Hillary Clinton can STILL WIN THIS.

[FlyingSquirrel]

This will probably be my last "Devil's Advocate" thread on this subject - or so I'm hoping.

Save the flamebait and boilerplate arguments, I'm an Obama supporter. I recognize how low the chances are, and I know all the arguments against the types of things the Clinton camp would wish to do (counting MI/FL, etc.) in order to secure the nomination. The reason I'm doing this is because I keep seeing people baiting Clinton supporters asking exactly how she could possibly win, and I haven't seen anyone respond with any kind of real analysis; so I thought I'd do it for them.

Let's start with the Superdelegates. The ones who have endorsed -- for either candidate -- take them out of the equation. Why? Because they can change their minds all the way up to the convention. They're not like regular delegates that are not changeable. (I'm willing to cut Hillary some slack, but I'm not willing to accept her argument that the pledged delegates can "vote however they want". They'll be chosen for their loyalty and the overwhelming likelihood is that they'll vote as expected.)

So now we're only looking at Pledged Delegates.

We MUST assume that Michigan and Florida will be seated - otherwise there's no real chance. We'll go with the best case scenario for Hillary: They're seated as-is and their superdelegates are also seated. Uncommitteds in Michigan will be dealt with later in the analysis, and MI delegates for Hillary will be added to her total.

According to DemConWatch, with MI and FL included our totals are as follows:


Pledged Delegates with MI and FL - current:

Obama 1657.5; Clinton 1604.5


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Total number of Pledged delegates would be 3566, so 1783.5 would be a majority of them.

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Now we look at the remaining states. Being generous, I give Hillary the following numbers:

Percentages: WV 71%, KY 69%, OR 47.5%, PR 59%, MT 61%, SD 46%

Delegates: WV 20, KY 35, OR 25, PR 32, MT 10, SD 7


Pledged Delegates with MI and FL - after all primaries:

Obama 1745.5; Clinton 1733.5


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Note that neither has yet reached 1783.5 - Edwards has 32 and there are 55 uncommitted from MI.

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On to popular vote. Currently Obama leads Clinton 17,210,970 to 16,816,712. In this case I gave Obama the Uncommitted vote in Michigan and counted all the caucus votes. I got these numbers from thegreenpapers.com, adding them up myself in a spreadsheet. I could not find numbers for TX caucuses so they are not included. Washington State's primary and caucus are both included.

I've estimated what the turnout might be in the remaining states. Based on my estimate and the above percentages, Clinton could hope for the following numbers, best case scenario:

WV: Clinton 397,845; Obama 156,842
KY: Clinton 618,190; Obama 269,309
OR: Clinton 366,610; Obama 406,604
PR: Clinton 483,386; Obama 331,624
MT: Clinton 185,980; Obama 117,021
SD: Clinton 143,242; Obama 169,091

ALL: Clinton 2,195,253; Obama 1,450,490


Final Popular Vote: Clinton 19,011,965; Obama 18,661,460


Although this is probably overly optimistic for Clinton and is not above reproach for many other reasons (not fairly estimating the actual popular vote in caucuses, for one, and including MI and FL for another), it illustrates the fact that Hillary could still win the popular vote by as many as 350,000 votes using the most advantageous metric for her. If the media were willing participants, this could lead to a belief among many Americans that she had actually won the popular vote - whether or not this were really true.

This is important, of course, because some Superdelegates may actually be willing to use it as their justification to vote for her.

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So there we are at the Convention, MI and FL have been allowed by the rules committee to be seated as-is, but with a stern warning to behave themselves next time. ;) Neither candidate has a majority of pledged delegates. There's a big squabble over the Uncommitted vote in MI on the first ballot; Hillary manages to get perhaps 18 or 19 of them away from Obama and deny him the ability to claim the lead in Pledged Delegates.

So now at this point it's up to the Superdelegates. Obama leads, 1781.5 to 1752.5 and it's game time. The magic number is 2,208.5; There are 850 Supers. Obama needs 427 of them to clinch; Clinton needs 456 of them. Again, we're not looking at the number of Superdelegate endorsements they've received to date; we're allowing for the fact that each Superdelegate could change his/her mind at the very last moment.

Note that the best case scenario for MI and FL just about has to happen for Hillary to win. Every other scenario which involves any kind of compromise would lead to Obama gaining over 50% of the available pledged delegates, and this would probably be enough to prevent Hillary from getting enough Superdelegate votes. If, for example, MI and FL are counted as-is, but with a 50% penalty in delegates, Obama would then have 1712 out of 3409.5 Pledged Delegates EVEN WITHOUT the Uncommitted in MI (of which there would only be 27.5 due to the penalty).

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So there you have it. This is the scenario Hillary Clinton is working for, and as unlikely as it is to actually occur - it is possible. Other things are possible as well in a brokered convention; deals could be made, Superdelegates who might otherwise support Obama could agree to support Hillary at the top of the ticket on the condition that Obama be named VP at the same time.

Good enough?

:7

[VolcanoJen]

1. I appreciate the devil's advocacy...

... but what I'd really appreciate is a toke of what you're smoking. :hippie:

It's the dreamy Clinton scenario, but it's hazed over in chronic-smoke. The magic number is wrong, the assumption the MI/FL delegates will be seated as-is is wrong, the generous allocations of delegates/pop vote in the remaining contests is too generous, and the caucus states which don't report pop vote are wholly ommitted.

But, it's dreamy. And it's fun to play!!! :-)

[PoliticalAmazon]

2. Hillary supporters need to do what they need to do to find closure in this....

If finding possible ways she can win helps, I say go for it, balls to the wall (or ovaries to the wall, if you're a woman).

If it turns out you're right, then it will be your turn to urge fellow Hillary supporters to give that bitch-on-wheels PoliticalAmazon her space while she pitches a fit or two.

Good luck, and I'll see you on the other side!

[ShortnFiery]

3. She's FIGHTING DIRTY. HRC will either win the Nomination OR destroy our Party in the process.

Don't get me started all the racial resentments her campaign is "whipping up" each and every day she and her race baiting "Devil's Rejects" spew their filth. :grr:

[leftofcool]

4. Of course she can and she just might

One never knows what is around the corner

[ShortnFiery]

6. If she intimidates and cheats her way to the Nomination, the Party will IMPLODE.

:nuke:

[FlyingSquirrel]

12. You certainly live up to your name.

:D

[ShortnFiery]

16. Yes, I do. for good and/or bad. But I'm serious.

HRC and her surrogates are fomenting racial divides that our Party may not be able to heal before the GE. I'm seriously concerned. :(

If they are allowed to "slice and dice" racial divisions for much longer, it's NOT going to be pretty and our party may well become irreputably fractured.

The above only benefits the power elite. I honestly don't understand how "race baiting" is serving HRC or our Country any good?

[leftofcool]

20. The party has been split since long before super Tuesday

You are assuming that it is a racial thing. There were rumblings before the Ohio primary that have nothing to do with race.

[ShortnFiery]

27. What the Clintons are doing has EVERYTHING to do with race baiting.

Hillary: 'SPADE WORK' (Clinton racist code words):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oRwZQLdhEw

[dchill]

34. "...nothing to do with race."

Honest to God, I don't see how you can say or believe that. Truly, you live in the land of night and fog. Other than the obscene Clinton turnaround lie about NAFTA in the run up to Ohio, it's all been about race - subtly or blatantly.

[Brundle_Fly]

44. Implosions on the whole

are not very fiery.

:toast:

[FlyingSquirrel]

11. The one thing I can really see that could happen

is a deal where the Superdelegates come to a general (but not unanimous) agreement during a brokered convention on a Hillary/Obama ticket - thus denying either of them the option of choosing their own VP. If this happens, the most logical thing would be for Hillary to be at the top of the ticket to allow for Obama to run in 2016.

Me, I want him there now. But I'm being devil's advocate in this thread.

[Blondiegrrl]

5. Let me see if I understand this: Even with the MI and FL delegates

seated as-is, Obama would still be leading (albeit by a hair) in pledged delegates? And Hillary would be ahead in popular vote (but again) by a hair? I still think it's highly unlikely that the SDs would see that as a reason to swing her way. Also, I think the race baiting comments from the Clinton camp are really starting to disillusion many of her own people.

Good reasoning, though. We need to stay on our toes. Anything is possible.

However, I am 99.9 percent certain Obama will win the nomination.

[tularetom]

7. If it wasn't so late on Friday night

I could prove to you that it was possible for monkeys to fly out of my ass.

But that doesn't mean it's gonna happen.


:shrug:

[rocktivity]

8. I have no doubt that MI and FL will be seated.

I also have no doubt that they WON'T be seated as is.

Hillary CAN still win fair and square--all she has to do is get 86% of the vote in all six of the remaining contests.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Wetzelbill]

9. I think it's more likely that he could lose it rather than her winning it

but yeah, very good points.

[ShortnFiery]

13. Yes, for the racists in the Party, she's the great ENTITLED White Hope. 8 years wasn't enough

for The Clintonian DLC to run the Executive Branch. :eyes:

[Wetzelbill]

19. I'm not sure what you mean by that

Did you mean to reply to me?

[TahitiNut]

10. She's in the last 2 miles of a marathon - and needs to run them each in 3 minutes to win.

Unless Obama is mugged by a spectator.

[ShortnFiery]

14. Or found with "a live boy" or "a dead woman" in his bed.

:crazy:

[Hippo_Tron]

17. I think that's the best analogy I've heard yet

[merh]

15. What if the MSM is just telling folks Obama has the nomination

so that Obama voters don't get out to vote in the remaining primary states?

[FlyingSquirrel]

21. Wow, that possibility did not occur to me.

:tinfoilhat:

But I don't think that would really keep them away. Even McCain is getting people out to vote for him and that one is DEFINITELY decided.

[merh]

29. but remember, at this stage, she is trying to get super delegates

to commit and/or change to her before the convention.

She just needs to try to show them that he can't get the votes

[FlyingSquirrel]

30. Very true.

[Secret_Society]

18. With regards to popular vote in PR

I think people are underestimating the turnout. In 2004, 2 million people voted for a NON-VOTING representative. I don't know if there was anything abnormal about that turnout, but I imagine with a presidential nomination coming to town the numbers may be that high.

[FlyingSquirrel]

22. I estimated nearly double the normal turnout. It'll be interesting to see

how close I got.

[Seen the light]

39. With regards to popular vote in PR

....It's ridiculous to count them towards any popular vote totals. :P

[QueenOfCalifornia]

23. Question...

are all flying squirrels nuts?

xoxo
Gilligan

[Zomby Woof]

24. These exercises have their place

I enjoy these kinds of analyses, and the dedication and spirit it takes to conjure the stats and what-ifs. I have a soft spot for the serious political junkies. :-)

But even as I have supported Senator Clinton since John Edwards dropped out, I am at heart, always a realist.

I share the opinion of the honest Clinton insiders that her exit is a matter of when, not if, and that I think she is now working on the timing, which is as important in politics as it is in entertainment (as Zappa said, "politics is the entertainment branch of industry").

[Shae]

25. Although it may be possible . . .

it's EXTREMELY unrealistic.

I don't think you can count MI and FL as is because they broke the rules, and if there are no consequences, rules are meaningless from here on in. Every state in every election year, can feel free to break the rules. Because there are no consequences to breaking rules.

As for the supers -- an indication as to how they're leaning ATM:
As I understand it, Obama went up to the Hill yesterday, and wizened statesmen jokeyed for position to get their pictures taken with him. He was treated like a rock star.
Hillary Clinton wanted to rent a hall and host a dinner, but all her friends were too busy to come. "Sorry Hilly, I really HAVE to wash my hair tonight!" And Hillary had to cancel the party.
And today alone, 9 supersdelegates came out for Obmama. Two came out for Clinton. But one of the supers who endorsed Obama had previously endorsed Clinton so her net was only one.
Not that things couldn't change, but there's that silly thing called momentum, and it doesn't favor Hillary.

[FlyingSquirrel]

26. It kinda makes me feel sorry for Hillary (a little)

-- who wants to throw a party and have nobody come. She must be feeling pretty lonely. (Well, at least she has Chelsea.)

[Shae]

28. Yeah me too a little.

If it had been me, I'd probably have stayed home and cried all day.
So you gotta hand it to her, in a way. She is a pretty tough cookie.

[JackORoses]

31. have you been hanging out with tropics_dude?

[FlyingSquirrel]

38. Nope, just bein' nice

It's kinda like, give 'em something in fantasy that they probably can't have in reality.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

32. Possible does not = plausible

Anything could happen but I'm not going on a spending binge because I bought a lottery ticket.

[Swamp Rat]

33. kick for ketchup

:D

[ProSense]

35. That's incorrrect.

Pledged Delegates with MI and FL - current:

Obama 1657.5; Clinton 1604.5

That's with Obama getting no delegates at all from MI. That's not going to happen.

If he gets MI 55, the delegate split for the two states is Hillary 178, Obama 122.

The totals become Obama 1712.05 Hillary 1604.5

If Hillary gets 70% of the vote in WV, KY and PR, and Obama wins by a margin of 4 pts in SD, MT and OR, Hillary gains 135, Obama 82.

The totals become Obama 1795, Hillary 1739

Other scenarios (on edit, these include current superdelegates):

FL gets 1/2 vote, no MI
Obama 1899, Hillary 1757.5

Florida 1/2 vote and MI split 59/69
Obama 1959, Hillary 1833.5

___________________

FL gets 1/2 vote, no MI, plus the remaining states from above:
Obama 1981, Hillary 1892.5


Florida 1/2 vote and MI split 59/69, plus the remaining states from above:
Obama 2041, Hillary 1968.8

Hillary can't win.

[yourguide]

36. And your Michigan totals include NO delegates for obama?

[FlyingSquirrel]

40. Did ya READ the whole thing?

I took MI last (before the Superdelegates) and said that in order for Hillary to prevent Obama from taking more than half the pledged delegates, she'd need to take away 18-19 of the Uncommitted in MI (there are 55 of them). Since Edwards was still in the race at the time, this is somewhat plausible since he was getting about 15% of the vote at that time which would account for that many delegates. But I said that there would be a big battle over these delegates. Anyway I gave him about 36 from MI. It's a stretch, but so is the entire OP. The point is that it could possibly happen - it's not an IMpossibility.

[nichomachus]

37. Uhh -- regular delegates ARE changeable

There is no law or party rule that requires them to vote for the candidate they are "pledged" to -- not even on the first ballot.

Now, not many of them would do that -- under ordinary circumstances -- but the fact that they probably won't change doesn't mean they can't.

Candidates used to be required to vote for their candidate on the first ballot, but that's no longer the case.

[FlyingSquirrel]

41. I know they can change

However, for any who might change to Hillary there are an equal number that could change to Obama. There's not much point discussing the what-ifs on pledged delegates.

[SwampG8r]

42. hillary wins montana?

this is all based on a fantasy

[SoCalDem]

43. Easy solution.. SDs get Obama to 2206 and she's got nothing to argue about

[FlyingSquirrel]

45. Problem is, she does because unless he has that many WITHOUT supers

before the convention, she can rightly claim that she has a shot at convincing the Supers to go with her (since they can change their minds right up until the convention). Therefore no matter how many people want her to drop out, she does NOT have to do so. She can force a brokered convention if she so wishes, and if Obama does not get a majority on the first ballot, anything can happen. Plus she can argue what a majority actually IS, thanks to MI and FL. It's a mess only Democrats could create.