Goodbye to Clinton's double digit Ohio win (WV popular vote for Hillary won't matter)

[caligirl]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/9/19758/84424/696/512899

CREDIT to the diarist(not me) SVOTAW1992 at kos
by svotaw1992
Fri May 09, 2008 at 04:25:34 PM PDT

I didn't see this posted anywhere, but Ohio has official results up for the primary. The numbers have changed significantly.

* svotaw1992's diary :: ::
*

According to unofficial old results on RealClearPolitics.com and thegreenpapers.com, the race was won by Clinton 1,212,362 to 982,489 for a difference of 229,873 (or 10.4%).

The new official results are 1,259,620 to 1,055,769 for a difference of 203,851 (I had to add the districts up individually since I couldn't find statewide totals anywhere). That's a change of 26,022 toward Obama. The lead for Clinton is at a final margin of 8.8%, so I guess she didn't get that double digit victory in Ohio after all. Looks like there were lots of provisionals and absentee for Obama that didn't get counted on election night.

West Virginia is also coming up. With 660,000 resgistered Democrats and assuming a huge turnout, we get about 300,000 votes. If Clinton wins by 20%, that's a 60,000 vote margin. She's already lost a big chunk of that (26,000) with the Ohio official update. That's means the popular vote totals won't change much after West Virginia vote on Tuesday (for those who are even paying attention).

UPDATE
For those of you asking, there were just under 100,000 provisional ballots accepted out of 123,000 cast. So yes, this change is reasonable.

Wow... first time on the rec list. I was just passing time on a lazy Friday afternoon at work. I hope someone double checks my numbers. ;-)
(hattip to northhanger for verifying the numbers from the SoS site)

UPDATE2
For those of you who are curious, the West Virginia Democratic primary turnout in 2004 was 252,000.

[Blondiegrrl]

1. Wow, that's fascinating. Thanks for posting! n/t

[caligirl]

7. so will the media point this out, how about it?

[PBS Poll-435]

2. So 252,000 showed up when the race was already decided?

And you are only expecting a 19% increase over 2004?

[Tinksrival]

4. This race is already decided too!

Pay attention! :) I love you!

[krawhitham]

5. 2 things

1st they had a lot of local issues last time

2nd it is already decided this time too

[caligirl]

6. No. Re- read the post. 252,000 is the number of voters who

participated in the WV primary in 2004 for those interested in comparing 2008 numbers next week and registration numbers.

Its a separate from the Ohio provisional ballots which have been counted now and increased Obama's votes and decreased Hillary's win to under double digits

[PBS Poll-435]

8. What I am saying is that you said

Huge Turnout = 300K Voters

In 2004 there was 252,000.

I would expect more than a 19% increase over 2004 in this climate.

[caligirl]

12. The assumption isn't mine, but it could be your right. A turnout of 50 %

in a normal primary is big, but who knows what turnout will be. I can't answer your question about how the diarist arrived at her assumption for turnout.

[PBS Poll-435]

13. It is alright. We will see on Tuesday.

With few exceptions, turnout has been epic this year.

[caligirl]

15. I went back and read thru the comments to the thread at kos, and the

diarist and others are standing by the math here. She suggests the campaign is now largely considered over with,Hillary has no viable road to take, that fewer will vote.

[rocktivity]

3. 8.8? Surely that's good for a one or two delegate pickup for Obama!

Cue the Vonage Theme!

:woohoo:
rocknation

[dbmk]

18. Only if it moves a district

It does not move the statewide delegates.

[Exultant Democracy]

9. nice find. What was the impetus for your investigation, seems like you put some real work in,

or at least a lot more work then lets say the MSM put in and it is their job.

[caligirl]

10. I went to daily kos, as i do everyday, and looked at the interesting diaries

then cross posted one. The link at the top of the page is my way of offering credit.

I think there are a few of us who do go back and look at prior results if they haven't been certified by the SOS yet. the diarist is just into rechecking for final counts. I do think Obama's pledged delegate lead will go up again now.

[Exultant Democracy]

11. Wow I lose a few points for attentiveness, in my defense I skipped the headers and when to the meat

none the less thanks for bringing this to my attention.

[mystieus]

14. Great!

[caligirl]

16. just a couple of notes from the comments at kos for this thread, 1000 votes

were added to Obama total in Texas, likely counted provisionals or absentee. In Indiana they believe there could be as many as 100,000 provisionals. Not certain if all absentees were counted(one university 's schedule ended before the primary so most of the profs and students voted absentee, large number there)So the 0.8% win could be very different after all those ballots finally are checked and either counted or not.

[goclark]

19. So there is a chance she did not win Indiana?

I don't want to get excited too much. :shrug:

[caligirl]

28. see my post three lines below, I clicked to the wrong line toanswer you.

[caligirl]

17. Kicking for the morning crowd.

[goclark]

20. Kicking again and wake up and help

me figure this all out.

What is the count for Indiana as of this moment?

Did it change enough to make a dent in the Media Spin?

[caligirl]

26. my understanding is they still have outstanding

provisional ballots to check. About 100,000. You may recall the supreme courts decision the week before the primary about voter id with and expiration date on the card? So people had trouble voting(like a group of 90 year old nuns).So while its virtually a tie in Indiana this could change that. The o.8% is about 11,000 votes. thats where it stands now. I would say check the kIN sos site for more info.

[K Gardner]

21. K&R

[myrna minx]

22. K&R n/t

[Doityourself]

23. Somebody tell Terry and Howard...lol..oh and Lanny the Leprechaun

[DemsUnited]

24. Glad to see the netroots keep on top of this kind of info because CNN

et al doesn't!

That Pennsylvania "double digit" is going to get even less when that vote is certified.

And Indiana might flip altogether. Apparently a lot of provisional ballots there, especially in Obama friendly counties.

[caligirl]

27. And when the flip happens, will the news pundits correct their numbers?

Will they adjust the numbers to acurately reflect Ohio TX, and In.?

[Coexist]

25. Indiana is barely 1%,too.

[caligirl]

29. 0.8%, 11000 votes. Provisionals could easily indue this.

[goclark]

30. I'll keep waiting to hear the final

:scared:

[caligirl]

31. UPDATED notes: May 16 is the last day Indiana voters

have to show id for their provisional ballots to count. So May 20 could be the time frame we may know something about those ballots. On the Ohio vote increase for Obama, it was noted by another kos commenter that there is no delegate addition based on the increase of 26000 + for Obama and none for the increase of 1000 votes in Tx as well. Just helps the popular vote

Another interesting fact noted is that Edwards name remains on the West Virginia ballot. This could help. In Ohio when Edwards votes were figured into the math, Hillary's win decreased slightly more to 8.6% from 8.8%.

So look at the Indiana SOS cite sometime after May 16, possibly May 20 for news on the provisional ballots. And one more note posted about that is that in the past the In SOS had a 15% provisional ballot acceptance rate. However many regular voters(the 8 nuns for example)were not allowed to vote due to lack of proper voter id. So as long as they get the follow up id to the registrars office by May 16 they should have no problem being accepted.

[goclark]

32. How are they getting the word out to those that voted for Obama?

There must be a way to encourage those affected to go on line for the phone number to call or ?

[caligirl]

33. I recall Obama volunteers making calls in In. had instructions to give

out as they went through their calls, in addition anyone voting a provisional due to lack of id would have been given the information at the time in the poll station. Otherwise its newspapers and tv and radio carrying the msg.