http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/oregon/election_2008_oregon_senate2Smith Still Below 50% in Re-election Bid
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Gordon Smith, United States Senator from Oregon, remains below the 50% level of support for the third straight month in Rasmussen Reports polling. Any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable and this month’s polling contains even more bad news for Smith—support for his potential Democratic challengers is increasing.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters finds Smith leading Jeff Merkley by just three percentage points, 45% to 42%. In late March, he enjoyed a thirteen point lead. In February, he was ahead of Merkley by eighteen points.
When matched against Steve Novick, Smith leads by six percentage points, 47% to 41%. In the March poll, Novick trailed by eleven. In February, the gap was thirteen points.
Against either Democrat, Smith enjoys his strongest support among voters over 65.
Smith is far from the only Republican incumbent in trouble and
Democrats expect to pick up many Republican Senate seats this November. High on the list are contests in Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, and Alaska. Other potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents can be found in Minnesota, Kentucky and Texas.Underlying the growing number of vulnerable GOP Senators is the fact that more and more Americans are coming to consider themselves as Democrats. The latest tracking data released by Rasmussen Reports shows that Democrats now have a ten-percentage point advantage over Republicans in terms of partisan identification. Democrats are also trusted more than Republicans on most key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports. One of the only rays of hope for the GOP this season is that their presidential candidate, John McCain, outperforms the Republican party label on key issues such as the Economy and the War in Iraq.
In Oregon, Smith is viewed favorably by 55% of the state’s voters, Novick by 46%, and Merkley by 42%. The numbers for both Democrats are trending up.