended up not meaning a lot when she failed to stomp Obama in Indiana and he creamed her in North Carolina.
A lot of states have played crucial roles in this nominating contest--far more so than in the Republican race--but the remaining primaries are unimportant. The results in these contests cannot change the fact that Obama has pocketed more voter-determined delegates than Clinton, and that fact apparently is pushing several superdelegates each day to declare their loyalty to Obama.
It's not unusual for a primary not to matter. In previous elections, candidates often skipped territory not deemed favorable to them. And late states often have had little impact. This year shows that it's hard to know in advance which states and which period will be crucial. Who'd thought that those medium-sized, in-the-middle-of-the-calendar states would be so important? But that was where and when Obama gathered momentum and vacuumed up a bunch of delegates.
So nothing against West Virginians, but, like voters in late states of previous contests, they don't have much of a say in who will be the Democratic nominee. And neither will Kentuckians, who next week are likely to tilt toward Clinton, while Oregonians near-coronate Obama. The Democratic primary, as red-hot as any recent primary contest, is petering out. Seemingly with a whimper, rather than a bang. Which is a good thing. Clinton at the moment seems to be coasting, not calculating how best to destroy Obama. After the intensity of the past few months, she may need an exit strategy that entails a gradual withdrawal and lets her retreat with a few more battlefield victories. As long as she doesn't use these weeks to scorch Obama, her continued presence in the race won't have any long-term impact.
It's true, as I've noted elsewhere, that her wins in the remaining primary only have consequence if she intends to mount a full-throttle campaign to persuade superdelegates to vote for her against the will of the primary and caucus voters. But her dream of triumphing via the insiders appears to be fading quickly. So West Virginia, Kentucky, and the few other primaries left--it's all for show. The only victories she can earn at this point are hollow ones.
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