Do you think Obama can win the GE without Florida or Michigan..

[JKaiser]

I think Obama will have a hard time winning those states because of the controversy of the delegates, plus there is a huge population of retired people and hispanic people that will probably prefer McCain. What do you all think?

[backscatter712]

1. Hillary was against having those delegates counted too.

She wanted them counted her way - without holding a new, real primary, all to her, none to Obama.

[JKaiser]

6. Forget hillary.. Hillary is over.. Where talking about Obama and McCain..

[MonkeyFunk]

10. That's not the question, is it?

God, you guys are like a junkyard dog on a tire. I've said for months that the history doesn't MATTER! The party has to look ahead to November and resolve this.

[babylonsister]

2. Go do a google search. He wasn't against anything, he didn't make

the rules, your assertion is ridiculous. And tired. Stop trying to spread misinformation.

[flor de jasmim]

3. Been there, done that, but YES

oh, and he was NOT against having them counted. He was FOR following the rules (as Hillary was, before she wasn't).

[JKaiser]

12. He followed the rules because they were in his favor.. That's the reality..

He would have done the same thing as hillary if they weren't in his favor..

[dbmk]

25. On what do you base that accusation?

[BklynChick]

4. Obama wasn't and isn't against having those delegates seated. He was trying to work out a deal that

would be fair given they broke the rules. Hillary was trying to use their rule-breaking to her advantage and pandering. It will all be worked out. I don't think we'll win FL anyway but that doesn't mean their delegates shouldn't be seated. I'm sure the DNC will find a way.

[Milo_Bloom]

5. Most don't even know and the rest don't care.

The vast VAST majority of voters don't give a damn about some silly technicalities in counting votes in a primary.

I doubt there is even 1 single person who would decide their general election vote on this.

[skipos]

7. Hillary was against it before she was for it

Read my sig.

I think there are many red/purple states that are more flippable than FL, no matter who our nominee is.
Obama is setting foot in MI for the 1st time tomorrow, so the numbers will change. McCain has been here many times.

[demnan]

8. I think Obama will win Michigan

Florida, I don't know. There are a lot of rednecks in Florida. I hope that people in those states don't blame him for what happened.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

9. Can Hillary win with 10% of the black vote?

[MonkeyFunk]

13. What's that got to do with the topic?

But to answer, if Clinton were the nominee, she'd get the vast majority of the african-american vote.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

28. Because we're basing potential votes on polls.

And she has been polling poorly with AA voters.

This is also my response when people say Obama can't win with white working-class voters because of the same polls.

Also, the OP mentioned seniors and Hispanics voting against Obama, so why can't we include another demographic?

[MonkeyFunk]

42. yes, in the primaries

but there's no reason to believe that she'd get 10% of the AA vote in the general. That's just silly.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

44. Some Hillary supporters use primary results as a barometer for the GE.

Not to mention Hillary herself and her "hard-working white Americans" bit.

[MonkeyFunk]

45. I think you're oversimplifying

and misstating the argument. The question is which voters would vote for McCain in the GE. I don't think we'd see a sizeable number of african-americans voting for McCain if Hillary were the nominee.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

47. They won't vote for him, but they may stay home if Hillary was the nominee.

And some of the resident pollsturbators frequently compare Obama vs. McCain and their demographic appeal.

[MonkeyFunk]

53. That's true

and that's why I always thought it was politically short-sighted to try to tar the Clintons as racists for political gain. If Clinton got the nomination, that unfounded smear would hurt the party badly.

In fact, I believe it has hurt the party regardless of who the nominee is. Nobody should be pushing vicious smears like that against democrats.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

54. To be fair, I don't think the Clintons are themselves racists.

However, they are not above using racism/prejudice in order to win.

[MonkeyFunk]

55. and to be fair

I don't think Obama's above pushing the accusation in order to win.

That's politics, I guess.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

56. Hillary's pushed it more than anyone.

That "hardworking white American" line has come back to bite her.

[MonkeyFunk]

57. That was a discussion

of the demographics of the campaign. There was nothing inherently racist about it, and she didn't say what you said. "Hardworking" was not an adjective describing "white americans". She said "hardworking americans, white americans".

But I'm so weary of arguing against the non-stop lies from Obama supporters. You're going to believe whatever you want to believe no matter what, so go for it. "Fairy Tale" is racist, too.

[JKaiser]

14. It's not Hillary's fault black people are discriminating against her because she is white..

You people are stuck on Hillary.. Forget hillary she cannot win.. Focus on Obama and McCain..

[babylonsister]

17. Bwhahaha! You have GOT to be kidding me.

How delusional of you.

[JKaiser]

32. So your saying Obama is winning 90% of African Americans just because he has the best platform?

How delusional are you?

[babylonsister]

52. You just made the absurd claim blacks aren't voting for clinton

because she's white. How clueless are you, really? She had the black vote locked up prior to foot-in-mouth hubby in SC. And her campaign went downhill from there.

And as a white, middle-aged woman who could be considered part of Clinton's base, I vastly prefer Obama and always have. Am I prejudiced, too, and how would you compute that?

Consider this; maybe people just don't like her or trust her. Also, maybe the inevitability and the dynasty didn't sit well with many of us, black and white. That's my gripe. :think:

For you to claim discrimination is flipping stupid.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

26. She had most AAs on her side at the beginning.

Not to mention the ones that voted heavily for her husband, along with a million other white candidates, with no problem.

[JKaiser]

33. Okay Fine.. Obama has 90% of AA just because of his awesome record.. It has nothing to do with his

skin color..

[Starbucks Anarchist]

35. AA voters aren't voting against Hillary because she's white.

But many WV voters are voting against Obama because he's black, and they have been quoted as such.

Get it now?

[JKaiser]

37. So AAs are voting for him because he is black.. Well that is dumb

[Starbucks Anarchist]

38. Yes, that explains Presidents Sharpton and Jackson.

Because black voters automatically vote for the black candidate. :eyes:

[NatBurner]

50. and alan keyes

[Occam Bandage]

30. You realize that she started out with a majority of black support.

[lligrd]

11. Michigan Will Be Fine

Florida is fixed for the GOP anyway.

[JKaiser]

18. I just hope it doesn't end like 2000 for Obama. What battleground states will be in play in GE?

[cali]

23. VA, CO, NM and NC are all in play according to current polling.

I'm less sure that NC is in play than the other 3, but in any case, I believe that Obama will win quite handily over McCain.

[JKaiser]

36. I agree with you about NC.. New Mexico I question as well.. Why do you think Obama can win NM?

[cali]

48. NM is trending blue. Tom Udall will win big there in November

and Heather Wilson will be replaced by a dem. I don't think that McCain will do as well with latino voters as you do, particularly as he hedges about immigration reform in order to play up to mainstream repub opinion. He can't afford to lose repub votes over this issue.

[lligrd]

24. Hillary Couldn't Win Florida Either

It is a lost cause unless the corrupted system is replaced.

[JKaiser]

39. With all the hispanics and retired people she could.. But this isn't about hillary it is about Obama

[lligrd]

40. You Need To Face Reality

Florida's system is corrupted.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. Agreed.

And Crist will probably be McKnucklehead's VP.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

15. he can't

[bowens43]

16. Obama is not opposed to seating the delegates.

He agreed to the plan that Michigan came up with, Hillary rejected it.

[cali]

19. He is not against couting the delegates in those states. And it's just

misleading to say he is. Last week the Obama campaign agreed to the solution that the MI dems proposed to the campaigns and the DNC. It was the Clinton campaign that nixed it. Hillary's campaign has argued against Obama receiving any votes or delegates from MI. How is that equitable? Furthermore, he has an excellent chance of winning MI, and he can win VA, CO, NM and possibly NC. He does not need FL to win the general. Furthermore, you have no evidence for latino voters preferring McCain and a new poll suggests that the electorate is more concerned about age than race.

[onehandle]

20. He will need one of them. I say forget Florida and concentrate on Michigan.

I worry more about Ohio these days.

[SoCalDem]

22. Of COURSE he can.. His campaign is about BROADENING the democratic base

and CHANGING that damned red-blue map.. as long as there are "specified" red & blue states, we will always have the cliff-hanger style elections we have been having..

Obama changes the "battle-ground" states and makes republicans campaign where they are not used to having to spend resources, and he does not just write off states that used to be republican-only.

I can see him getting NM , CO, VA, AK, and holding LA.. If Bob Barr is in the race seriously, I can even see us taking Georgia, because Barr is a favorite son, and southerners don't like McCain.. If he chose Janet Napolitano, we migth even sneak AZ out from under McCain..they like her more than him..

With "new" states in the mix, the old ones become less relevant. They are welcome, of course, but they will no longer be "necessary".....and the "newer" states are less populated and easier to campaign in..costs a lot less to campaign there too.. OH, PA, FL are EXPENSIVE states to buy air time in..

Create your own map at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/

[newmajority]

27. If Michigan votes for John McLoon after 28 years of BushClinton economic devastation

Then they deserve whatever happens to them as a result.

As for Florida, the Bush Crime Family will steal that state as usual, so if anyone is counting that as a "must win" state, they're not being very smart. It would be nice if massive turnout would be enough to overpower the theft, but even that may not work in Florida.

[Texas Hill Country]

29. no

[BlooInBloo]

31. Why do people keep suggesting that it's somehow Obama's fault? What a lie.

[knixphan]

34. That will be such old news in November.

[JKaiser]

41. November is 6 months away.. not that faraway to me..

[cali]

49. In terms of politics, it's a long way off.

[Douglas Carpenter]

43. Rasmuusen Market rates a 62% that Obama will win the GE

" Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.0% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

" The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. "

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

also:

Rasmussen Reports to Stop Tracking Democratic Race

" Even if every single Superdelegate was convinced that the former First Lady is somewhat more electable than Obama, that is not enough of a reason to deny him the nomination.

With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. Barring something totally unforeseen, that is the choice American voters will have before them in November"

link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rasmussen_reports_to_stop_tracking_democratic_race

[book_worm]

46. most recent Q-poll has Obama down by only one-point in both MI and FL

once the campaign begins I think he will get MI back easily due to the economy. He will have to fight, as always, for FL but I think he has a chance there.

[Bensthename]

51. That's odd. I had no idea they would not be able to vote in the GE...

:wow:

[caledesi]

58. I guess you haven't heard of the "50-State Strategy? nt

[crimsonblue]

59. good thing there's 48 other states

next thread.

[shaniqua6392]

60. There are many here in Michigan that have not forgotten

what the DNC and MDP did with our precious votes that we cast in the primary. McCain gets very good press here in Michigan over the past several months since he became the nominee. Obama can possibly win in Detroit, Flint, Bay City/Saginaw areas, but will have a difficult time in this battleground state. He would have had a hard enough time without the added problems of resentment over the primary problems. There is also an increasing amount of Independent voters here in Michigan who are not adverse to John McCain. The media portrays him as very independent and a maverick. In my opinion, McCain will win Michigan if Obama is the nominee.

[Justitia]

61. Obama will win MI, FL will go republican (as it would no matter the nominee) -eom